Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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oh well, the 10%+ consequence of this daily misery mystery tour is at least worth less with each day trip , crazy, lets hope the Chancellor has something decent to share this evening - why am I not hopeful?
bunks, hydrogen: I think 54.50 was the lowest, as marked here:
https://invst.ly/q5a-6
Hence my lowest support line at $55. In theory, $55 should mark the bottom of this misery/mystery trip! It would typically support an OP as low as $22. But G's loss today has pushed it down off the scale: even in gloomy circumstances, G (p) should be 2.5x ($) 30, ie 75p so this is a good 16% down on where it should be. RDSb, for example, has edged up today whilst this has seen a significant drop. I'm uneasy about it although I agree that G should bounce back up. My issue will be the speed of that relative to other recoveries and whether G is the best vehicle to be riding. Is the market just driving G to the absolute bottom as quickly as possible now? Last five days here:
https://invst.ly/q5b79
isn't this the lowest we've been ever? 2017 was 65p .... a historic day maybe, in a bad way
A seriously disproportionate drop for G and GKP today:
https://invst.ly/q56-h
When I mentioned potential support at $67 last week I did think it would require OP to drop to the low $20s to get that low. So today’s visit seems a bit premature to me. I’ll take the fact that G bounced back up to nearly 72 from the day’s low as a good sign::
https://invst.ly/q4vmg
Dare we suppose that the market has priced in Saudi over-production?
I’m not so sure myself.
The key thing regarding G - and any other investments - right now, is resilience and spotting those with the best prospects of rapid recovery. Here are the usual suspects on an hourly Brent based chart since Jan1:
https://invst.ly/q4vv5
G only lost out to RDS just over a week ago - on the 8th. Other than that it led the field for most of the time.
Brent heading south again, it seems. Jan 2016 established the most recent bottom for Brent at $27. Below that is literally uncharted territory as far as the last fifteen years is concerned. Before that, OP was generally below $30 and so offers little help in today’s context. Here’s long term Brent:
https://invst.ly/q4m-u
Even at an OP of $27, G should be at 80p. However, during the last three trading days, G weakened against OP from 3x down to a recent-times worst of 2.5x. This would potentially place G at 67p if OP did fall to $27. Here’s G v 3xBrent: https://invst.ly/q4n3l
Bunks was perfectly correct about GKP on Friday morning but the afternoon saw GKP knocked back again. The last five days do show the KRI co's not doing as well as the majors https://invst.ly/q47ri
although, tbf, they are doing way better than PMO over the same period (added here: https://invst.ly/q47t0 ) Maybe I'm being too gloomy over the payments issue but I do feel that it's a drag on the KRI co's.
Interesting to see Chevron rising sharply towards the end of the US market - that bump up might put G back at 98p, which would replicate their relationship as it was on Wedneday.
the payment issue isn't holding GKP back today though is it - they're in exactly the same boat as per by post earlier in the week with the data from their website.
If it wasn't for the payments issue I wouldn't see any problem getting to 105-110, frankly.
I can see the giant is waking up after all the noises we made!
Keep up G....join the herds
could 84p be the problem? we've been knocked back a few times already, like now, as high as 84.2 earlier
I agree bunks - my re-buy was undoubtedly a risk. But I'm more relaxed about it because it's more under control as I've spread the risks elsewhere - with RDS as far as oil co's are concerned. I will potentially use 'stops' for a while as I can't watch a screen all day, which has cost me dear this last week.
i'm not so sure, if we continue to hang around here even a sniff of a pullback will see us dragged straight through 82 imo, she needs to get her skates on because I for one am getting increasingly concerned with the lack of reaction to a fairly substantial market rebound today
Looks like the 82p support may hold - subject to OP.
RDS on the way up today and I'm hoping G takes the cue eventually.
https://invst.ly/q3wwu
I decided to restore much of my G holding and now back to 80% of what I held a week ago.
The 20% reduction will probably remain permanent - as part of a general re-balancing, at no net cash cost so far, and my net cost per G share has actually reduced slightly. I 'm hanging on to 'new' cash in case of further market falls.
Here's the last six days comparisons (5 minute ticks showing OP out of hours) - no points for spotting when the US market opened today (Chevron drop)
https://invst.ly/q3k2-
how rigged is that then ---- balanced precariously on the support line .... ffs
Who's idea was all this?
well better than 67 or lower!!
How am I thinking 82p will be a result ....crazy
There's a bit of latitude as these supports and trends are rarely penny perfect - within a couple of p either way.
close above 82p? Nah - LP81.6 someone is loving this
Note that G is now dropping at twice the rate of OP.
Even RDS is falling faster than the underlying commodity (they are also a gas company, of course)
For those that can bear to watch, here's G (5 min ticks) v Brent and RDS (usual colours) showing the behaviour near the 90 and 82p support lines I've mentioned previously:
https://invst.ly/q3jo4
Let's hope 82 holds....
and we're off again...
£220m cap, 400m cash. Bravo Genel and team cracking share price defence and strategy
DOW suspended by the looks of it