Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Defence, that is a £140 mln valuation, double from current SP. If you would have done any research and perhaps read PaddyGall's posts you would understand how utterly ridiculous that is.
MS
Absolutely not,I started with ten aim bets of 1k each,I’m averaging 70% down on each but over 100% profit here and Boyle I have the whole 10k here. Not met many who have made money overall on aim,I’m at break even but only because I took a punt after NM
Have you done well on AIM Stuart? I’m down about £35k in 3 years. Luckily the etherium rise softened the blow a little bit. Got £20k in ggp now, will add more on fall backs during the rise
There are very few hostile offers for minnows.
From a Telfer point of view they will effectively own all of Hav, as NC will own 75% and GGP will get Telfer to process their 25%, either by outright sale or toll processing. GGP would not want any kind of sale until all the drill results are known anyway.
I still favour a strategic stake by NC a la Solgold.
100% agree Stu - that's the dream scenario as far as I'm concerned as well.
GLA Paddy
antigua18
Agreed! I haven't been invested here for the last 5+ years for a poxy 4p FFS!
I for one would be seriously fcuked off it were to happen (but have always feared that it is probably likely and that we are going to get royally shafted and robbed of any future considerable value of GGP's assets!)
:-(
IMO a new JV on BH announced at the same time as rc drill results and a possible sell of firetower is in my mind the best we can hope for prior to nc next set of step out results which the more knowledgable are saying is where things really start to get interesting. Personally I want this model to continue so in many years time we’re left with 25% of a few fully fledged mines ,dreaming of course ,but don’t invest on aim unless you are willing to dream as it’s the only consolation you will have when you lose it all like most do on the market,but every now and then,you get a solg,and GGP IMO is a compelling example of that very same potential and it is derisked each bit of news we receive GLA
The offer has been made folks,in the form of a JV,why the hell would they make an offer when all they need to do is drill and derisk and earn their 70%,the offer will be for the remaining 5% as per the agreement,don’t start this rubbish like last time with newmont,it’s all ramping rubbish. Long way to go here still,did anyone see the amount of drill holes at Cadia I’m nc presentation. Good lord,we’re on 14
Thanks for your opinion sicilian. My view is based upon corporate reputation and the impact on the willingness of other junior explorers giving a foot in the door. A hostile bid during a legal farm in agreement would be a disaster in reputation so terms and at large corporate BoD level I believe this would be unacceptable for a global company. As to whether it could be challenged legally would go to the contract detail within the farm I but I would be amazed if the lawyers had not covered this off.
That is the basis of my view.
I would welcome the background to your view.
ATB
Tell that to Numis dealer55,also did we have HAV drill results 3 years ago. I mean if you genuinely don’t believe this will go to 4p may I ask wtf you invested here for in gold exploration on aim?
Newcrest don't have to offer anything for Havieron - they will already have 70% of it automatically once they hit they're milestones and if it's as good as we all hope and think then it on its own will be sufficient to keep Telfer going while the other assets are advanced.
The other assets in the area won't be as attractive to other parties as they wouldn't have access to Telfer and would have the massive capex associated with that but WTFDIK.
Cheers Paddy
4p is a joke as is being at 2p for almost 3 years.
Can’t understand why people think that a 4p offer would be fair given what Hav could be worth.
Every set of drill results hopefully prove up further and build worth. It’s a given that NC need something like Hav in order to secure future of Telfer so why would they offer such a poxy offer?
Unfortunately pi’s will have little say over any offer as Institutions will ultimately decide and have little interest in what’s fair. However I for one hope that any offer is far north of 4p and based on what is proved up.
I tend to agree with the view point that NC will simply buy those assets that they want, if GGP agree to sell them. NC would not be interested in acquiring the entire shareholding of GGP as that would leave them with assets to dispose of which would be nothing but a distraction.
Lets assume that Havieron is the real deal and look beyond Hav, GGP has a lot of work to do still and IMHO there is a good 4-5 years left in exploring patterson range east, panorama and other assets. Along the way other assets may be acquired.
GLA Keep the faith and patience.
Thanks Sicilian,
Just wanted to chat it through as the subject gets alluded to quite often.
Urbanracer good discussion - I think I am right but I can see the other side too.
JerseyCrew - your points about credibility and legal consequences are just plain wrong.
I should have added - in my view any hostile action from Newcrest would in my mind be unthinkable given their position on the world stage of gold mining. Should a hostile move take place it would be a clear warning to any other junior explorer that this company could not be trusted and you could look elsewhere before considering a JV / Farm in - they simply would lose corporate credibility from a trust perspective. I suspect there might be legal consequences as well given the farm in deal entered into.
ATB
We exist to prove up and sell assets or JV. 4 p seems ridiculously low however we cans sell to just anyone. Who realistically would be in the running. Let’s see and we need to prove up what we have. Let’s see.
Well constructed post Urbanracer - I share your view 100%
ATB
Sicilian,
Totally disagree but appreciate your views.
Cheers.
Prospector,
No misunderstanding here; your response is exactly how I see it.
Obliged.
UR
5p my prediction but Think with interest atm till an offer comes it my push to 3.5p imho
Bear in mind that shareholders here are quite jumpy. Only recently, people on here (not me) were selling in the 1.70s hoping to buy in cheaper on the off chance that BH and FT were bad or as NC's drill results were quarterly. Now many of those same shareholders are buying back in the 1.90s.
Small PIs don't like holding. They also get twitchy over small price movements. This cuts both ways.
Now imaging the following. How many shareholders here would refuse 4p today? More importantly, if a takeover bid was made and the price shot up in anticipation of its success, how many shareholders here would be willing to lose all that profit if the takeover bid failed? How many would prefer to lock in a substantial return.
I remember the Man Utd takeover by the Glazers. They got that deal home because the shareprice had takeover priced in as they tried to acquire 75%. If the takeover then didn't happen because not enough holders accepted, the share price would have gone down significantly and every holder not accepting the offer would have lost a lot of money (in the short to medium term). So of course, they got their 75% (and then 98%).
I think somewhere around 4p would do it at the moment and for NC that would be a steal.
A lot of misunderstandings here. No company can just take over GGP without shareholder agreement. In terms of hostile takeovers, any entity must make an offer in order to acquire more than 30% of a UK company - this is regulated by the European Takeover Directive. If such an offer is made, it will be put to a vote by the shareholders.
Urbandancer, Newcrest won't care about GH. GH is just a former banker / mouthpiece for GGP and is very disposable for them. They care about only about feeding more ore into the Telfer plant. That lies in Havieron and in the wider Paterson area, which lies with GGP, in whole or (in future) in part.
Also, I don't get the point about losing forever GGP's exploration and development work. Newcrest can explore Patterson much quicker, with better resources and with better expertise than GGP.