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Give me the job hasiba id turn this pile of misery around and give people on here returns. Literally doing anything at all would provide a higher share price than this
Leem1 Analytica is back....
Another reason to be cheerful today!
Where is the fu*king bottle!
From the Times this morning:
" ... Russia indicated that it could be willing to return to the negotiating table with OPEC ...
Alexander Novak, the Russian energy minister, said that 'Russia may reach new agreements if needed', while there were reports that the ministry would meet oil companies today to discuss possible future co-operation with Opec.
However, Saudi Arabia appeared to reject the olive branch ..."
An article reporting French Connection's figures includes this:
"The company sourced about half of its products from China, a spokesman said, adding that all the factories affected by an extended quarantine period had been reopened".
400m cash and a bod that you lot defend when they do nothing. This is the result
G not very perky eh
OPEC/Russia/USA issue is worse, Hawkey.
Loose cannons. Very unpredictable and with swift consequences just by dint of a statement (which may turn out to be misleading)
Covid19 will eventually spread more widely but in an increasingly identifiable pattern and hopefully with fewer health consequences for the population as time goes by. It can't be contained indefinitely - life has to go on for the vast majority who survive it and develop immunity. As those numbers increase then it will have more difficulty finding a host and ultimately fade away.
We need op $40 + shortly to be sure of dividends and sp might pick up well..
There seems to be a website problem - here's an alternative link for the daily chart showing the trends I mentioned:
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_9ff0da4a184be56c99ae01879594f680.png
I'll post the 5minute chart later if necessary.
Not sure which is worse......
Opec/Russia/Usa
or
Corona Virus.....
I think there is much more of this blooming virus to come, 1000s less flights, cruises etc....
I don't expect much good news until late summer but at some stage Corona virus will be controlled and the oil market will rebalance higher.......
Its very unseals to say this for Genel but...You need a lorra lorry patience......
Hawkey
(continued)...I think G might perk up a bit (although the chart tonight wasn't encouraging) so decided to wait and see tomorrow.
No Bunks - I would not necessarily jump straight out of one stock into another.
Sometimes it goes like this: sell some G if it looks to be at a high but don't move directly into RDS if you think it'll fall.
Cash then becomes an intermediate stage to lower risk/improve chances if possible. Also, because the market is down, I'll be looking to add using spare cash. However - it's really volatile and the market could move either way having potentially overshot, so I'm talking about tranches (in my case up to £5k max) not the whole shebang. The KSA/Russia spat has made this very complicated - if it had just been Covid-19 then it would have been straightforward.
I think G might perk up a bit
sorry - had another read Boyo- I suspect it's the part cash bit that is making you hold fire
interesting Boyo - but if indeed the bottom hasn't been hit you think G will deal with a further fallback in o.p better than a major?
Here's a '5minute' chart showing the last five days since G was 151. I'm paying close attention to the majors, personally and would have transferred a percentage of my G into RDS plus some cash except for one thing - I'm not sure that the bottom has been hit yet. But perhaps I'm just being played by the KSA (and possibly their pals in Russia): there's been a lot of words but not one extra tanker at sea yet. It's all posturing so far, although KSA have a large quantity of oil distributed at major hubs that it can throw at the market any time it wants to.
https://invst.ly/q2n0f
The two lowest blue trend lines here, https://invst.ly/q2mg8 , are parallels to G's long term and familiar lines but were something of a guess as they go back to lows of 2016. The lowest is surprisingly accurate and will be tweaked to align with today's closing price. The next one down is currently at around 92p, which may be worth remembering because the long tail on today's candlestick indicates that the sp tested higher but, so far, doesn't want to head that way. Undoubtedly the KSA Aramco 'drama queen' announcement today put a stop to the upward trajectory. Above that there's a 10p gap up to about 138p - if G survives long enough )of course it will!) then that should get filled eventually. Show me any oil co without a gap on that day!
It’s obviously worth considering how OP might realistically move over the next three months. My thoughts are these:
Whilst the market has reacted instantly, the physical commodity position has not yet changed. The effect on US Shale production might be the first supply change, and it is generally reported that Shale’s break-even point is in the region of $40. This is also supposed to be around the level that Russia needs - although reports suggest that they will stomach lower prices for a while in order to squeeze Shale production. KSA are effectively threatening to join this game of ‘chicken’ - however none of these players wants or can afford for OP to remain below $40, although it was naturally heading there without any need for production increases because of Covid 19. So they do not need to increase production to play this game.
Given the demand position, logic points to a possible 2020 average of $40 Brent, bearing in mind that we have had 3 months already at an average around $60. However, it is equally likely that demand will rise sharply when production kicks back in and as long-haul transportation levels resume. We may yet see G fall to below 100p, of course - that’s the bottom blue trend here: https://invst.ly/q22g4 which points to about 93p, with 106p on the penultimate line. Those levels are consistent with OP as low as $30. Don’t forget that the divi should be based on last year’s results and that $54m of revenue postponed from 2019 should be boosting this year’s numbers. Ha! I’ll believe that when it happens.
The dilemma, for those who are looking to take advantage of the market, is where to put cash when they perceive that the low has been reached (or, as Hasiba rightly says, as they top up prudently on the dips). What could derail G’s recovery? Well we all know the answer to that - I’ll just say KRG malarky. Which may be another reason why shifting cash to an alternative oil-based stock with similar recovery prospects could be considered.
In looking at G’s performance relative to other oil co’s during the current economic glitch, this comparison chart goes back to last Thursday’s close because various ‘shocks’ (OPEC+ failure, Italian virus escalation, loo-roll crisis etc.) had not occured at that point. Chevron hasn’t moved yet, of course, as NY is still closed.
https://invst.ly/q21mi
One factor worth bearing in mind when considering whether to sell G - and I’m not necessarily advocating doing so - is whether any similarly battered stocks have a better chance of recovery or a smaller chance of declining further. That is definitely a dyor area!
As far as I can see, G is currently performing as well as can be expected given OP - and the ratio has actually increased to 3.2x.
As the market continues to fall, it’s time to take a longer and harder look at G:
https://invst.ly/q1ltf
Historic trends and support levels start to become more relevant as they map out the most likely levels that would apply in the event that G continues to fall. No commentary seems necessary as the picture spells it out.
This should not be read or interpreted as gloomy deramping. Whilst the covid-19 issue should not be dismissed or trivialised it should equally be viewed proportionately. The economic and commercial impact has so far been far more severe than the rate of infection and mortality would seem to justify. Record levels of production in the US should not be a surprise either, a drowning man will struggle ever harder until he finally sinks.
Brent v G and the others since Feb 1st, pre the impact of COVID-19 .
https://invst.ly/q0m5x
We can see that G and GKP were tracking the major RDS pretty well until yesterday but looks like they started to lose contact even before the EIA report today.
Here’s the last five days:
https://invst.ly/q08z0
Those of you who stress about G minute by minute may benefit from comparing this to last night’s post:
https://invst.ly/p-tqx
The various sp’s simply weave around each other UNLESS and UNTIL something fundamental changes for one of them. By fundamental I mean a market re-evaluation - which hasn’t happened for G in over 18 months: https://invst.ly/q0932
So, unless you are trading G on a daily basis I’d suggest you stop watching the price in isolation but pay attention to longer term trends and resistance/support lines (effectively the price channel it moves in).
i make that a 6.5% drop from around 10:00am, alongside a 0.89% drop in the ftse and a 2.4% drop in o.p. The others had a bit of a buffer by the time o.p dropped but not us eh... thought we were on to something yesterday ... nah
carp 148.4p UT
almost 5% drip during the day feels excessive considering the landscape today
A disappointing drop-back after a promising start. Things have certainly changed: Back on the 10th Feb, G was around 182 at $53 OP (marked here):
https://invst.ly/q03yl (chart from Feb1)
DNO may be lifting faster today but look at the catching-up it needs to do.
US market not long opened so we may see Chevron react a bit more (flat line when market closed obviously)
I bet on Bina,gas but no bids on my radar..
Some thing very positive is brewing at G imo..
Holding strong here too.