I see MAJWandCo. is at it again. He seems very determined to push the price down. He forgets that the need for a fund raise was clear long before the IMC last Friday and the interims last month. He also forgets that counter balancing the need for funds is the potential for positive news in the coming weeks and months.
Some seem disappointed by today's presentation. But I was reasonably happy with it. First I did not expect anything dramatic. As I pointed out earlier we would have had an RNS if there was something dramatic to report.
Secondly there were many positives, albeit some of them a repetition of known facts.
1)Tests are low cost, rapid (as little as 26 minutes), touch screen operated, no need to send to labs, no need for fridges or freezers.
2) CYP2C19 has the UKCA, permitting UK commercialisation.
3) AIHL, Total addressable UK market £100 million.
4)AIHL, Waiting for US strategic partner to sign.
5) CYP2C19, They can't see any reason why anything should change between draft and final submission in July.
6) CYP2C19 could be used outside the realms of strokes, for anybody being given clopidogrel, to test whether the patient will have problems metabolising it or not. So potential market for the test could be much higher than currently forecast as JH pointed out.
7) AIHL, Two new UK sites coming on this week.
8)They believe Riverfort has no more shares to offload.
9) They still have £1.5 million on Riverfort funding. They would like to offer the investors a chance to participate. Not wanting to draw down further at present. So hopefully Riverfort not off loading millions more shares on the market, depressing the share price but it is there in case!
So all in all I'm reasonably satisfied today.
Logic would dictate that any fund raise would be on the back of a positive piece of news so that the price of a placing/ open offer (if they go down that route) would be maximized. IMO
I see the rampers such as David6576 are out in force today, Wild assertions such as going to 50p in a few weeks or 100% today are likely to be well short of the mark. I expect the IMC to be positive but tempered by the need to fund raise. So let's not get carried away. If there was an important announcement we would have seen an RNS.
"Could this be the equity placing that was talked about?"
Definitely not.
From the Half Year Results:
""The Board intends to provide a mechanism for retail shareholders to participate in any equity financing and a further announcement will be made in due course."
Great to have the draft guidance recommendation of the CYP2C19-ID test today. The final recommendations are expected to be published by NICE on 10 July 2024. So we have 3 months to wait until we know if we are over the finishing line on this one.
The timing of today's announcement was fortuitous with the IMC coming up on Friday. James finally has something positive to boost the morale of long suffering shareholders. Last November the sp went on to double after the positive pronouncements at that time from the CEO. Will the same happen this time? I suspect that James will be more cautious after the failure of many of his previous forecasts to materialize in the given time frame.
Then, of course there is the elephant in the room of the urgent need for funds. If the company is able to come up with a non dilutive means of raising substantial funds that would be massive. But that is by no means a given. There are a variety of possible sources, aside from further drawdowns from RF, as highlighted in the Half Year Report:
"Our initial discussions have been with the Manchester ICB to obtain funding from April 2024 for the live sites across the Greater Manchester region".
"The Company is at advanced stages in agreeing a partnership with a key strategic USA-based Medical Group".
"The news that funding is to be made available from the government's Office for Life Sciences via NIHR for the real world evidence generation required by NICE for our Genedrive® MT-RNR1 ID Kit is very welcome".
And a big hint that there will be some sort of public offering coming up soon: "The Board intends to provide a mechanism for retail shareholders to participate in any equity financing and a further announcement will be made in due course."
So where do we go from here? With the company having two great products showing definite if somewhat delayed progress, I remain cautiously optimistic.