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I’m with you Zelos, a railway makes total sense.
If other deposits are found, it shouldn’t cost too much to extend the track, and Telfer becomes the processing hub for everything within a 100km of Telfer.
I’m not suggesting it is done now, but if they do start to find other deposits then it’s a no brainier.
Hi Bamps,
You say it is not possible for Hemi to achieve above 500,000ozpa past halfway but their DFS directly contradicts your comment.
Take a look at De Grey's DFS on page 14:
https://degreymining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230928-DEG-ASX-DFS-Announcement-Executive-Summary-Combined-lodgement.pdf
The Hemi DFS shows a mine plan with most of its 12 year mine life above 500,000 ozpa. The life of mine average is already above 500,000ozpa. In the 12 year plan, the production rate drops for the last 2 years.
Their DFS is already outdated. They updated their resource estimate 5 months after the June 2023 resource estimate and can already extend the >500,000ozpa mine life by another 2 years.
You say they cannot extend the pit but they already say they can.
If you think the Hemi DFS is wrong and that they will not be able to sustain 500,000ozpa past halfway then our conversation can end squarely on that. I am confident their DFS is accurate.
Hi Malva
I personally think you haven’t grasped the mine plan very I’ve itemised a mining plan for the 6 pits and to sustain a 500k oz plan passed halfway down is not possible.
You remark about the open at depth but they’ve not found much at present and will stope it. They are very long thin thrust faults they will be expensive to stope as they are very spread out the capex will be high. Havieron ore body is straight down and compact so the decline will serve all the stopes and the future bulk mine.
I think you are blinded by Love of Hemi and can’t really see through this mine plan and you don’t really understand the mining plan of Havieron. I’ve spent many hours planning a mining sequence for both and I don’t see what you are seeing.
The smaller targets at Hemi are very irregular and have a sizeable dilution problem whereas Havieron internal dilution is low and whole dilution is only 6% +3% to include paste fill coming out with the bulk mine if that happens.
Enough said from me I’m not invested in Hemi and I’m not that interested in it to be honest.
Well I think that article says it all “sustainability “ is the in word, CO2 reduction, solar, wind and gas power station.
Sending their copper concentrate to Port Hedland.
This suggests they will build the plant there to produce copper concentrate. They will also take in other ores from other mines notably Calibre from Antipa but also targets to the west like Bulldog and Ggp’s Citadel Hill to the east. These are within trucking distances of Winu are small enough for trucking to be viable.
Winu is sat on a very large land package, I can’t find anything published of this exploration.
Winu is sat on roads/ tracks to Port Hedland by the look of things so makes sense to go that way than Telfer.
Hey Bamps i read that message and Im sure we used to sing a similar rugby song in my youth🤣🤣🤣🤣 I can lt repeat it on here will be barred . Good luck
Https://www.australianmining.com.au/rio-seeks-approval-for-winu-copper-whopper/#mobile-site-navigation
“ Should the project receive an environmental tick of approval, first production could come as early as 2024.”
https://amp.smh.com.au/business/companies/rio-tinto-s-green-vision-for-giant-pilbara-copper-mine-20231206-p5epge.html
https://www.riotinto.com/-/media/Content/Documents/Invest/Reserves-and-resources/2021/RT-Winu-reserves-resources-2021.pdf?rev=f5f9153801904622b652035860d015b4
Narrow gauge railroad, running between all the sites?
What do you think Bamps?
Well, we are going to be big, very big.
Greatland Gold Fields £5 + 70%
MH - That workforce needs to be kept busy.
Crack the whip hey.
Agree that if the gold copper at Winu is worth billions than it makes sense to invest millions to get it processed, and if that’s a purpose built rail line then they need to do it. I don’t want Telfer being solely reliant on Havieron as I’m worried about the risk that creates.
And....
Don't forget the copper. Forrest built his own railway line from scratch, think 300 KL so building another one for 90 Kl is nothing especially if it links up with other deposits. DM
Getting ore from Winu to Telfer is uneconomic, not viable to truck that quantity to Telfer no matter what AISC. You wouldn’t run a mine like that.
There’s plenty of smaller targets all around Telfer.
The status of Telfer at the moment is precarious , ore is due to run out CY 25 that is June 24 onwards.
Rumours are around that there is more orebodies around the pits, I asked Shaun about this and he was stumped he didn’t know about or didn’t want to say.
The only thing I’ve found published is an old section from around 2002 which shows an ore body under the airport.
Getting the ore from Havieron is still critical to keep Telfer going.
The open pit is likely to run out first, NCM are not likely to invest millions for another cut back.
There is still some life in the underground though. The AISC at Telfer is going to remain high.
Let’s say gold goes down to 1400.
Hi Bamps,
The higher OPVM in the upper portion of pits at Hemi is also the reason why it has a higher project NPV than Havieron.
All of these ounces are feasible and planned for the open pit. The 10,000 OPVM at havieron includes breccia which is not all included in the SLOS, so also tapers like at Hemi. Both assets can grow their OPVM at depth so they aren't different.
The higher OPVM nearer to surface at Hemi means less capital expenditure to access ore. Having lots of ounces at depth and less at surface would mean it would be more capital intensive.
6 open pits near surface is highly attractive compared to having one big pit.
Drilling to date at Hemi indicates 15 years life of mine at >500,000ozpa. All pits are open at depth and will easily increase the life of mine much further than 15 years. I am not sure why you say Hemi is short lived when there is nothing to suggest that. On top of the >500,000ozpa over 15 years and extension to resource at depth that would already increase life of mine, there are also lots of local discoveries which could push Hemi above 600,000ozpa and underground options which could be operated in tandem for even higher total production rate over multiple decades.
Similar to the Paterson, The Mallina basin is a high potential postcode likely to make more discoveries over this time and extend Hemi's lifespan.
There is nothing wrong with seeing other highly successful gold assets. De Grey has a $2.4bn market capitalisation and high government interest for these reasons. It does not have a high NPV for no reason. I know you may not agree with why it has such a high market capitalisation but that company has done well for itself. Havieron can also do very well for itself once it starts a bulk mining operation like at Cadia and Hemi.
Telfer needs ore for its future viability Bamps. If it can process 22million tonnes a year it needs ore. That workforce needs to be kept busy. Where’s the ore coming from over the next decade ??
All this talk of trucking ore to Telfer from Winu is just not feasible.
Callum probably doesn’t realise they’re looking at 30m tons a year.
You divide that by 356 days and 180 tons per truck for a 3 bed truck that’s 469 truck loads per day everyday it’s just not viable, economical suicide.
500m tons divided by 30m for 17 years.
I can’t believe people are still talking about.
Timber Trader, my father lived in both Ontario and Quebec provinces, Canada and he thought nothing of driving 50 miles to do his shopping. It is not an issue.
Gonna be more now they need submarines to get it out ! ……, only joking a lot to look forward to gla
MH01, it’s possible that the aisc for Telfer could be $1500, and I think Havieron could be much much closer to $500.
The maths of both are undeniable, unless one thinks gold is about to collapse. In which case, you shouldn’t be here.
Wasn’t our AISC about $650 not sure if that included the +10% agreement, but if we add 50% for inflation costs that’s roughly a $1000 !
So looking rosy all round!
From what I’ve watched and read online a gold price of USD1500 is uneconomical for a lot of gold companies. They’d go out of business. They need an income that produces free cash flow for survival and growth. Break even and below is no good for anyone in the industry. The central bank buying globally now really hints that gold is viewed again as money and there is no reason for the price to drop to US$1500. The East see gold as a safe haven and store of value. Fiat is being devalued so quickly now.
Indeed eye watering! Gold may be at the start of a massive bull run now, but it won’t always be the case - the numbers aren’t so good at 1500 gold so hopefully, if we do end up with 100% + Telfer the AISC is nearer 1000/oz than 1500/oz
Dream scenario and that’s proper eye watering 😊🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🥂🥂
Let’s say gold is $2500 and ounce and AISC $1500 to be conservative, so $1000 profit per ounce. If Telfer was producing 200,000 ounces a year and Havieron another 200,000 ounces a year, a total of 400,000 ounces.
At $1,000 profit an ounce = $400,000,000 USD profit. That’s a lot of free cash to pay down debt rather quickly plus invest in other projects etc etc. After say 3 years GGP should be debt free.
You can change assumptions on annual production plus annual profit per ounce to arrive at various annual free cash flow. The economics do look good.
Let’s say 250,000 ounces for Telfer and 250,000 for Havieron, total 500,000 ounces.
Using above figures of $1,000 profit per ounce is $500,000,000USD free cash flow. Let’s now change gold prices to $3,000 and profit per ounce per to $1500. Free cash flow is now $750,000,000USD. The range of possibilities are fantastic if GGP can buy both Telfer plus Hav plus the other Paterson JVs from Newmont. Buy it all. Bank funding would be paid back in a couple of years.
Afternoon All I hope you are all well!
If and that’s if we can purchase the both , just imagine how much money we will have for exploration, it could be quite scary what we could find/do!
Let’s just get this sorted and then a stress free life will come to all invested!
All the best Ben