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Will probably grab some at 180 to dump again at 220 a few months later. Complete mugs game
Gkp has just fallen to match Genels price. Kinda weird. I’m still stuck in the dog tullow at moment
'Will probably grab some at 180 to dump again at 220 a few months later. Complete mugs game......'
'dump' shares for over 20% gain a mugs game ?..... You are no mug, Leem, but it is a game isn't it?
Since last Friday's close Brent is now back around $63 but, as mentioned in the other thread, oil co's do not seem to be generally responding yet. G should really be about 195 if it were purely tracking Brent, so there are other market forces at play: https://invst.ly/oxaww
Just a reminder that OP rose by 6% last week, the £ was 2% up against the $ whilst G and DNO finished the week level, GKP and RDSb down around 1%
https://invst.ly/ozwa1
G is now below 3xBrent again: https://invst.ly/ozwbn so pretty much back to average performance for the year
and firmly below the blue dash trend line and resistance. It has been known to recover from this kind of level to the upper dashed blue line on 2 out of five occasions as circled here https://invst.ly/ozwed .
If OP holds then who knows? I'm not expecting anything spectacular this side of the NY and possibly not until well into Q1.
Surely the SP owes us 5% based on last weeks oil rise.
Always fun with us. You just never never know where we are heading.
Heres to you all being safe in these gales and a good week.
Hawkey
Yes Hawkey - well 4% anyway - should be 199+ on that basis, which would put it back to 3.1x OP.
So with G just 180 at the open, today’s candle bearing an upward wick despite the intraday rise, the next trend line (blue) below at 175 and ex div on Thursday; it isn’t rocket science to work out the likely direction from here in the absence of some unforeseen and uplifting factor. Trend lines are just that, of course - they are simply a line that the price historically gravitates towards before either reversing direction or punching through. Hence the reason they appear to exert a certain gravitational pull.
https://invst.ly/o-u5b
With that in mind, and seeking some solace, it’s worth remembering that significant low points for Bent often occur in December/January as marked here: https://invst.ly/o-mj7 . However, despite the continuing growth in US shale production, the underlying trend in OP since Jan 2016 remains upward - the lowest lows being progressively higher by about $3 per year. As US shale growth slows and global demand continues to increase, there is every reason to suppose that this trend will either continue or improve. Q1 historically sees an uplift in G’s performance, especially if there’s a positive Trading and Ops Update ( The next is on 16th January).
Well Boyo you have a 50 50 chance of being right.
As you say company wise we are probably in the position but the dial just won't move.
Patience Patience Patience....
we will get there....
Hawkey
one day this will rise, probably not today and definitely not tomorrow... No chrimbo party again this year klassic, maybe next year.
Well Bunks no Chrimbo Party? Now I'm seriously depressed! And Hawkey thinks I've only got a 50:50 chance of being right about the direction of this submarine we are currently aboard....
OP down, crude build according to the EIA, ex-d discount, c'mon H - being cheerful is one thing but dealing with reality in a measured way is what actually keeps us going. The last five days have not been brilliant:
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_0fd313f951c17bfd4f93d4d9e8381ea2.png
And the last two months looks flattering to G relative to the others at first - until you notice how OP has risen:
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_89bf7740e517c1afeb344cfa0857c6a4.png
My approach: Take the divi earned today and look for a possible bargain tomorrow....
Bunks
Next year? Hopefully but I think it will take longer. Political stability is still far off and continues to deter the smart investors. Tank Tank has slumped again this year though now apparently stable again at 10k bopd (not lol). BB, Santa, Queer Drag all promise great additional income. More Rocko—no oil so far and Smileyland apparently has oil bubbling out of the dirt but nobody’s quite sure of the conclusions.
We’ll get there eventually when the assets fulfill promise and the cash balance brings a fish with big teeth.
Seasons best to you, Hawkey, JL, Boyo, Hydro, Ocelot, Whitehat et al
With ex-div out of the way, G needs to start chasing Brent's green line again, which marks 3x OP and G's 'average' level. We are about 10p down currently. Progress can only start to be measured once G is above that line.
https://invst.ly/p2udg
Although it is tempting to blame G's collapse since the 10th Nov on leaks concerning the KRG payment issue, it is quite difficult to spot a possible and plausible connection until this month. G was destined to pause/pull back to some extent after the spike to 225 and we know that oil co's have generally been in retreat during the period - I've added RDS to this G v 3x Brent chart to illustrate https://invst.ly/p59y4 . The most obvious divergence doesn't really occur until the 9th December - just a couple of days before the RNS.
G is surprisingly showing some welcome spark today https://invst.ly/p5bd3
In the last five days, OP has steadily increased whilst G & GKP have mostly remained flat. However, GKP and DNO have re-introduced share buybacks which presumably explains DNO’s advance despite the payments issue. G’s performance has therefore remained comparatively good, given the others are buying back.
Since OP crashed in 2014 from $100+ , it has peaked just once at $86 in the first boom era of US tight-oil production. G’s sp at that point was 248p, a ratio of 2.88x - better than today but far from stunning and lower than this year’s average 3.05x. Fast forward to today and G has performed slightly better than the other KRI companies and PMO in this chart but rather worse than the majors. All the KRI companies have slipped v OP itself. https://invst.ly/p5bk8 . If the payments issue gets resolved on schedule and OP steadies in the $65 region then G could be expected to get back on track for 210+ or better
It's the time of year when stock selections for the coming year are published.
Could Genel feature amongst the oil stocks selected?
2020 does promise to be a pretty full year for the company's operations and its balance sheet is very solid.
On the payments issue was there any indication that this was a one-off or will there be a concertina effect whereby they have now increased their credit terms..?
That should have read OR have they increased their
credit terms
Hi Dodge,
I have spoken to several people and they are all very very confident this is a one off.
It was liken to me from going to weekly pay to monthly pay....
Cheers
Hawkey
G’s unexpectedly good day continued through the afternoon. I doubt that even Leem could find fault with G’s progress today - the last of the five days shown here:
https://invst.ly/p5f69
And. in context. since G started to gain traction in October: https://invst.ly/p5f81
Finally, versus 3x Brent and RDS recently: https://invst.ly/p5f8d
Not back to 3x Brent, much less 3.5x, but a welcome recovery since last week’s nadir.
'It was liken to me from going to weekly pay to monthly pay....'
Well the KRG haven't started selling via SOMO, which may have prompted a discontinuity. But they'd presumably need to make an adjustment at some point because of the timing of budget payments - IF (big IF) that comes about. Meanwhile they are still selling the stuff:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-18/china-buying-kurdish-oil-as-weak-margins-spur-cheap-crude-hunt
'' Tankers Atlantic Explorer, Minerva Vera and Guanabara loaded a combined 2.3 million barrels of Kurdish crude last month, according to ship-tracking data. The first vessel has already offloaded its cargo in China and the other two are set to later this month. Poliegos and Ottoman Nobility loaded shipments of Kurdish oil in December and are currently on their way to Asia.
The Kurdish oil headed to China was priced at $2 to $3 a barrel above global benchmark Brent, the traders said. That compares with similar-quality Oman crude that was priced at $2 a barrel or more than the grade from Kurdistan. "
Brent has been trundling gently upwards for a couple of months now. The usual form is for a pop upwards at some point - maybe $69? - before dropping back....
https://invst.ly/p5r3-
DNO buybacks continuing at a pace, it seems :
https://invst.ly/p5rk0
but, tbf, there's more of a hill to climb:
https://invst.ly/p5rle
All of them except G lagging behind Brent since mid October - with G only falling behind Brent from early December.
I have stayed invested here due to the positive cashflow form current operations. Assuming the payments suspension is a glitch and normal service resumes to the timescale, I would like to see a sustained buyback programme here - If GENL cannot get Bina off the ground it can return cash to us shareholders via buyback. Hopefully this could also underpin a steady rise in share price.
Thanks Hawkeye, that's good to hear.
I was also wondering if this was the way they started the
last bout of late payments, first one delay and then stopped
altogether....
It worked for them then, so you suspect the worse when your
cash is down...