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I was trawling through this thread and noticed someone mentioned that Newcrest hold all cards in any negotiations. While they are powerful, I don’t think we should underestimate the fact that Newcrest need Havieron online quickly and that where under other circumstances a large miner could simply wait for a junior partner to run out of money before negotiating that is not an option here and provides GGP with some leverage for negotiation both with Newcrest and with any potential loan provider.
@dave
No, as an NCM shareholder I'd be happy to see NCM buy GGP at 50p. I'd view that as a very good deal for NCM -- which means, I wouldn't feel I was getting best value for my GGP shares.
If NCM bought us out at 50p, this would have been a great investment for me. But, not as good as I think it will be if we just stay the course.
Thanks Bamps & Bottle, great work, railways it will be, 100yrs of mining, 50m oz at Hav' at least 10m tons copper, plus the rest of the Greatland Gold Fields £5+ (in the Paterson)
But this may now be a little understated, as we have no idea about the Cobalt & Moly.
There is so much more to come.
Daft question. Looking to stir trouble? His post is very succinct and clear. You’ve been answered if you read it again, slowly if you must !
tmt happy to sell at 50p?
Hi Speedy
That link I put up about dilution describes 2 types of internal and external dilution.
Well the only internal waste is the Dyke but that could also be described as external if you look at it as 2 ore bodies.
External dilution has a 2m zone around the perimeter where blasting will bring in some waste rock.
The internal dilution well is there any?
I've tried to say in my posts today that the whole ore body is mineralised some zones far more than others but nevertheless mineralised.
From this I'm trying to suggest there won't be a great deal of waste rock apart from the external dilution.
I know Hannams have 15% dilution figure but that's not fixed that's a standard rate and a lot of factors can reduce it.
Being a vertical ore pipe is a huge plus, for instance Minyari has a 45 degree dipping ore body that's a big negative as the external dilution is greater.
Our Dyke though is a big negative that's 2m either side of external dilution.
An underground crusher will crush the ore to around 4" .
A ball mill could be installed at Havieron with the latest sensors to pick out waste rock.
The next option would be a dilution system to transport the ore by pipeline and dewater the other end, this would depend on water supplies and as Havieron is in a desert that may be difficult.
I'm half expecting 2 or 3 Declines needed with possibly a conveyor one coming out next to the haul road in Scallywag. The mine plan will tell us that.
Road Haulage to start with but ultimately it looks like a railway especially if Scallywag succeeds or Blackhills and PRE.
ATB:))
Hi All. Newcrest buying out Hav or GGP, in my opinion, is a non starter. SB has stated many times his approach to ROI, having 70% at the present outlay contract is fine but buying the other 25% will break that approach. As for buying GGP not a hope in hell, no one would pay for an unknown value for an asset and we would not know how much to ask for. The gambler in me says hold or add. As the drilling continues and we know more about our tenements maybe then a price can be guessed but a definitive price for the whole of GGP will very hard to find. What i do know is it is a lot more than 20p. ATB Speedy
@Bully, it just depends on the price and how big the resource is. As an NCM shareholder, I'd be happy with any price at 50p or below, and wouldn't care how they paid for it, equity, cash, or combination of the two. (As a GGP shareholder I wouldn't be happy with that price!)
I took your post (the part I quoted) as suggesting that it would be rather difficult for them. They've got more than enough cash already at the current SP, though obviously countering that, they'd have to pay a premium and it would deplete their cash reserves considerably.
I also agree with you that this is unlikely. I don't think GGP is on the market and I don't think NCM is prowling with the intent of buying.
At the moment Newcrest hold all the negotiation cards ....the reason we held back 100% ownership of Scallywag and Rudall in the Paterson is when hopefully GGP discover another tier 1 (big ask but location and expertise is on our side) then we will have some negotiation leverage.
Newcrest will NOT buy out GGP’s share of Havieron before any decision to mine is announced and the mine can be attributed a balance sheet value regardless of available capital - as for buying out the whole of GGP, in my opinion this will never happen given their very attractive JV’s.
@Bully "FOR NCM - they have a finite amount of capital they can invest. I don’t think they have the funds to fully buy GGP so would need to borrow or dilute."
NCM had US$1.7 Bn cash/cash equivalents at 31 December. Obviously they'd want to keep some cash reserve, but they could easily borrow another half a billion, or use an equity raising if they preferred, for the purpose of buying a major asset.
Their actions to date strongly indicate, IMO, that they are not looking to buy out our share of Hav or to fully acquire GGP, but it wouldn't be particularly difficult for them to do so.
Thanks for your response Bamps and bully
In my eyes if it’s working for both of them, then why change it.
I suppose Ncm budget so much money per year for exploration and why not leave it to someone else, especially if you have already had one great result.
Good luck all
Hi Ben
Personally I can't see a takeover/ merger by NCM at this time.
NCM priorities at the moment are to keep their production rates up
Cadia and Lihir are in transition , huge sums needed for next phases.
Telfer is running low, the AISC's in last weeks reports are rising rapidly, one part has $1700 AISC can't be making money.
Red Chris and Havieron have Declines to fund and exploration costs.
Too many costs at the moment to start thinking of takeovers in my opinion
Hi Bamps
In your view what do you think the chances of a merger is.
Considering ncm are paying for our exploration, or do you think all parties are happy with the 25/75 contracts.
I can understand that this is good for short term,as Ggp happy having there wages being paid and I suppose Ncm happy they have there exploration being done for them.
But eventually this will come to a head.
Thanks in advance
I first bought into JLP, THR and GGP all about the same time. Wish I had kept JLP.
I think JLP were 3.1p at the time and sold at a slight loss to put more into SXX or might have been 88e. Both made quite a significant loss.
My trading adventures have been somewhat disastrous tbh but thankfully GGP has saved my bacon.
Hi Shiner
That was a good move.
That's 2 shares of mine gone from the 2p to 20p on a 12 month span
ATB:))
Thanks Ben
Glad you enjoyed it
ATB:))
Morning Bamps and bottle
Thanks for your time and informing us less knowledgeable investors.
Keep up the good work:))))
Morning Bamps, I just wanted to thank you,. Not only did I follow you into GGP but last Nov I followed you into JLP. The penny seems to have dropped with the IIs as well as the PIs.
Atb Shiner