Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
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I've exceeded my Friday club prediction already this week which is nice but why aren't they buying back shares?
They have until cop 13th September on the current mandate and based on previous availability of stock they will miss the window (again) - maybe they think its going lower short term? Confused mayor...
We only opened 2.1% down,,,, result - this must be the lightest BBack in history
Consider yourself slapped
woah still no buy back and we finish at 5% up. somebody slap me.
wait we might finish 10perc t
down tmrw
Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bt513
With OP staggering along below $60 for about a fortnight now and no real sign of it moving back up to the $65 level, G is not generating much interest and is unlikely to see much above 183p unless the bb programme removes all the sellers at this level. It was hard to tell if bbs resumed today as G was similarly up with DNO (some relief there) but it has steadily improved in strength v OP during the day, so perhaps bbs did restart, although no RNS as yet.
New ‘Benchmark Chart’
Over the weekend I posted a chart that rebased G against OP prior to the first Taq Taq write-down back in late February 2016. I suggested that this might tell us all we need to know about G’s performance v OP: if the sp is above Brent’s green line then it will give a proportionately positive indication etc etc. Importantly, the green Brent lines LCO (light) and NY Crude (dark) accurately represent G’s ‘3x‘ relationship with OP and consequently provide a very precise good/bad reference marker. Here’s the same chart ‘zoomed-in’ to the last 10 months, clearly identifying the good and poor periods of performance irrespective of the prevailing sp and OP: https://invst.ly/bt4mm
And a closer view for the last few days: the green end candle standing above Brent indicating a better day than some of late: https://invst.ly/bt5lj As a guide, G would need to be back up to 192 at $60 Brent in order for performance to match the end of the last phase of buybacks - so some way to go..
It'll be very interesting to see if Buy Backs have recommenced, or whether this move is based on pure market forces.
We'll see shortly....
Jack
Machine broken?
The end of an unimpressive week with G ultimately 3% down since last Friday. As bunks pointed out last night, and the absence of an RNS seems to confirm, there were apparently no buybacks yesterday and there was little evidence of any today. Ordinarily that shouldn’t matter, however the sp failed to respond to a firmer OP this morning and was down 4% at one point compared to Brent, even though oil was set to end the week level over the five days. GKP is meanwhile marching ahead briskly. Note also DNO’s increasingly steep decline.
Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/brwpz
Given Brent’s fairly steady week, G’s Thursday drop to $172 and overall fall of 4% appears to have been market driven rather than reactive to Brent; it’s particularly disappointing in light of the anticipated effect of bbs that seem to have paused. The G:OP ratio has consequently dropped back a little to just under 3x
DNO’s performance is increasingly of concern given the geographic and operational relationships between the two companies. This week it fell below G in the ‘OctoberPeakOP’ Comparison chart https://invst.ly/brwr4 for the first time and is now over 40% down on its April peak. It lost 10% over the last week alone, whilst OP was effectively flat, which poses the question of whether there is a common issue, other than OP, that is also weighing upon G. See separate threads: Whitehat, Jood etc comments worth reading. GKP now leads the runners in that particular race.
In a different comparison, here are all the runners since G commenced bbs:
By this measure G is doing ok given, I believe, a smaller bb pot and a less defined schedule than GKP: https://invst.ly/brwqj
They seem to be benefiting GKP short term Bunks. Nothing benefits Genel
Well I'm learning alot about share buybacks and how little short term share price benefit they offer - not challenging the longer term benefit btw
Maybe not bunks - we can't know for sure till the RNS, which sometimes follows in the morning.
Until then I'm guessing - like everyone else - on the way the sp moves, which is why I said 'seem to' because there were some definite and low lows followed by bounce up.
Re-basing the chart on the day, looks like you could be right - DNO and G were very similar, which suggests there may have been no bbs. That would be good as far as I'm concerned - a fair performance with no bb support or cash spent.
https://invst.ly/brkij
"Today’s bbs seemed to kick-in when the G:OP ratio dropped to around 2.91x and to ease off when the ratio approached 3.00"
Did they buy any back today? I didn't think so.
If you were employed to acquire G shares at the lowest possible prices whilst the market is generally being hammered and falling, wouldn’t you be inclined to let it fall as far as possible before buying? Today’s bbs seemed to kick-in when the G:OP ratio dropped to around 2.91x and to ease off when the ratio approached 3.00. Fair enough, I would say. I’m also glad that I’m not holding DNO, which is 26% down since G started their first phase of bbs, with half the fall in the last fortnight, making G’s loss of 2% over the entire period look positively healthy.
Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/brhiw
….and all the runners since buybacks started - quite a novelty to see RDS lower than PMO…..: https://invst.ly/brhh0
Ha! and down again! If I didn't know better, I'd think they start buying at 3x and stop as it rises above...
Come on boyo, keep up - 174.4p now - that's a bit more like what I'd expect considering the carnage out there today - mid ish now
No - it's not Bunks, quire right Sunk to 172 when I wasn't looking!
They should have sufficient ammo to steady the ship..... Looks like they've chosen not to just yet.
I think G did rather well yesterday considering the low quantity of bbs. So a drop today was on the cards unless they stepped in. It makes sense as a strategy to tease out sellers who are inclined to sell at low prices by letting dips in OP test them. At the moment they certainly seem to stop buying when the magic G:OP ratio goes near 3.1 x . It pushes my recent forecast of up to 3.4 x into the realms of fantasy. However, I think they do still have up to £5m left to spend, so I'm not entirely giving up hope of a significant improvement from here. GLA
172 isn't the mid 170s in my book
Whilst G wallows around in the mid 170's I thought I'd look closer at the chart of runners and riders since Peak OP last October, which I find always gives a realistic appraisal of how the respective members are really doing. And a dismal story it is: https://invst.ly/brcez
Having performed as badly as PMO during October and November, GKP is now challenging RDS as leader of the pack, largely due to its bb scheme and a very disappointing Q2 knocking the major off pole position. Shell, it should be noted, is also buying back shares at the moment.
To put it in context, G would need to be around 205 to be matching GKP in this comparison.
DNO has not maintained the enthusiasm it generated in the first five months of the year and is now back where it was in late December. PMO is pretty much a carbon copy of DNO but offset negatively by the massive hit it took during the autumn, from which it has yet to recover.
In fact, rebasing the chart to November 23rd when OP was similar to today, at about $59, shows the entire field, apart from GKP, to be virtually back where they were on that date. Hardly inspiring:
https://invst.ly/brchg
que the "it don't work like that" brigade
Bizzare!
Can't understand this drop at all.....
They should have sufficient ammo to steady the ship, overlay yesterdays modest BBack volume and you'd think they'd be fine today - que the "it don't work like that brigade"
Gone the opposite way to the oil price this morning, which is up on about $58.70 at 4.30pm-ish yesterday.
Strange. Was almost as if the market expected some news today at Genel- foolishly as this is Genel afterall. Gkp still doing ok so I remain a holder. Even though I don’t know why it’s holding up and should not be doing any better than Genel really
The last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/br5mf
Interesting to note that buybacks were not in progress on the first of those days but G was already moving positively
I agree with Bunks about the price holding up well today, although It appears from the RNS that only 36,435 shares were bought back which, unless I’m mistaken, could be the lowest number for any active bb day so far. Yet, surprisingly given that factor, G’s sp seems to have increased in strength v OP and the magic ratio moved up to just below 3.1 x (181/58.7), with around £5m possibly left in the budget by my estimate.
Here’s G’s recent relationship with Brent, the chart is ‘in sync’ with GvBrent at Peak OP on 3rd October - so if G is above the green Brent trace then G has improved in strength since that date: https://invst.ly/br5qk