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Respect to all other views and I share with you the problems of where we are and whom we are dealing with but I understand it is the more complicated dynamics and mistrust between the central gov and krg which hinders many things including the turmoils in Iraq excluding Kurdistan...and as I worked in middle-east for over 20 years and the culture of inshalah tomorrow!! But they will pay ultimately and that I was accustomed to when I was there. This is highly likely our ceo and bod getting used to but not the shareholders outside the region...
Yes uncertainities and suspicious ways of the krg delaying /interrupting the payment is not serving us or the sp well..but obviously the krg are not bothered or stupid and corrupt in addition to above dynamics.
I took advantages of all above and added at low with the current turmoils ...I hope I got it right or ?
Believing krg will pay but as I mentioned G and GKP as I hold shares there too who are facing the same issue needs to have another arrangement to get paid regularly and on time..
GLA and really best blogs here by investors....
Hope time proves you correct and me as being overly pessimistic.
But as per Boyo's post - for non Genel holding investors looking to capitalise on the suppressed oil price, a choice between companies getting paid for their output and companies with a questionable / opaque payment schedule seems a fairly easy choice.
Top up Genel or top up RDS?????
Good luck to all and stay healthy.
I have to declare that I'm currently minded to take a further gamble on G when the time is right - which could be tomorrow or maybe next month. But I recognise that it is a gamble: neither OPEC nor the KRG are reliable in my view and the course of COVID-19 is not near a conclusion. However, I think both KRG and OPEC must and will ultimately act pragmatically in terms of business, trade and their own self-interests. COVID-19, of course, will last as long as it can.
During the price drop I rotated investments - ie sold shares in G and PFC and bought in RDS and others , which I will retain. I am now at the point of potentially introducing 'new' cash and today's statement has caused me to favour placing this with G, having re-balanced over the last couple of weeks. I am basing this on a modest OP improvement to $40 - $45 and a G sp of 120p +. A return to 200p and beyond would be desirable but 120p is my first target. For me, the payment issue is an enormous disincentive - I would have bought without hesitation on today's low otherwise.
Hasiba - lovely timing, looks like your decision making process has been vindicated - Congratulations. Stop loss set or holding out for dividend?
Hi Jim
Thank you and hope for all holders here that we continue to see much more upside ..I am holding lth and debating to sell enq and add more G ...perhaps if I am lucky to get in at low of the day...
I think Dodger..still blaming the management on the rise today...) lol...
Atb
Totally, the management once again shows their ineptitude by allowing the share price to rise up to today’s level....I’m disgusted at this share price rising ;)
Agree Dodger....I bet he is in hiding somewhere under the rocks....
Let me go and find the toad as I can hear ribbet.......))
Happy to accept the criticism. Said the results were decent yesterday. This has still dropped 75% in a month so today’s rise means little in scheme of things? It needs to hold. The current share price remains a joke all things considered and make no apologies for thinking this has been hit harder than it ought to have done because of a lack of progress and payment delays...
Another observation, why is this Emma Gudgeon loading up and has purchased more shares than I think the entire management team combined?
An excellent rise today for anyone who put 'new money' into G yesterday. The dividend yield at this level effectively discounting the price significantly, of course. Not quite back to 3x Brent, which hasn't recaptured $30 yet:
https://invst.ly/q6mw5
Here's the Brent based comparison with the others since last Friday:
https://invst.ly/q6m-1
The risks with rapid risers, where 'new money' is involved, is that the percentage rise or fall is relatively large. So, there's a temptation for some of yesterday's buyers to take a quick profit causing the price to retrace. Volatility can be high as a result.
Here's G over the last couple of days v RDS (brown) and Brent (Green). :
https://invst.ly/q6nwe
For LT holders in G , who might commit new money in order to average down, it might be wise to top up in stages and use stop losses to lock-in profits at each stage. There is an obvious risk that, having risen sharply ahead of the field today that there could be a retrace. The covid saga, delayed payments and the OP issue still have a long way to run. But it seems we've potentially seen the bottom.
On Thursday - after the FY Report & Div announcement - G closed at 60p with Brent at $27 ie 2.22x - similar to the rest of the week. But by the close on Friday G was nearly 84p with Brent nearly $28, ie3x . Brent has since dropped back to Thursday’s best.
This is how the last week ran for our usual five: https://invst.ly/q6zay
(DNO not shown in full because this happens: https://invst.ly/q6zbj )
Did confirmation of the dividend cause nearly half of Friday’s 24p sp rise? And, if so, did it take a full 24 hours for that effect to occur? Or was Friday's gain more solidly based? I'm anticipating some retrace but could well be wrong in this weird market.
The value of the dividend is somewhat illusory because the sp will drop by that amount when it goes ex-div (although this change can be offset or enhanced by other market forces on the day). So it is effectively ‘cost neutral’ overall in terms of acquiring a share.
Ultimately a share is worth what it is worth over the long term, with payment of a dividend affecting the price only a relatively short while before and a short while after. The intended dividend has caused G’s yield to become very high currently, which could backfire over time if the sp does not rise, as higher yields tend to be associated with proportionately higher risks.
Interesting price action around 2pm, with G pushing 3.2x Brent on the boyo ratio. Here's how it looks on the daily chart v 3xBrent: https://invst.ly/q7jzo
... and on the last five days v Brent and the others: https://invst.ly/q7k06
US market making the difference it seems.
Continuing reaction to the maintained dividend?
It was quite an expression of management confidence in Genel's future prospects.
That's a trick worth remembering. Ha!
That performance v OP is better than when G was around 180p on 20th Feb. Woud put it over 190.
Boyo - an hour or two from a master stroke today, well played sir, no cigar this time but you were on the right track for sure.
Interesting H.
No bunks, I was not on the right track. Expected a drop back below 80p. But H's post explains why G has not moved quite as expected and often in the opposite direction to RDS and Brent.
Beautiful to watch the last couple of days: https://invst.ly/q7msj
It would be good if it fully regained the 90p support AND the bottom blue trend at 92p here:
https://invst.ly/q7mp8
Some slackening-off for G today after two spectacular trading days. It will be interesting to see how it performs after the US market opens. Last three days (from Thursday's close): https://invst.ly/q7z8j
granted I am a greedy so and so but thought we might get something out of todays market, or are we saying we'd be down 10%+ down in a neutral market, if such a thing exists in the current C-19 environment.
Share price rising rapidly as the case with G from 56p to 91+ p is massive in a few days only so it has to pause before another major rise...
We obviously need krg to cough up before 31/3 to give us an extra booster...otherwise it will be a setback..
All good here imo
Well all the ducks are lining back up after the last three trading days, with RDS reassuring investors and OP holding fairly steady since Thursday:
https://invst.ly/q81z9
Presumably your buddies have stopped buying for the moment H?
G still strong at 3x OP but falling back more in line by today's close.
IMV, G will only advance significantly and sustainably when OP and/or the other thing improve.
I just acquired a few but kinda expecting G to move lower again based on people being a bit over-optimistic about moving on quickly from C-19 and the direction of OP in coming weeks.
Genel and the market rolling along nicely today, with the NY exchange now starting to kick-in, let's see how the afternoon goes:
Last four days of the usuals in 5 minute bites: https://invst.ly/q8g3q
Seems I was overcautious yesterday - yet the virus, payment and OP issues are hardly put to bed are they?
Stop losses to protect valuable gains against retraces?
On the way up, btw it may be worth noting a couple of gaps:
97, the lower of two marked here, has just been filled. The next is a lot juicier at 127-137.
https://invst.ly/q8ge-
These may, of course assist with planning stops....
A quite excellent day, obviously.
G not playing by the book but, for once, in a very good way. An interesting dilemma for those tempted to trade: whoever has been buying is paying no attention to OP or COVID-19 - some degree of recovery is now built into the price, unlike most of the others on our usual chart: https://invst.ly/q8its
So: will they keep buying or will the price drop back - bearing in mind it is now somewhat higher than the market and OP would ordinarily support? Just also bear in mind the gap at 128-137, which seems a lot closer than when I mentioned it earlier:
https://invst.ly/q8iuo . I did take some profits late this pm but my core holding is very much intact!
Good luck all.