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Keep it coming Bamps, always look for your posts. When all is revealed you and Paddy are going to be the main men that helped people stay the distance on this. Thanks for your time and efforts.
GLA
Just over 12 months ago I was posting my calculations of 7-10m oz ore body and giving my reasons why and others were ridiculing those assumptions.
I never guess at I'm finding and will check my calcs from different angles.
Those that ridiculed then still do so but are now guessing what the MRE figures will be.
I haven't really seen anyone else quantifying the ore body in a scientific manner.
NCM and Ggp , brokers and Institutions have better people at it than I am and look what is happening .
NCM going like a bull at a gate maybe the fastest mine ever to get to production especially at this depth.
Brokers giving estimates way above posters estimates for MRE
Institutions ploughing in vast sums.
I can only measure what has been published but with some scientifically based assumptions, if you don't want to believe my calculations then maybe post your own calcs not guesses but you will get left behind big time.
Havieron could be the largest find in the last 50 years, to know what means you will to do some research.
It will be classed as a Tier 1 mine officially by the FS.
a World Class mine has been said by top people do some research on what that means.
The next NCM update might be astronomical with the amount of expansion drilling, it might give us some definite perimeters or on the other hand they might not find the edges.
Whatever happens it will be still open at depth.
Tier 1s keep on giving!
There's only one Havieron!
I’m gonna wait a we while longer Jerry , calculated red hot
Great post Texlax,, a few good points in there, very good points!
Personally I reckon we will see MRE of 6-10m oz. I think some are getting carried away - drilling has been upped considerably but as confident as GGP and NCM are they can only report on actuals.
As for the SP... — I believe there are a couple of Mutuals who have for some time needed to decrease their holding before reporting date, (due to their own funds regulations) and as we all know, they are not going to do it in the open market for obvious reasons.
I also believe they have not approached brokers to break the sales up over time with multiple exchanges so as to minimize the market impact. I think the brokers have said let's cut to the chase, lets get the deal done, and bought all the shares. These brokers are big and they can afford to sell them off later. Obviously it's too risky to pay the average SP price of the day as they need to sell the shares themselves over an extended period, and events beyond their control could cause the price to fall. The brokers have offered to buy the shares from the Mutuals at a per-share price tied to a fraction under the VWAP over some future period. All the brokers need to do now is sell those shares over the next few months in a way that exactly matches the VWAP, If they can beat the VWAP, all the better. Problem is, I believe we have brokers representing institutions wanting to buy considerable amounts, and they are using the exact opposite tactic... thus, the SP will be relatively rigid until the buying brokers convince their institutional buyers to step back so to speak and up their limit. When that happens and other institutions feel like they will miss the train, boat, plane.... the SP will rocket and I mean rocket. In 12 months time I guess, yes guess, 50 - 60p. 12 months after that (if we are not subject to buyout) £1.20 - £1.30 if not more (like to be conservative) I'm currently 23% down but not in the slightest bit bothered.
If I bought a Sovereign ten years ago as an investment for the future, would I be continually checking it's value... no, it's a safe long term investment!
Apologies for the waffle, just sipping some McCracken (the cheaper one)
GLA
Some great discussion today, particularly about quantifying the resource at HAV and how it translates to our SP.
My own view is that there are not many 30 / 40 / 50m oz (80m oz au eq?) discoveries with more than economic grades. Scarcity, in economic terms. None are brownfield with limited capex and, again, none are in the best mining jurisdiction in the world (AUS).
Havieron is an outlier - it’s not supposed to happen, but it has. I still quite can’t believe it, but there ya go. Look away from the MRE, and think about HAD084and the ‘low grade’ breccias.
So our asset is scarce in the strongest sense, brownfield, in AUS and we are JVd with a partner who is managing a negative $160 AISC on a separate mine at grades of 0.9 g/t and 0.5% copper. HAV high grade zone has over 3.5 g/t and 0.6% copper. Cadia and HAV are not a like for like comparison, but the conclusion is that we couldn’t have hoped for a better partner.
Back to our SP, I don’t know where we’ll be as we continually upgrade the resource, get a PFS and progress through 2021. But I do know that’s it’s inconsequential, as I’m here for 2023 - 2024 and onwards. This little exploration company will be seeing revenues from what will then be known as a generational discovery with, on top of the anomaly of this discovery and location, extremely scarce and appreciating assets (gold and copper).
For me, the above is why it’s easy for me to add, add, add to my holding. There’s a value proposition developing which, in my view, values GGP at well over £ within 24 months - not based on what our SP will be on AIM, but market value and what we will potentially be offered by royalty streamers or similar due to the points above - scarcity, scale / size, grades, risk level, limited capex.
Is my valuation and forecast based on HAV wrong? Dunno. 20p? All in. If we find another monster in the Paterson? Hold on to your butts.
Side note - I would like GGP to put more holes in Warrentina and divest, purely for cash.
What's yours Tymers?
80p area just for HAV.
Jerry. The question is what would you pay per share with a resource of 50 m oz 30% GGP as an investor 12 months what's your upper limit you would pay goes for all holders let's see how confident you are
Mickey, are you going to give us your new price target based on those numbers? I think you should.
Your probably on the money with 50m oz + no wonder SB , CB & SD are excited . Monster Buy imo
Hi Bamps .. yeah I know that's why I said you are being conservative (no harm in that) I also think the g/t will be 1 or slightly more on ave. Just a feeling reading the drill results.
Hi Jag
and that was with 15% dilution deducted and using 0.75g/t.
One of my posts this week I proved that the formula for working out the equivalent factor is too low, so when Zoros says when we get the MRE everything can be based on that is not strictly true. The more the prices rise the equivalent factor becomes out of date.
Also when prices rise the dilution factor reduces and the cut off values become out of date and the economics of the shells alter.
Higher price rises have a very positive effect on the economics of the MRE shells , increasing economical tonnages within them and the expansion of the number of the shells .
So my thinking is very similar good to know. Again I review each area of the business from operating costs to cost of sales to working capital all very boring for most but as an investor whilst Geology is important dont.loose sight of finance. We will get there 2 years and we will be somewhere around 88p , 5 years who knows
Well done bamps.. great work and I seriously hope you are correct. And that's you being conservative :-))
I always try to show my calcs as clearly as possible with why and where my assumptions have come from.
My calcs
Calculations with the Eastern Breccias
and also 1200m but not the northern extension
I think I've been very careful/conservative with my assumptions:-
"I've gridded the plan and fairly accurately I believe the area = 176,000 sq m after deduction for the dyke.
I've split the depth into 2 sections
900m deep for the 650x375 section
300m deep for the 800x500 section
2.75 breccias specific gravity
0.75g/t average breccias grade
Top 900m
900x 176,000 x 2.75x 0.75 divided 31.1=10.665m oz
Bottom 300m
300x 314,255 x 2.75 x 0.75 = 6.25m oz
Total = 16.9m oz
I've worked out the gold recovery rate is about 89% average of the breccias and sulphides
Therefore the quantities are around 15.3m oz.
The 2.75 is conservatively on the low side
the 0.75g/t may increase.
It's all about the average grade but from what I'm seeing 1g/t or less is realistic "
From these calculations I've not taken into account for the High grade zone allowing this to compensate for any waste rock.
I've used 0.75g/t to allow for the shell cut off levels.
Conclusion
@0.75g/t = 15.3m oz (most likely)
@1g/t = 23.5m oz
plus 11m gold equivalent ounces
plus any cobalt gold equivalent maybe 3m oz
These calcs take it down to about 1600m below surface.
If it continues downwards which looks very possible the mine could get to 2300m below surface.
This may be way in the future but it would add a big tonnage to the mine.
I know I said I wouldn't post the figure but getting ridiculed for a bit of fun here goes.
No matter what specific gravity or variation of grades the additional tonnage of concreted breccias would exceed 20m oz without copper, indeed after removal of 15% dilution I'm still up and over 25m oz on top of the earlier calcs which puts up to just below 50m oz without copper.