George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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Yes rbr08, CYP2C19 could be a lot bigger if it starts to get used for other indications as well as strokes. We had a clinician on this board who addressed this.
The potential is beyond doubt. As bighammer says, we just need to sort out the funding. It can't be too long now before we find out something.
@bighammer, as per the last presentation, Cheek showed a slide which stated the Total Addressable Market for CYP2C19 is £220M, while further stating that this has the potential to be higher (due to more recent research and GDRs initial assumptions).
£5m sounds a lot and 12 months does nt seem long but the stroke test market is about £150m world wide so only 3% then sales from hearing test and grants etc so definately do able as long as in July we get full approval which seems likely
Apologies System I forgot I wont post on here again.. RUA is the place to be now ...
*****16..what you doing here ..man of my word etc my atsr...someone not to be trusted..imho
With the best will in the world bigh I can’t see sales reaching £4.8m. An ambitious target imho would be half of that. So, with money from Grants and Tax credits I think a modest raise of £2.4m wd reassure everyone in the short term. A raise of £3m wd hopefully be enough to pay for De Novo FDA submission and go some way to covering costs of clinical trials. It’ll be a telling sign of the state of the LsE and AiM in particular if GDR, armed with NICE approval for two tests that have a combined potential market of $200m, Cheek can’t raise £3m
I reckon an open placing for retail might raise a fair amount on its own. Just hope Cheek doesn’t ignore lths
With the best will in the world bigh I can’t see sales reaching £4.8m. An ambitious target imho would be half of that. So, with money from Grants and Tax credits I think a modest raise of £2.4m wd reassure everyone in the short term. A raise of £3m wd hopefully be enough to pay for De Novo FDA submission and go some way to covering costs of clinical trials. It’ll be a telling sign of the state of the LsE and AiM in particular if GDR, armed with NICE approval for two tests that have a combined potential market of $200m, Cheek can’t raise £3m
I reckon an open placing for retail might raise a fair amount on its own. Just hope Cheek doesn’t ignore lths
Big hammer you hit the nail on the head .. The potential is huge , hence the reason I invested ... The company has a proven track record of failures ... hence the need a strong positive proof of the potential they have that no one can ague
100 percent ... if a BIG player to join them , now that would give the market extreme confidence and the icing on the cake is NICE approval along side the partner ship , and then this is going to fly ...
Its interesting when you look at the list Eureka posted yesterday that the only real negative is financing , BUT that far outways all the positives currently . How long would it take to get to sales being the same as outgoings , 12 months i think roughly , so if we could get £5m deal then this could turn round very quickly. if the stroke test IS nailed on then a deal should be quite easy with a discount of about 30% ish . Although an FDA approval would be great it is not the holy grail as it is about 1 third of potential worldwide sales for the hearing tests and we are already getting sales although slowly. As an R and D company we are on the cusp , but like most this is where we could fail but i think in Cheek we have a very real chance of progress , unless something a little underhand pops up . These tests have a potential of multi million pound incomes per annum so never rule anything out.
Lionel - I listened to that report. Splitting hairs maybe but… The lady does NOT say ‘soon’. She says work is continuing in gathering evidence as part of the early valuation assessment BEFORE the test is rolled out across the NHS.
I wish she had said soon as that would have given me more confidence looking towards the next two or three months. As it is, we’re all just hoping the news in July from NICE is hugely positive and gives the sp the proverbial kick up the backside and then enables Cheek to do successful placing. I hope when that happens he will give existing retail shares holders an opportunity to participate.
Getting * either one * of the GDR tests….
Fat fingers!
Getting they of the GDR tests rolled out nationally in the NHS is the Holy Grail for GDR. If that’s true and is within let’s say the next six months then Cheek will be forgiven anything and everything. Annual costs are £4.8m. So even if sales are half of the estimated £8.5m market here in the UK that would put the company within touching distance of becoming self sufficient. With another R&D tax credit it’s mightily close to the achieving the first major step in properly putting this company on the map. God, I hope she is telling the truth.
From what I was told, not all territories/countries outside the likes of UK/EU/US require individual approval to the extent of UKCA/CE/FDA status. Some countries directly accept these recognisied certifications and just have administrative paper to add.
The CYP2C19 is already UKCA marked, so yes it can be sold in the UK. However the issue here has always been, as Cheek highlighted, that the NHS do not just buy in adhoc manner - everything feeds through approved yearly budgets which feed off other 3rd party approval/ recommendation frameworks eg. NICE. So Cheek being better positioned to open comms with such budget facing individuals with the NHS has been a massive improvement for GDR
Https://youtu.be/9h9_XPf1Pyg?feature=shared
Very informative , 2 GDR tests mentioned , and also she says RNR1 test will be rolled out across the country soon .
CYp2C19 has to be registered in each territory before it can be sold. That takes about 6months. Can it even be sold in the UK yet or are they still awaiting the required license for that as well?
Good summary Eureka01, just to add if /when we get full approval for the stroke test this could make a huge difference to the roll out world wide as NICE carries a lot of credence and would speed up any use for other health care around the world.
Apologies. That should read potential world market £100 million. The UK market is indeed assessed at £8.5 million.
All good Eureka but I thought the potential market in the UK was £8m?
Time to look at the upside and downside of GDR at present.
Positives
AIHL
1)The company now has a research partner, a leading multi state physician group within the USA "to support clinical studies required for engagement with the FDA to progress the regulatory approval of the Genedrive MT-RNR1 ID Kit into the USA." In the interims we were told that this organization has "broad coverage of neonatal intensive care units nationally". So ideally placed.
2)GDR also has a distributor agreement with International Biomedical Ltd "to support the FDA study and future sales in the United States ". So a 2 pronged approach to progress to approval in the US.
3)Can be used in the NHS with the NICE conditional recommendation.
4)New sites already announced in the IMC presentation.
5)Potential £100m market in the UK.
6)Specialist Commissioning being pushed for.
Stroke Test
1)Public consultation which started in May 2023 finally ended today after multiple delays. Publication date is scheduled for the 10th July....though NICE approval could come earlier James Cheek in the IMC presentation: "Cannot see any reason why anything will change to the final recommendation".
2)UKCA certified which permits sales within the UK.
3)DEVOTE study anticipated completing in May with submission shortly thereafter.
Negatives
AIHL
1)The de novo submission to the FDA is anticipated to start in late 2024, subject to funding, according to the CEO in the IMC presentation.. So some way off and the caveat of "subject to funding". But the new partnership should help!
2)Specialist Commissioning might not be before April 2025 though earlier approval is being pushed for.
Stroke Test
1)The review process following the DEVOTE study is anticipated to take 5 to 7 months, so some way off.
Finances
Positive
1)No Riverfort overhang at present.
Negative
1)Urgent need to raise funds.
So there we have it. Lots of potentially positive news flow but the elephant in the room is the urgent need to raise funds.
Public consultation ends today so from this moment on all eyes on the NICE website.
Bye Bye...!
Time to say good bye all .. My prediction has happened .. so as I am a man of my word ... I would like to take this opportunity to wish you all much prosperity and good luck with GDR (going to need it ) and life ..
May the gods bless ...
N5
It’s pretty simple. GDR isn’t an investment it’s a trader’s share.
The buy and hold strategy for Genedrive has been a complete and utter disaster, as any number of long term holders on here, significantly under water, can attest, and often do.
The money to be made here (apart from River Fort and management) has been either on the Short side (and they have every financial incentive to trash the share’s reputation on here obviously), or from the relatively frequent, sharp spikes, caused by short covering and speculative longs.
That is what keeps some of us on here. Waiting for opportunities. Which may come after a raise, presently. If there wasn’t any prospect of making money I certainly wouldn’t waste my time on here myself and I doubt others would either.
You do realise that suggesting that only current shareholders have the right to post on here is completely ridiculous, right?
Please stick to your promise tiger
Roger, AIHL test I believe for 2027 (FDA approval expected then).
Not sure if we’ll get an update regarding the consultation as I don’t think we did for the first one or with AIHL’s consultations but let’s see.