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Speedy, I am so sorry to learn about your wife, it must also have been a very upsetting situation for you mate.Glad to hear she is home.My very best wishes to you both and that the recovery will be quick.
Viking
Best wishes to Speedy and wife hoping for a full recovery.
@ Speedy,
I don't post on this board much these days, but I wish all the best to you Speedy and a speedy recovery to Mr's Speedy. This would be a great board if all posters adopted your manners.
All the best Mr. and Mrs. Speedy here’s to a safe and swift recovery.
Hi MiddleEastMoney,
Go to GGP Chat: https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/index.php?&sid=7e5c8c9d6a6258c08a0757c45f031c87
In the search box, type ,Ortex
Look at data for last Friday, its actually 88.84m ie, shares on loan ,of which only 20.35m are for JPM as shown on the FCA register. The rest must be for either HNWI's and/or a collection of other organisations, whom individually own less than half a percent and so are not reported.
There is a lag between what is actually shown and what is actually on loan as I understand.
It may well be, that not all of what is shown as on loan, is actually being utilised/shorted,. It's very hard to tell IMHO.
Nevertheless Ortex is the only source as far as I am aware of for reporting the data.
Here's wishing a full recovery for Mrs Speedy. Just gone through it with one of our family members too.
Even after all the pressure the NHS have come under during covid, they are still ready and waiting and performing miracles daily.
Best wishes Speedy.
Z
Hi Speedy, great effort by you too by all accounts. Best wishes to you and your wife, Mremc2
middleEastMoney @13.31 - the data comes from daily Ortex updates. Currently 87m shares on loan.
ATB l-a
Sorry to hear about the wife Speedy, hope for a full recovery and quick return to home, DM
Best wishes speedy hope your wife gets a full recovery , from a sunny spain
I’m hoping for a speedy recovery for you both :o)
Best wishes
Under all sorts of pressures and they still pull out all the stops and save lives. Best wishes for a full and sustained recovery to you both Speedy.
Hi Red. Thanks for the kind words. ATB Speedy
Hey Speedy - so sorry to hear about Mrs Speedy but glad to hear a happy ending - sending best wishes for a strong and continued recovery for your good lady. Red.
Hi Tig Laid up in bed because i am an old man trying do a young mans thing. It never rains but it pours and Mrs speedy had a stroke on Sunday afternoon and i had to pick her up and drive as fast as pos to A and E where they saved her life as i watched. Nothing but praise for our NHS heros. She is now recovering at home and all looks OK. We will see you at the next stag meet come rain or shine. ATB Speedy
If you overthink everything maybe you would never invest in anything.
So sometimes I just like to simplify things.
Do I think Havieron has a very good chance of being one of Australia’s largest
present day mines?
What’s our market cap?
For me, for now at least, that’ll do.
We’ve had all sorts from the shorting and manipulation team. They came in their droves, some were just here to abuse and disrupt, some though, get through the cracks and are clever enough to look positive when behind the scenes they aren’t. Been here for at least 6 years and I’ve seen them all, the last few standing are extremely clever or snide depending how you look at it. All imo of course but I bet some of the other long term holders will agree and definitely don’t think 11,13, even 17 is fair value atm! Then you get people posting this morning, that first dipped their toe in, in June ffs saying we’re at fair value. Clear trader and won’t see them when their up 10% most of the time I just read stuff from bamps and a handful of others but when s##t stinks you have to engage just my view though ;-)
@Zoros - So you follow condescending diatribe, with an apology for it, then follow that up with more condescending diatribe, and continue with the holier than thou attitude. Congratulations!
You have obviously have not believed the short topic to be an issue from the start, and therefore, done absolutely no analysis of it. Yet you are prepared to dismiss it blindly.
The principal short started on September 16th 2020, 2 years not 3 years ago. From the initial position the short has increased 4 fold to over 88 million now, in that time the share price has decreased by more than 50%. Additionally, if you had done any analysis you would realise that 30-40% of all shares transacted in 2022 are related to the shorts. Without these the low volume this year would have been a trickle. No one is selling any volume (apart from you know who), and the SP has continued to decline.
Some may ask why September 2020, well that was when we were first added to the GDXJ, and the price spiked, additionally PI's continued to jump in on the continuous SP rise and the Scallywag hype, and GGP hit its all time high of 38p. Yes the price had probably got ahead of itself, and possibly good reason for shorts to be opened. However, the SP has now retraced to pre GDXJ days, when the market cap was just under $600M (mentioned by MrEMC2 in relation to the 2020 AGM), so why do they continue to increase the number on loan. Especially when everybody knows we have had 2 MRE's, confirmation of an ever growing ore body (via numerous fantastic drill results), and the possibility of GGP finding another elephant. It does not add up, which I could also say about your determination that 11-12p is currently fair value.
The share price is being supressed for some reason, it would be good to know why, and perhaps we will find out on day. In the meantime I guess we will have simply wait for Newcrests next resource release, and all of the other fantastic news coming out of the company.
All at a supposed fair value of 11-12p!
N.B. Ortex has spent thousands upon thousands of pounds updating security on their application, in order to prevent us from downloading and analysing data related to the shorts. This might not be solely down to issues raised related to GGP, but I do find it some what of a coincidence.
Hi Jiffy, how do you calculate a 87m short position, the various registers only show approx 0.5% or 24m ?
Thanks
Somebody mentioned we probably have only used $35m of the loan facility, $16m fund raise.
So hopefully we could have between $30-$40m am I in the right ballpark or way off ?
Many thanks Ben
Excuse the question but once Newcrest pay the $60m and we have paid off the loan facility.
What is the likely figure we will have in the bank including the fund raise and the grant of the Australian government for drilling purposes!
ie what would be our state of play going forward.
Thanks in advance
That makes the SP 14p then?
So we're close?
Z
In my opinion there was a good deal of investor appitite for all mining shares back in 2020 and if the GGP market cap was 'out of whack' so was every 'Tom, Dick and Harry' mining explorer at that time. In GGP's case there were excellent and exciting drilling results from Havieron but on top of that 'misleading' hype about the drilling prospects at Scallywag (and it took only first set of results from that second tenement to burst some very high hopes).
Referring back to my notes from the AGM on 14th December 2021 the Chairman said to me that £600m was a more realistic market cap for an explorer company (when talking about GGP's previous £1.3bn market cap). That was before GGP's MRE2 so in my opinion 11-12p is too low for the current state of affairs at Havieron yet alone for GGP as a whole. GLA
Well that sorted me out! Naughty Zoros.
The responses are mixed.
The recommends are heavily in favour of shorting being the culprit for this SP. The jury has spoken.
I ask this in all sincerity: if shorting didn't exist @ GGP, where would the SP be now after all this 'catalyst' reporting by SD or others? 20p, 30p, more?
If that were the case, where would it be then once more good news came out in future:
dfs / debt structuring / motherlode increases in size / more mre's etc etc. Would the SP be around say 50p...before production maybe? Then @ production maybe 80p, even a £1?
Simply because the shorters have gone home.
I apologise if my "tone" was condescending, I didn't mean it to be that way but IMO, this share is fairly priced for where we are currently. And IMO shorting 80m shares out of an available 4Bn shares is pitifully insignificant.
I guess it is ALL irrelevant anyway if we all believe that the share will be: "X" when we go to production, because all these 'problems' with the SP will be in the past and we will all be 'rich'.
So the question still needs answering: What is the purpose of the shorting that has been ongoing for atleast 3 years, if after these three years, we are still at fair value? Why haven't the shorters achieved their aim of driving the stock into the dust, either as a proxy for an interested party or for their own investors?
37p in the past was simply down to greed and everyone piling in all at once. It soon sorted itself out.
I wonder how many on here have worked out what they think the SP should be worth based on where we are CURRENTLY. Interesting to see their results perhaps?
I promise I won't upset you again by mentioning 'shorters' in any of my posts.
Enjoy the shade.
Z
In an earlier post somebody wrote in response to zoros, "You make no explanation of why the SP rose to 37p"
In my opinion it rose to 37p due to investor greed. Investors saw pound signs, ignored the fundamentals and piled in regardless.
At 37p the company would have been approaching a £2 billion market cap.... that was way out of whack with where GGP were at the time and despite the huge strides we have made is still way out of whack with where we are now, in my opinion.
A share price of 11p-12p is about right for where we are in my estimation.
I will add more at under 10p, if it never goes there I am happy with my holding for now.
We have all made mistakes, the only way we improve is to admit them and learn from them.