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In all fairness it’s a point I’ve been curious about and @zoros last e mail is clearer. My question to myself is what does our 12.5p include, and it’s clearly based on the 5m/5.5m oz view. So the point is what is making up the difference between 12.5, 27, 60p and this board has clarified that really well with plenty of references and online links. Just sit tight. Sit on hands. Read, read, read and it all becomes clear. GLA
AISC for Havieron estimated at around $900. Gold at $1750. 5m ounces = 23p. 10m ounces = 46p.
Zoros - You fail to understand the importance of capex in your analysis. Choosing to focus on what's contained within (and even these figures are subjective and open to change) is only half the picture. The capital required to extract (mining), transport (rail-road), process (facilities ala Telfer) and then deliver to customer can be crushing to the point where some companies falter and wither under the strain of this inability to raise the funding (SXX is the prime example here)
The relative capex requirements of Alpala and Havieron are at opposite ends of the spectrum. For GGP they can raise their capex requirements ($50m) in the blink of an eye, SOLG need around $3bn-$4bn. The difference is huge, HUGE. SOLG will not be able to raise that capital on its own and don't forget this is Ecuador and any capital provider will want a risk premium for their funding to reflect the political risk. Australia it ain't
Havieron has Telfer processing facility, we have Newcrest (the best block cave miner in the world) as our partner, we have a high grade discovery with upside and potential elsewhere in the discovery, low AISC, low capex and low political risk...and our surrounding tenements are highly prospective
I'm not dissing SOLG. I believe it will be taken out well before mining. mather knows this as well. He's playing a waiting game. SOLG shareholders will enjoy a decent pay day and I wish them well
Lostinspace69.
Where did you reference that A.I.S.C.
are we building another processing plant ?
Read chartbusters old posts. He predicted the demise of solgold months ago. He is probably the only one here with real pedigree in the mining business and believes 20 million ounces from Havieron is feasible from the data released so far. Couple that with Dales presentation and Paddys map the price of the share it's far north of where we are today.
How much would it cost to mine Havieron economically, build the transport infrastructure and then build the processing facility? All in? $4bn? We get it all for less than $350m!!!! Even if that cost rises to $500m, that's just over our own market cap. For SOLG the capex demands for Alpala are over 8-10x their market cap. yes, that's neutral for GGP and 10x for SOLG
Go go Schlemiel well pointed out, im sure there sre dome posters who just like to be negative to scare investors to sell. Its very black and white and any one thats done a small percentage of research should know everything you have pointed out
Well informed posts Schlemiel and coupled with Chart's expert blockbuster of info as ever, hopefully this puts doubting Nellies to waste somewhat.
I do always agree that both sides of the story should be pondered as all are informative if well researched and knowledgeable and I learn along the way as a bonus not being a mining aficionado. However, even given the facts we have now without a figure on the actual MRE, we are vastly undervalued at 12.5p. Even I can see that..
Look at how NCM managed to ramp up their reserves (from 4m to 19m) by further exploration and moving from open-pit to block cave to exploit new discoveries. This is almost Havieron copied
'The mine opened in 1977 as a joint venture between BHP Billiton and Newmont Mining. In 1990, a merger between Newmont Australia Limited and BHP Gold Limited resulted in the creation of Newcrest Mining, with ownership of the Telfer Mine now lying with Newcrest.[12][13] The Telfer gold mine was expanded in 1991,[14] and in June 1995, the mine reserves were 3.8 million troy ounces, with resources at 7.3 million troy ounces. The annual production was 370,000 to 380,000 troy ounces of ore.[15] In 1997, the mine reached the milestone of having produced 5 million ounces of gold.[8] Open cut mining was suspended in August 2000 due to high operating costs. The closure of the mine came one year ahead of schedule as production of underground ore was well below mill capacity and therefore not viable.[8] High production costs were primarily caused by the presence of cyanide soluble copper in the open pit ore.[13] Newcrest then focused on exploratory drilling for new minerals.[12]'
Second mining period from 2002
'In 2002, Newcrest Mining announced a new redevelopment project worth $1 billion,[16] after discovering new mineral areas and a reserve base of some 19 million troy ounces of gold and 640,000 tonnes (710,000 short tons) of copper.[17] The redevelopment expanded underground mining areas, deepened open pits, constructed a processing plant and power station, and built a new gas supply line from Port Hedland.[12][18] The Telfer mine is not connected to the Western Australian power grid but instead produces its own power from natural gas via a 450 km purpose built pipeline. The power station on site is able to produce 138 MW of power.[19] The focus changed from open pit mining to underground mining, and Telfer became one of Australia's largest gold mines,[12] second only to Kalgoorlie's Super Pit.[20]
The mine reopened in November 2004, after commissioning of the processing plant and, initially as an open cut mine, from March 2006 also with an underground operation.[13][19] '
In short ask yourselves this...why are Newcrest chicking all they've got at this and salivating and chomping at the bit to get this resource found ? It's got to be an elephant!
Zoros knows all this, his posts over on the SOLG are in exactly the same vein but from the opposite side - bigging up GGP and negative on SOLG!!
He is entitled to his opinion and I think he generally talks a lot of sense - guess he just likes to be a pessimist!
You don’t know what your talking about your $200 an oz value for gold in the ground is comedy. Try more like $800-$1000 per oz with little to no Capex required due to Telfer up the road.
Looking through the posts then there is a lot of good positive information to keep this post on the straight and narrow. There was a mention about Sprott portfolio driven by algorithms, but the Sprott Geo's and MoneyMen still have to make fact based decisions. Obviously there can be particular factors that help them make the decisions to buy certain stock but also there can be simple knowledge factors that can maybe help influence them. Check what Sprott's Steve Todoruk, says in this video at 19 minutes in:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPHn0fufIqY
If there is confidence in GGP from Sprott, then that's confidence enough for me.
Bingo Tom the bomb, the valuation here is still very conservative at 15p as it’s highly factored And risk averse which is what you would expect from such companies..A worst case scenario if you will. But as you illustrate a lot of the progress since has not been factored in such as the recently announced successfully step out let alone the high grade breccias..once these are proven up and formally announced we are indeed looking at multiples of today’s SP...then add to the mix hitting even decent grades at one of the other projects, which currently have almost no value attached, and well I cant imagine what that will do to the SP. the geo technical work has so far proven itself and I simply cannot believe that we will not hit at least one from the multiple targets in the next few months.
I mean zeros no point even letting on how undervalued solg is I would keep that one under your hat your calcs seem bulletproof ..just silently walk away and put everything in solg and let us suffer with this dog of a share...ffs pmsl.
Well said Spratt......whatever method was used to find the stuff successfully at Havieron they will use at Scallywag. Can’t wait for lead up to first Scally results!
Every weekend without fail some complete numpty comes on here with nonsense and gets the whole board to be dominated by it.
This clown has no inside info, not evident contribution, just a manipulation of figures and a very bad effort at it also.
One phone call earlier today made me grin. I dare Zoros to open a short if he thinks this is a dud and we can all watch him get wiped out....guaranteed.
Stop wasting our time fool
Spy - why the derogatory coments? What has actually upset you about my statements?
I am not deramping, I am a LTH. I was simply trying to untangle the value of the SP before a MRE and after. The AISC is deployed after the quantity of the mineral is known. Calculations can then begin to determine how much it will cost to get the stuff out of the ground and sell to market. Before any MRE's, IE......when the volume and its value is not confirmed or is "inferred", the market assumes a variable rate historically, which today is between $150 - $200 / Oz.
I am surpirsed die hard posters still confuse the two.
TomE - if you can't be bothered to refer to previous posts and simply want to jump in when you feel like it and ask questions which have already been aswered - try and atleast keep it civil will you?
Why are anonymous people happy to slot individuals on the internet without reading carefully. Would you behave like this in person?
In summary - |I have not deramped GGP or SOLG. I am trying to highlight why the stock(s) are perceived to be either under or over valued at todays current price.
There is no intention to p i s s on your chips guys, OK. Don't feel insulted by someone trying to sort the wheat from the chaff. We are in this together and we live by each of our decisions. I am NOT insulting your integrity....OK?
Jezus.
Zoros clown filtered as I can only stand so much ****e !
Think Zorros is just a ‘glass half empty’ kinda guy - pretty sure he’s invested here as he’s often on the SOLG board waving the GGP flag lol
Well Zoros,you certainly started a long discussion with your thoughts, I suppose we want to be optimistic and dont want any doubt to where we are heading, I look at this way we are all surfers and riding a monster wave that only appears on very rare occasions so jump on and enjoy a fantastic ride,after all there is room for everyone! G.L.A.
Everyone's entitled to share their own opinion, it won't change the shareprice. I'm looking forward to seeing the next results and the MRE but the only calculations that really matters is how much Newcrest or anyone else is going to pay GGP.
@zoros
I get what you are saying. Totally. And most of this conversation is people talking past each other.
But what you are saying is based on a misunderstanding of how markets work. Maybe you understand but that understanding hasn't flowed through to what you've said here.
Share prices are not based on what is proven. They are based on what the market thinks the shares are worth. I'll illustrate with another of my investments, BP. Mainly, they produce and sell oil. Earlier this year, the price of oil went negative. BP share prices did not. Why not? Because the market assumed, rightly, that the price of oil would go up in future. At that point in time there was no proven value to what BP produces, but the market valued it, anyway.
Were BP shares overpriced at that point in time? By the logic you've presented here, they were. But everyone knew that wasn't reality, that they have oil and they will be able to sell it for something more than $0/barrel.
We may not know exactly how much gold is there, of course not. When we do, we still won't know what it's worth. What's gold in the ground worth? What's THIS gold in the ground worth? It's pretty much a racing certainty that this gold in the ground is worth more than Solgold's because it won't take the same CAPEX and will be in production sooner. How much more? That's as much of a guess as the guess as to how much is there. We're now getting into very educated guesses. We're pretty well past the uncertainty of "will this be mined?" It's going to be mined. We don't know what the MRE will be, but even then, the E stands for "Estimate."
It's all guesses. That doesn't mean that the right value is 0 or 1p. The facts we certainly know put everyone's guesses well beyond that, rightly so. Your guess of $200 for gold in the ground is probably very low.
Yes, that value has been used at times in the past. The problem is that it doesn't really fit all that well with the very low CAPEX here, the high Cu concentration, or the rapidly increasing price of gold.
The value of gold in the ground is NOT directly proportional to the POG. Increasing POG does not increase AISC significantly. A large increase in POG means a large, if not equal, increase in price of gold in the ground. Gold is at historic highs, and likely to climb. We have the option to mine if the price offered for gold in the ground is too low. Your valuation is full of guesses, too, and some of them are suspect.
I'm with Spy....Why ? been here only 19 months and
some posters just try too hard with their rhetoric / reasoning....
Chart Reddirt Paddy Schemiel Spy Merc & many more including the infamous Mickey etc...
post reseached or informed Australian info along with a few encouraging ramps !!
Hopefully not a naive investor as I have a lot to loose... but Havieron is progressing very well
Slightly more nervous with the 'initial' gold grade predictions at Scally to be fair...
compared with Hav... but maybe better copper grades to be mined...
content to remain sitting on my hands to see what unfolds
over the coming months !! Best Rup
There is absolutely no point whatsoever in trying to argue a case which is not factually data based. By all means hypothesise.
I cannot remember how many times I have used the phrase - "" be patient /have patience "". 10 days time , all being well , we will all be presented with FACTS which will start to crystallise and narrow ( or expand ) the criteria on which we can base our dreams.
Tonight I discovered an old friend who is similarly invested to myself , and who had no idea that I was " Tig ". It'sa very small world. WE had a fascinating discussion. We both are expecting great things, and I am a huge optimist. BUT we are both disciplined and sensible enough to recognise that the future will be disclosed only when those in the know reveal all of the actual facts.
I personally believe that , if Scally turns up trumps , and also remembering that Copper also plays a huge part in all of these calcula tions ( CU prices now at record levels ), that we will be looking at a pre - Xmas SP well in excess of 50p , But if it is only 35p,I will be more than delighted.
Whatever , it is going to be a very good xmas.
Have patience , and hope. Looking forward to seeing some of you at the Stig on the River in 10days time.
Tig