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Thanks LB
Any abuse from you is a compliment. I wouldnt ever want to be of the same mindset as you. It would be an insult to my intelligence and an automatic downgrade to the ******ed bench.
The fact that they had to write an article about it just shows there are others who think like me. I'm glad someone proved me wrong by fact and not just drivel.
mind you GDR no longer has a market cap of 59mil any more.
>GDR have cashed up, the CEO is paid astronomical wages
This website analysis thinks the CEO's salary is normal for such a company
https://simplywall.st/news/should-you-worry-about-genedrive-plcs-longdr-ceo-salary-level/
UserSteve
I think you're reasoning is slightly flawed, you quite rightly point out the number of tests are increasing and the infections are dropping.
The key point is as you say the number of tests increasing. GDR sell tests.
Also whilst the UK was our primary market and EU second, you're absolutely right, we may have missed the boat for the UK, but the UK has a population of 65m. There are nearly 8bn people in the world. And many of those countries housing those people have not hit peak yet. So given the fact that they need to test, test and test some more. One can also argue that we missed a smaller market to enter a bigger one. And the second wave, whether it happens or not, all the countries will need to have tests, PPE and hospital beds above standard levels incase it happens. People will riot in the streets, burn parliament down if they find out that wave 2 happens and we still dont have tests, PPE or capacity.
What i do totally agree with is the lack of urgency from GDR to do anything 'significant'. And my fear is that 8m in the bank and even if they dont sell a single test, its still 8m in the bank. GDR have cashed up, the CEO is paid astronomical wages, and the rest could be history. Many have been here before GDR and done the cash in and walked off into the sunset.
Plus calf’s not far off using the 1563 kits per week forecast (Below 2020 comparison):
- 22 weeks if we start selling in Aug (bit of time to enable are ‘assumed’ approvals to land)
- 22 x £1.5m = £33m Rev (vs my £28.8m) / 34.3k Kits (vs my 30k)
PP
1st set off figs based on 2020 forecast.
To add - I think to achieve 25% of Novacyt sales is quite conservative all things considering.
PP
Collated reposts from wkd:
‘’Per RNS, 3 prime targets; India, Africa, US:
- India = 10k (incl original 1k - expect that’s the source)
- Africa = 3k
- US = 15k
- EU = 2k (based on expanded CE approval)
Total = 30k kits / £28.8m Rev / £17.28m Profit
Circa 25% of Novacyt Rev achieved / ordered.’’
‘’Ok - so building this out further to extrapolate to annual sales / rev / profit based on my estimates:
- 79.9k kits / £68m Rev / £40.8m Profit
Plus other products:
- 2021 Estimate in ‘19 year end report = £4.2m
- DoD Pathogen Detection Units / Assays + RNR-1 Assay for AIHL / HCV-ID Kit
- Challenges in HCV market due to Covid so will deduct arbitrary £1m
- So £3.2m Rev / Profit (use 50% as proxy) £1.6m
POC COVID Test
- Don’t worry not forgot, expected end of year (some expect earlier - me include)
- H2 Rev??? Need help here as blind to any financials but going to guesstimate circa Rev £20m conservatively / Profit (use 50% as proxy) £10m
Total 2020 July ‘20 to June ‘21 = Rev £91.2m / Profit £52.4m
Thoughts - challenge away!
Plus, anybody got a preference on valuation method so we can square back to projected SP?’’
PP
As a matter of interest which saliva test do you think the GOV are using as a comparison to Lab PCR?
Saliva based PCC test. Posted by Jiffy on AVCT.
It’s worth a read
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-saliva-test-for-coronavirus-piloted-in-southampton
Trek
Steve,covid is still it it's infancy and on a high trajectory upwards around the world. Sorry to burst your bubble. Please read WHOs latest update and look at the US,India, Brazil and Philippines where I live for an example. U k is an anomaly at the moment compared to the rest of he world. Wait a few months.
they have record order 1 million only but not sale so nothing at moment if they can pass and start record order take sometime more , there are now many test available to competitive now so the price to value should be consider if too expenses nobody want to buy .covid still over there so test still need but how to get market share to gain
starresnstoff: Thanks for the info. It is a very good thing that proper controls and validation are taking place. Now that you mention it, it should actually be in GDR's favour that the approvals process is taking a relatively long time.
The virus is very much in decline. In the UK, the peak of deaths, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), was 8th April - that's right, three months ago. The number of daily deaths has been in decline ever since.
If you're talking about the number of people that have tested positive, then that has indeed been increasing. But that is because the number of tests that is being done has also been increasing. A better (but not perfect) indication of the spread is the percentage of new people testing positive per day.
For example, today the latest figures for the UK are 820 new cases,out of 153,667 tests (0.5%)
On 11 June, there were 1,266 new cases out of 197,007 tests (0.6%)
On 11 May, there were 3,877 new cases out of 65,337 people tested (5.9%%)
On 11 Apr, there were 5,234 new cases out of 12,993 people tested (40%)
So 40% reduces to 5.9% reduces to 0.6% reduced to 0.5%. That looks like a decline to me.
(Figures obtained from https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public)
My figures we estimates, as I stated, but I showed what my estimates were based on. Could you show how you and others come to the figure of sales of £1.5m/week?
Here is what I think:
- Even though GDR may very well have produced a top quality product, the unfortunate reality is that it obviously not of sufficient quality to persuaded the regulators of all the approached countries nor the many approached customers to make this product available. If the product really were something special, we would have seen a commensuate response from both regulators and customers.
- There are hundreds of companies around the world producing a similar product. Many of these companies have resources, experience, and medical/scientific knowledge that far exceed GDR's.
- I have not seen any evidence that indicates that GDR or its CEO has a drive or urgency to bring a profitable product to market in a timely manner. On the contrary, the evidence I have seen, both in the RNS releases and the recent investor presentation, strongly suggests the CEO (and thus GDR) is driven primarily by a strong moral desire to achieve significant, meaningful advances in health. While the world is a better place with companies like GDR, this does not traslate into a soaring share price (sorry to burst your bubbles).
- Having said that, the fact that £1m of conditional sales have been taken in 2-3 months is indeed significant. This is around 40% of all of last year's sales in the space of 2 months; and for one subset of produce alone. If I had to guess, I would estimate that, assuming approval is granted in all sales areas, we would see between £2.5m to £10m in additional sales in the short term (i.e. the next 6 months). If the virus continues on for many more months and into next year, these sales contracts may also continue on as well; but if the virus continues to decline (as seems to be the general trajectory), then the demand for COVID tests will also decline.
For me, I would estimate that a likely outcome would be that GDR achieve between £2.5m to £10m of sales for its COVID teat, in addition to it regular revenue. This corresponds to an estimated annual revenue between £5m to £12m, which is 2 to 5 times last year's revenue.
I'm not sure how this translates to an expectation of share price, but purely by applying the difference: GDR's share price last year was around 20p; increase that by 2 to 5 times, yeilds an estimated share price of 40p to 100p.
So perhaps the placing price of 80p was not far off the mark
Ok - so building this out further to extrapolate to annual sales / rev / profit based on my estimates:
- 79.9k kits / £68m Rev / £40.8k Profit
Plus other products:
- 2021 Estimate in ‘19 year end report = £4.2m
- DoD Pathogen Detection Units / Assays + RNR-1 Assay for AIHL / HCV-ID Kit
- Challenges in HCV market due to Covid so will deduct arbitrary £1m
- So £3.2m Rev / Profit (use 50% as proxy) £1.6m
POC COVID Test
- Don’t worry not forgot, expected end of year (some expect earlier - me include)
- H2 Rev??? Need help here as blind to any financials but going to guesstimate circa Rev £20m conservatively / Profit (use 50% as proxy) £10m
Total 2020 July ‘20 to June ‘21 = Rev £91.2m / Profit £52.4m
Thoughts - challenge away!
Plus, anybody got a preference on valuation method so we can square back to projected SP?
PP
i prefer 1563 kits a week sound almost doable :)
We’re not miles apart with our proverbial fingers in the air, based on:
- 22 weeks if we start selling in Aug (bit of time to enable are ‘assumed’ approvals to land)
- 22 x £1.5m = £33m Rev (vs my £28.8m) / 34.3k Kits (vs my 30k)
PP
Ok - only fair I put out an initial view for 2020.
Per RNS, 3 prime targets; India, Africa, US:
- India = 10k (incl original 1k - expect that’s the source)
- Africa = 3k
- US = 15k
- EU = 2k (based on expanded CE approval)
Total = 30k kits / £28.8m Rev / £17.28m Profit
Circa 25% of Novacyt Rev achieved / ordered.
Stalking horse in-play - feel free to challenge...
Once we land above - can move on to expected rev streams.
PP
company aimed to sell £1.5M a week.
so that would be 1563 kits? roughly :)
That doesn't sound like to much tbh.
they have the manufacturing capacity (assuming 40hr week) (before any increase in capacity) of 4166 :)
some where between those two numbers would be very nice indeed :)
in reality i have no idea at all
Firstly, nice to see some prefects rock up today & restore some order to the playground.
Secondly, humour me, let’s fast forward to point in time when approvals all in play. How many kits do we forecast to sell this year?
Stats:
- Kit = 96 Tests
- Test = £10 - £8 (profit circa 60%)
- Kit Cost = £960 (using £10 for ease!)
So far - pending approvals:
- 1000 kits sold / circa £960k (close enough)
Thoughts?
PP