Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
That's a 'breakout' !!
The buyback RNS presumably having the desired effect. G remains 'cheap' in relation to the current OP and recent performance, so hopefully this will kick-start some more significant long term progress:
https://invst.ly/b3gwn
As discussed with JackS this morning, the six week G 15’ chart https://invst.ly/b39ot
shows Friday’s potential break upwards and today’s ‘kissing the line’ (or backtest as Jack says) before continuing onwards. So far it’s a positive sign and would explain G’s movements in the first half of the day. As I mentioned earlier, the pitchfork pattern in the chart is an indicator rather than a predictor - it provides limit lines for spotting potential breaks etc.
Here’s the 15 minute Brent v Genel since last Friday’s close, with GKP overlaid today for comparison. It may look dramatic but G’s spread is only about 4p:
https://invst.ly/b39pi
This chart should look less dramatic as the week progresses and the scale reduces. All we want to see here is red higher than green by as much as possible. At the end of the session Brent was 1.6% down and G was level with last Friday. The ratio of Gsp (p) to Brent ($) was 2.75 so effectively unchanged.
And G and the others v Brent since October: https://invst.ly/b39ng
It all hangs on OP, of course, so: https://invst.ly/b39nm
Finally, anyone using Invest.Com (and possibly other platforms) may have noticed that their live Brent Futures price was suddenly a full $1 below other sources (like Bloomberg) today. It’s that time of the month again, when they rollover to the next contract - which is why I’ve switched to XBR ‘spot’ (very similar to OANDA) for today’s charts.
An interesting morning. https://invst.ly/b369a
Brent more or less unchanged since the close on Friday but lots of volatility for GKP - execution of orders placed over the weekend maybe? Some ducking and diving to/from G maybe ? Who knows, but GKP ended up down more (surprise!) after a good start. G appeared dismal at first but, frankly, not much different to DNO. RDS always the star of the pack these days. https://invst.ly/b36cd
'AVERAGE' omitted - corrected text:
I also interpret the report as saying that $1 variation in average OP has roughly $6m effect on revenue and receivables (also on page 21) (dyor to verify those figures).
As we approach a new week let’s hope G steps up towards recent levels for $65 Brent. G’s performance previously at this OP is shown here …. https://invst.ly/b2zzy
The green verticals highlight times when Brent touched or crossed this level (green horizontal) in the last ten months and show the value of G (red) at those points - ranging between about 197 and 225, that’s 20p or more above Friday’s disappointing close.
$65 is significant because, in the 2018 Results, it appears to be G’s estimated average OP for 2019 (table at top of page 21), so I assume their guidance is based on this value. I also interpret the report as saying that $1 variation in OP has roughly $6m effect on revenue and receivables (also on page 21) (dyor to verify those figures).
Having had the $50m dividend approved on Friday and announced an intended share buyback of up to $25m, it seems likely that GKP will continue to move ahead of G for the time being. There is no doubt that the simpler business model and more straightforward cash generation from Shaikan is attractive for both income and growth investors and it would not be surprising to find that some are switching.
No analysis or mumbo jumbo about this chart - just a plot of the numbers - 15 minute Brent v Genel since last Friday’s close: https://invst.ly/b2bzb
From this you can see that G and Brent are both about 3.5% up since Friday. However, as G was 2% up against Brent yesterday, this means that G actually lost ground v Brent today and made less progress than might have been expected.
This delay was an unfortunate but fairly predictable consequence of the need to break out from the downtrend mentioned in posts yesterday: https://invst.ly/b2c17
From here G should be free to recover more strongly against Brent - provided, of course, that OP itself continues to be firm.
The others since the OP Peak near $75 of April: https://invst.ly/b2c2y G not dissimilar to DNO performance-wise.
For those who are concerned about why G does not always track OP as they expect it to, this 15 minute per tick trace of Brent (LCO) v G (red) from the previous Friday’s close should give you all you need to help separate and analyse genuine shifts in company value from adjustments due to the price of the underlying commodity:
https://invst.ly/b1yzu
From this you can see that G has improved v Brent by about 2% since Friday also:
1)The ‘out of hours’ OP activity that happens whilst G is not traded (flat line periods for G) but which can influence early trades the following day.
2) Any incremental or step changes that occur independently of underlying OP influences.
3) Gain/Fall of each from previous week’s close as a % from the grey 0% Line.
A steady performance from G today, actually strengthening slightly v Brent throughout the week so far, as this 15 minute trace of G (red) v Brent (LCO ‘front month future’ light green and XBR ‘spot’ dark green) from Friday’s close shows: https://invst.ly/b1nb2
OP ended approx flat over the period
G was approx 2.5% up over the period.
At the end of the session Gsp (p) was approximately = 2.8 x OP $/bbl (weak but improving)
G and others v Brent (since October): https://invst.ly/b1n05 with G still needing to reassert its position back above the green Brent line.
G opened ‘up’ v Brent on Friday’s close https://invst.ly/b17wz and managed to hold onto the lead v OP despite dropping back in the first 15’ of trading and closing level with Friday’s price.
A 15 minute trace of G (red) v Brent (LCO ‘front month future’ light green and XBR ‘spot’ dark green) from 8am Monday to today’s LSE close: https://invst.ly/b1796
G chart with notable trends, 6 months: https://invst.ly/b17-j
Thanks Whitehat, Ocelot -
I'm not totally 'down' on G - far from it - in fact I've recently made comments that attempt to explain that it's holding its own in comparison to Kurdish and other producers. We'll see this more clearly once GKP has gone ex-div, although I do have reservations about making the direct comparison - GKP is, in my view, a different model and offers a different investor prospect. I'm actually not as worried as you are, Whitehat, about the ME situation. There is no doubt that tensions in the area are a permanent feature but I have little doubt that the focus of any Iranian activity will be directed towards US and KSA interests around Hormuz rather than the KRI. It's not hard to see why the US is able to call upon its ME friends to keep OP from rising too much. The remnants of ISIS do pose a threat where certain religious groups are disadvantaged and sidelined but I don't believe that the KRI offers them fertile ground and Iraqi politicians seem to be learning from past mistakes. Let's hope so.
Hi Ammu -
Tonight's post was pure fact. If you don't like it then that's tough (and rather sad). If you saw an error or misleading element then you could have mentioned it - but you didn't, speaks volumes. F words and insults usually betray a lack of cogent argument.
I'm only interested in fundamentals if they can and do deliver market results. So you are correct about one issue - I don't give an f about fundamentals that don't eventually deliver an improvement in sp. As far as being 'sad' - you are right about that too - I'm sad about being a very long term holder of a company that has so far failed to deliver shareholder value for eight years - so don't even attempt the 'need to be patient' argument - which always surfaces around here when G is under performing in the market. Did you hold this at £10?
In my view G is relatively 'OK' but the market is unconvinced.about the long term Whilst it could make reasonable progress, it may not be the quick money spinner that some people think.
Good luck and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0u3NM8rd1U
- no need to reply, you are filtered off my very short list of poor commentators (there's only you actually) on this board.
Unfair comment, Ammu123.
There is no shortage of talk about the fundamentals on this board, but Boyobach is alone in providing the views of a chartist.
A 15 minute trace of G (red) v Brent (LCO ‘front month future’ light green and XBR ‘spot’ dark green) from 8am Monday to today’s LSE close: https://invst.ly/b08au
OP was approx 3% down over the period.
G was approx 4.5% down over the period.
At the end of the session Gsp (p) was approximately = 2.7 x OP $/bbl (very weak).
Long term G & Others v Brent (LCO & XBR) from Peak OP October 2018:
https://invst.ly/b088n
G chart with notable trends, 12 months: https://invst.ly/b088w