Member Info for Eureka01

I'm out in the Far East at present...so far from the action. I see that, amidst a few nuggets, the usual mixture of ramping and de-ramping has been going on for the last few days. "I have a feeling Genedrive will rocket 🚀 to 2.3p today" or "SP about to be worth less than zero!" don't actually get us very far. At least if posters are going to make sweeping statements let them have something concrete to back the speculation! 🙂

Re your deramper post, Gloria, agreed. I was called a deramper and a "disgruntled ex-lover" for simply pointing out the facts. There are some who only want to see things through rose tinted specs!

Re the "NHS income streams" my latest info is still that national commissioning is unlikely to happen for the moment even though the unit responsible for the pilots has been pushing for the take up of the POC tests on the same grounds that we are all aware of...the speed of the test results. But it boils down to economics. The genomics division doesn't have the funding. However there are possibilities through the regional Integrated Care Boards (ICBs). The commissioning decisions are expected now by Christmas.

JH, I'm simply pointing out the facts. I would not call that deramping. I did mention "aside from DN". Assuming he come up with the £1m that only takes the company into early next year on present projections.

"it’s all coming good.. we are almost there" With respect, Lionel, the company...and the market... seem to disagree.

."The Board and its advisers had sought other financing solutions from a wide range of potential providers over several months, and whilst some preliminary term sheets were received none of these provided a more favourable solution to the Equity Financing which has been presented to shareholders....

The Company did engage with some specialist venture debt providers, but no term sheets were received from such groups given the position of the Company. The Company also had discussions with a small number of its larger shareholders in the days prior to the announcement of the Equity Financing and no alternative proposals were received as a result of those discussions....

The Company also confirms it did not receive any expressions of interest from potential acquirers of the Company ahead of the Equity Financing and has not received any subsequently....

The Board would welcome Mr Nugent providing a viable alternative financing proposal to the Equity Financing, but should such a proposal not be received and the Conditional Placing and Retail Offer not complete, the Board considers that it is highly likely that the Company would in the coming weeks be required to take steps in order to protect the interests of, inter alia, creditors of the Company."

If it were all coming good why would the company itself and potential investors (aside from DN) be so wary?

AI response to the question:

"Yes, the company Genedrive plc is the point-of-care pharmacogenetic testing company whose kits are being used and assessed in national testing programmes in NHS Scotland to transform stroke care.

Specifically, the company's Genedrive® CYP2C19 ID Kit is used in an interventional testing program for stroke patients. This test quickly identifies genetic variants that affect how well a patient responds to the common antiplatelet drug clopidogrel."

There is a lengthy article in 360dx which highlights the sort of challenges faced by diagnostic companies like Genedrive. Unfortunately it is under a paywall but here are the main points:

The challenges:

1)Sluggish capital market.

2)Regulatory burdens.

3)Larger diagnostic companies like Roche and Abbott have reduced M and A activity.

4)Investors are investing in more traditional, less risky, companies that don't require the capital investments of diagnostic companies.

The positives:

1)The US has become a more attractive entry point as filing an application with the FDA has become a "remarkably straightforward process" these days.

2)The UK government plans to invest £2 billion to support the life science sector over the next decade.

3)There are opportunities in the US for companies developing "companion diagnostic tests" (such as the CYP2C19 ID kit) to get funding.

https://www.360dx.com/business-news/uk-diagnostics-companies-grapple-difficult-early-stage-investment-market

Lionel, I hope you're right but if the outlook is so rosy why was nobody else, apart from possibly DN, prepared to step up and support the company? If prospects were looking so good for next year, you would have thought the board would have put forward some of what you have alluded to in more concrete terms, rather than the vague waffle in the last sentence.

"Genedrive plc (LSE:GDR) has clarified recent speculation surrounding its equity financing, confirming that it was the only feasible option after evaluating multiple alternatives. The company engaged with potential investors and shareholders but did not secure more favorable offers or acquisition interest. The funds raised extend Genedrive’s cash runway to the end of 2025, though the company cautions that financial uncertainty remains if further funding is not obtained. The board stresses the importance of shareholder support in upcoming resolutions to avoid potential protective measures for creditors.

Despite strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, Genedrive continues to face profitability challenges. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, and valuation remains unattractive due to the lack of profits. Nonetheless, recent corporate developments provide promising potential to strengthen market positioning and future prospects."

Lol, Lionel. If people want to see everything through rose-tinted glasses then so be it. I have been one of the most ardent supporters of the products but take a realistic view of the prospects. At the moment the company is in a parlous state. Hopefully DN will come up with something to keep the company going (and that's going to take a lot more than the £million talked about) but time will tell.

Jimi, I'm not denying that hospitals WILL need the POC test. What I'm saying is that I believe this will be done on an individual hospital level and not on a national level!

Hi Jimi, "I think it’s obvious that it WILL be rolled out nationally." Having talked to my contact at genomics I'm not so sure now. The problem is the preference for lab testing. I think you would acknowledge that you, like many of us, have been over optimistic in the past. For instance, "National Commissioning of our products brings significant upside to the sales forecasts (on track for April)". (3rd March). "National commissioning will be effective from the date of the implementation guide and toolkit". (5th March). "National commissioning is just days/weeks away" (18th June).

I hope you're right but only time will tell.🙂

Ok, GDR have sometimes called it "specialist commissioning" and sometimes "national commissioning".

"We continue to pursue all avenues to ensure we achieve specialist commissioning before the current timescale of April 2025. In line with specialist commissioning being devolved to the Integrated Care Boards ("ICBs"). (Interims March 2024)

Question: "Will national commissioning take place by April?" Response: "We remain confident of that." (Investor Meet Company Dec 2024)

AI take: "The NHS has national commissioning, primarily for specialised services and public health programmes, which is handled by NHS England. However, the model has shifted to more local commissioning, with NHS England delegating many functions, such as primary care services, to Integrated Care Boards (ICBs)."

Following my post a couple of weeks ago I again made contact with the unit responsible for the CYP2C19 pilot. The news was disappointing.

1)NHSE still has not got back to them to enable them to publish the findings.

2)The national commissioning for the POC test may not happen at all according to my contact. The preference, I was told, is for lab testing and as a result my contact understood that POC testing for CYP2C19 is not "in scope" certainly for the time being. That doesn't preclude individual trusts/hospitals from taking it up as indeed we saw at Peterborough City Hospital but it won't, it seems, happen at a national level at least for the moment.

So there we have it. Not what we were hoping for but hopefully with the time delays involved in lab testing more individual hospitals will follow the lead of Peterborough City Hospital and decide to take it up.

With DN's welcome involvement in Genedrive one has to wonder why the chairman, Ian Gilham, does not get more involved. He is a director of a number of companies and clearly a wealthy individual. Yet with his wealth and his connections he has not been able to either make a loan or arrange non dilutive financing. Yes, he does own 2.5 million shares in the company but many shareholders here own more than that!

It would be a welcome move if he too were to step up to the plate!

AI summary of the potential benefits of DN's loan:

Extended Cash Runway: The funding provides Genedrive with an additional estimated 3-4 months of operational capital (potentially into Q1/Q2 2026), allowing more time to secure longer-term financing or commercial deals.

Avoids Share Dilution: As a loan, it is a non-dilutive bridge, which is a highly attractive alternative for shareholders compared to previous deep-discount placings that would have increased the total number of shares and diluted existing stakes.

Stabilised Sentiment: The potential for a significant shareholder to provide financial backing reduces the near-term bankruptcy risk, which could stabilise market sentiment and make the company more attractive to speculative traders and potentially small institutions.

Potential for Strategic Partnership: The offer could reposition David Nugent as a key strategic partner, potentially providing a face-saving development for the board after a previous shareholder vote rejected their own financing plan.

The other benefit of this is that hopefully with the boost to the sp, the company could come back with a placing/rights issue at a much higher level than the previous ridiculous 0.2p and there would be far less dilution.

Just what the doctor ordered.🙂 DN has been adding to his shareholding and now the willingness to make a loan. He certainly wouldn't be expecting his money to go down the pan.

Even Zak's got onto the act. At 6m30s.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skzlbpk-Kts

Last time DN announced increased holdings on the 15th October (from 10 to 15%), the sp having risen up to that point on the day, actually fell. So we shall see.

A very useful article imo.

"...The announcement triggered a sharp reversal in the company’s share price, which had been under sustained downward pressure for most of the past 12 months. This pilot signals a potential gateway into large-scale government-backed adoption in Saudi Arabia and possibly across the broader Gulf region.

...What makes the test clinically significant is its 26-minute turnaround time and the fact that it can be performed at the point of care using Genedrive Plc’s proprietary thermocycler platform. Importantly, the test is stable at ambient temperatures, meaning it does not require refrigeration—an operational advantage in geographies like Saudi Arabia where cold chain logistics are a challenge.

...If the MT-RNR1 test is successfully implemented across Saudi hospitals, it could trigger new conversations with other health ministries across the GCC bloc. This would provide a scalable entry point for Genedrive Plc into public tenders and potentially into multi-year volume contracts.

...By focusing on pharmacogenetics—where individual genetic data guides medication choice—Genedrive Plc is participating in a broader transformation of healthcare delivery. Success in Saudi Arabia could help the company position itself as a standard-setting player in this emerging segment."

https://business-news-today.com/genedrive-plc-lse-gdr-stock-surges-after-saudi-arabia-signs-mou-to-pilot-mt-rnr1-pharmacogenetic-test-kit/