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To save watching OP and the sp all the time, and reading guff like this, here’s my entirely amateur suggestion for a quick ‘once a day’ check that should tell you a lot of what you need to know about G’s sp (today’s rounded values inserted):
G’s sp, rounded = 179 = A
Brent, rounded = $59, x3 = 177 = B
A-B = the score = 2
0 to +15 is average,
+15 and over is good,
Below 0 isn’t.
Below -15 seriously isn’t!
If that happens OR if the sp goes below 160 ask yourself why you are still holding G.
If the score consistently hits over +25 or more for a month then increase the multiplier by 0.5 and the +/- indicators by 5 and continue but never drop them back! Should be good for up to x4 - not that I think you'll be needing that anytime soon.
Here is the last five days for G/GKP/DNO v Brent(LCO): https://invst.ly/bzefv
Despite some buyback action last week, G had slipped relative to Brent by Friday and there was a brief correction in price at this morning’s open. However, broader market jitters took it back down along with the other Kurdys. Although there was a mid-day recovery, it remains down relative to Brent and the other two over the five days, with the ratio staying close to 3x. So, if buybacks were happening today (there was little sign of them) then they haven’t matched selling pressure since last Wednesday and we should anticipate a pull back when they cease.
Buybacks presumably continued today with around £3.8m probably still left in the kitty - over 45%. It’s disappointing to note that the second phase of buybacks appears to be having much less effect than the first on the strength of the sp v Brent - the 3x ratio rarely strays above 3.05. I guess the continuing weakness of OP and the market in general is flushing out increasing numbers of sellers who anticipate seasonal downside as oil approaches its supposed annual peak looking decidedly weak. The old line about ‘sell in May etc etc’ would have served Genelians very well this year and, indeed, it looks like some did just that on the 1st of that month. The sp certainly does not appear destined to revisit 230p anytime soon unless something extraordinary happens. It should not have been the case of course: OP certainly peaked prematurely, dropping back just as driving season should have been lifting it up. The KSA either miscalculated when they pumped a record amount last November or, perhaps, intended to squeeze the more exposed shale drillers. But with pipeline capacity increasing and fewer export bottlenecks, the hardier surviving shale producers are finally seeing some genuine free cash flows. Increasing US exports have progressively caused the gap between WTI and Brent to narrow and the short-medium term outlook for OP is increasingly gloomy: https://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-oil-exports-become-victim-of-their-own-success-cm1200533
Here are the last five UK trading days G/GKP/DNO v Brent(LCO): https://invst.ly/by8ui
G v 3xBrent (LCO) since late March: https://invst.ly/by8v5
A lacklustre day as G clings to 3x OP thanks to rounding rather than buybacks, so
a fat chance of seeing 192p at $60/bbl it seems. Meanwhile PMO seems to be defying gravity - rising steadily as all else, including OP, more or less flatlines.
G/GKP/DNO/RDS/PMO since April 2019 Peak Oil: https://invst.ly/by8xi
G/GKP/DNO/RDS/PMO since October 2018 Peak Oil: https://invst.ly/by8yh
Thanks to Withoutt for posting the EIA draw. There was a small reaction in Brent (Currently, OANDA will be about 50 cents higher than LCO shown here) which hit the downward trend, reminding us which direction OP has been going since the end of April: https://invst.ly/bxsmv
Here are the last five UK trading days G/GKP/DNO v Brent(LCO): https://invst.ly/bxsl3
Today’s RNS confirmed some buybacks yesterday - a fairly high daily spend, leaving maybe £4m in the kitty according to my fag-packet notes. Market malaise and weak OP are not helping one jot. There’s simply too much oil in the market.
G v 3xBrent (LCO) since late March: https://invst.ly/bxsnv
This is a key indicator for G in my opinion.Until that orange downward trend, which plots G’s ceiling, gets punched through (assuming it will at some point) there’ll be little to get excited about here.
G/GKP/DNO/RDS/PMO since October 2018 Peak Oil: https://invst.ly/bxsm2
Correction regarding GKP buyback effect, should read:
However, it’s worth noting that GKP’s buyback process has pushed the sp up to an OP ratio of nearly 4.04 - up from around 3.6.
Here are the last five UK trading days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bxbbr
You’ll notice that Brent’s two green lines (light=LCO, dark= XBR (& OANDA) have diverged, as they often do on the last Sunday of the month, as the front month contract rolls over for LCO) It matters little - about 50 cents per bbl., with GNL seeming to track LCO more closely. The G:OP ratio was pretty much the same as at Friday’s close, ie 3.1. GKP dropped more than the other two on Friday and, obviously, DNO was traded yesterday in Oslo whilst the UK stocks were not. However, it’s worth noting that GKP’s buyback process has pushed the sp up to an OP ratio of nearly 4.85 - up from around 4.44
It’s worth comparing G to GKP over the entire period since G’s buybacks started:
https://invst.ly/bxbhg where you’ll see G and GKP about neck and neck over the period although OP has fallen by about 8%.
G v 3xBrent (LCO): https://invst.ly/bxbcv
So it later transpired that buybacks had indeed restarted today as Bacchus astutely suspected. Interesting as prices of 174 and lower were available but overlooked for 'value acretive' acquisition late last week. It's apparently better to buy at around 10p more. OK - I think we can dispense with any notion that the buybacks are a particularly 'smart' or 'strategic' process. However, there is no doubt in my mind that, even as a blunt instrument, it should remove the low hanging fruit: ie many shares that would likely be traded at relatively low prices and consequently hold the price back. I reckon there's still £4.5m to spend - but don't rely on that number, it could be miles out, do your own sums. Ultimately let's hope the G:OP ratio gets improved over the next three or four weeks even if the sp itself remains flat due to a weaker OP.
ask IR
I’m intrigued why canaccord are not doing buybacks. It seems a little strange that over a week has passed without any purchases.
Anyone any ideas why that could be...especially when earlier in the week the price was much lower.
Yes, Ocelot, a quite remarkable turn of events this afternoon with G:OP ratio up to 3.14x - best it's been in quite a while. I wonder if buybacks have restarted as Bacchus observed. Exceptionally good sign if not.
I agree Comeonvog, it was a potential sell point and it's never wrong to take a profit. I have higher targets in mind for my trading tranches however, so not tempted myself - happy to wait although, as I've said in previous post, OP is not looking clever.
I didnt like the drop in poo so sold again near the bell. good luck guys hope it continues moving up for you all, good bunch on this board.
Closed at the day's high - 187.00p.
Just to cheer everyone up - G having a good day today but, the wider picture is less rosy. Brent has been in a downtrend for nearly four months now and , following this afternoon's downturn at a potential break point, there's no sign of it coming to a close: https://invst.ly/burnw . What Brent does then G usually follows, with the wedge (orange top, red base) in this next chart ever tightening https://invst.ly/burrm . Will G break up or down when it reaches the decision point?
Lunchtime scores today as, again, no evening roundup from me.
Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/buokm
We can see that Brent has eased gradually upward over the five days, carrying the Kurdy oil companies with it, G appearing to do marginally better than the others and a bit less volatile. The magic ‘G:OP’ ratio is up to 3.07x as I write - that’s up from 3.0x on Monday morning
Immediate Targets:
With over half of the $10m buyback budget presumably still available and three weeks to run after the Bank Holiday let’s hope for some price action next week if the buyback chap returns after a two week break. Today’s ‘Benchmark Chart’ shows a close-up view of G v 3xBrent with target lines for 3.2x $60 and $61Brent, ie 192p and 195p which should be achievable at current OP levels if buybacks resume and have the same relative impact as they did in early July: https://invst.ly/buola
A lunchtime view, with $61 OP as there’ll be no further comment from me today. Here’s the ‘benchmark chart’, where green ‘Brent’ marks my view of G’s average performance v OP. You’ll notice I’ve added a line showing the ‘anticipated best sp for this OP’ :
https://invst.ly/bu69p
The ‘best sp’ is estimated using the highest G:OP ratio achieved this year, which is 3.5x - ie about 213p at $61 Brent. It’s consequently a highly optimistic target at the moment in my view.
The current 185p is just above G’s average ratio of 3.0xOP.
Here’s the last five days up to 12.30 today - good to see DNO firming up. Not sure why GKP is dropping back - buybacks paused or stopped maybe?. G seems to be naturally increasing in step with OP: https://invst.ly/bu6g5 . No obvious sign of bbs so far today.
Any buy-back of the Shares pursuant to the Programme will be effected in
accordance with Chapter 12 of the UKLA Listing Rules, the EU Market Abuse
Regulation 596/2014 and the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/1052
(and within the meaning of this Regulation the purpose of the Programme is
to reduce the capital of the Company). The market will be notified in
accordance with those rules if and when purchases are made.
Do they definitely have to issue daily RNS's for share purchases. Could they be purchasing anyway and do one final notification after 17th?
Another day and no buy backs. Really don’t understand this. I understand the purpose is not to get the SP higher but on the other side it surely isn’t to wait until the SP drops before seeing value or the reason for the the buy back ( current SP undervalues the company) would be meaningless. Or am I being stupid!!
I wouldn't stress too much about watching OP every day - within a couple of $ of $60 is neither here nor there: it's not going to change G's long term position or sp by more than about 6p whilst $5 would start to be of interest.
About GKP being ahead - I would just say that since Friday G and DNO have actually played catch-up after dropping back on Friday, despite no buybacks at G.
https://invst.ly/btuyp
However, I wouldn't read too much into that - it's just swings and roundabouts on different days.
For now at least, G seems to be pretty much settled in the range of about 180p -220p for oil between $60 and $70, nominally £2 at $65, give or take a few p. The second set of buybacks have so far, rather disappointingly, only restored G to where it was in relation to OP when the first phase completed. However. there's still some powder left - over half the original budget I reckon - which hopefully might yet add 10p to those numbers. But I'm not counting on anything special until there's some news on Bina or the Chevron fields.
A totally average day as far as I can see, hopefully no buybacks given the lack of any gain. GKP's buybacks may also have paused.
Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bttsf
G:OP at close = 3.05x
….and all the runners since buybacks started: https://invst.ly/bttty
Runners and Riders since October 2018 Peak Oil: https://invst.ly/bttus
Are they still not buying back shares? They really are useless at everything they do. Gkp seem to just be buying one chunk a day at moment. Today it was a load at 253p and that was it rather than small buys on different exchanges etc. Might explain why gkp is rising more quickly
Agreed - 17th it is - apols
Up to 17th inclusive, bunks, not the 13th.
They're supposed to be boosting share holder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation as opposed to increasing the actual share price granted - but 'Pull back from the market from time to time' You must be ''pull' ing my leg ocelot - Look, they committed to this buy back, they've recently reinstated it and defined the 13th as the end date, they should get those shares out of circulation in a controlled manner, this is not control, its non existent
They're not trying to raise the share price, but to pick up stock as inexpensively as possible, so it makes sense for them to pull back from the market from time to time, to see if the share price won't come back a bit (the reverse happened yesterday!).
Having said that, if they are aware of pending positive news, then the maintenance of a fair market would require them to cease buying until the market had been informed.
Does anyone know if they are prevented from buying back stock when there is a share price moving event pending (Bina possibly?). I ask this question more in hope than expectation of something significant to move the SP higher. On the other hand what other reason can there be for np BB action.