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Is this the bottom do we reckon or are we yet to see the bottom?
This is as low as it has been for a while.....112.....but I think we could see a fall to around 105p myself. If the statement is poor next week then 80p perhaps. That is the bear case....the bull case is this is very low with so many contracts and lots of cash and 130 is cheap.
GFRD the 5-year Return on Capital employed, is a solid 12.5%.
No fireworks just solid slow gains.
A slow burner and you need lots of patience.
C.
Yeah it'll come good and fly eventually. Decent buy at the end there
Not following this closely but have a very small position. What statement are you expecting next week? I note HY was up at the end of June but unlikely interim results would be out so quickly. Is it documented somewhere there is s trading statement on 15/7??
Looking at the bears posting i suspect a few have shorts running or want cheaper entry.. same monotonous drum beating from the same posters over and over on margins..
A few references to keir results, just read them, i noted they have £440 million net debt, GFRD had zero debts... GFRD look in a stronger position. Good cash no debts, lots of contracts. I think low margins is what puts some of buying..
I am a bit worried that positive contract news doesn't make headway so any sense of weakness in the results could push this further down. Hopefully their revenue recognition & profit take rules are prudent enough to not paint too bullish a picture and 6 months since split - with lockdown - doesn't give much comparative or trend data. So again I am worried that the lack of trading data will be exploited even if wrongly so. Am I just being too pessimistic for next week? D
2% margin quoted trends to be the profit element of a contracted fee (o/head & risk being the other two usual elements of "fee"). So if contracted fee remains constant and they have learnt to slash overhead then margin could be higher...and more so if claims/CEs settled in their favour. But again hopefully they are prudent before recognising claim income
Chaiselongue, you keep repeating the same deramping story. It’s getting boring now...
Where does it say there is a report by the company next week. Cant find it anywhere so suspect its bull.
Imo this is a safe looking bet. Cash and cash equivalents at £139mil, no debts no covenants at all. None, nada. Debt free. £3.5mil order book. Lots of contracts being won, they dont seem to rns ones below £25mil.
mcap just £125mil....
The bears dont mention the positives. Even the ones who try and kid you they hold...
Please advise me where it says a report is due anyone. Spoke to other holder and they dont know one is ??
There is a trading update on the 15th however cash alone should cover the current mcap with no debt. No value attached to the business currently and billions in contract value
As a Chartered Accountant of England and Wales with an extensive collection of Box Brownies, I've never been accused of being boring before, but hey! That's an interesting anecdote in itself. Anyway, I was trying to stimulate a debate on the different ways the market may/is valuing this share currently. Net assets don't seem to be the basis, as stated cash, at least January post-deal cash does not seem to be decider. Turnover measured by reported contract wins is seemingly not making an impact. So it may well hinge on margin, which itself could vary depending on the quality of claims and the PTR. I didn't intentionally deramp in the way I am not intentionally interesting. D
The construction industry will lead the economical recovery and we will benefit. The order book is such that it count be attractive to a predator. We have a name and a low mc to a relatively high order book IMO we should have a valuation of at least £200m
“As a chartered accountant of england and wales ive never been accused of being boring ....”
Fell of my chair laughing at that.
Ammu where is the info there is a trading update please?
Cash and cash investments is £139m mcap
Is £125m. No debts .
Business is valued at minus £14mi its silly
https://www.gallifordtry.co.uk/investors/financial-calendar/
I've held this one since the TRY days. That was the original purchase. Before the Vistry split off I was getting an annual dividend equivalent to my original Investment!
Bought some more today as its just so undervalued right now. Have a feeling the coming budget's will have plenty of spend to tap into making this even harder to ignore at this price.
GLA
There is 108p. Seems no bottom at the moment. Just above the year lows now.
More cash in the bank than the Mcap.
Crazy Covid times...
C.
O2B@C
At 31 December 2019 of £225m and anticipated average month end cash over £100m. Trouble is that was march, i wonder how much they have burnt through since then. So i would say they still have less cash than MC.
Still.....I meant they could.
The market suggests that no profit is expected anytime soon and cash will burn .
busy is easy, profit is hard.
31 Dec 2019 £225m net cash.
In 3 months to end of March some are guessing cash is £100m.
That is a burn rate of over £40m per month during parial lockdown with no income/profit received???
If you guess that then check your sums.
(Blackrock must be nearly out by now).
Watch the contract news more to follow.
My charts say get ready for a bounce.
Current Order book £3.2bn and staff on site say they have never been busier.
Tweet, tweet....
C
Indicators for what is in store at GFRD on the next RNS.
Check out the latest Vistry RNS. The old GFRD housebuilding section is doing far better than expected.
Net debt dropped and material prices are low.
There is also a Covid Corporate Financing Facility as a safety net.
Sales are also up.
C.
People are selling at just 104p today.