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4/5p is my thinking, altho with GCM, you never know, could easy go back to 1p for all we know. I bet it goes lower before it goes higher from here tho. I always work on the assumption of 20% under placing price, so 5.20p before at least i have a small ish punt here.
How low will the market makers drop it, can't see it going much below placing price
Good post @Redeyemines ;)
very informative and clear.
Load Shedding getting much worse, knock on affect right across the economy and all walks of life.
The Power Division has directed all commercial establishments, including shopping malls, to be shut by 8:00pm and asked that AC temperatures be kept at 25°C or above to ensure uninterrupted power during the ongoing heatwave.
The Power Division also asked shops, shopping malls, petrol pumps and CNG stations to avoid using extra lights with a view towards lowering electricity costs.
The Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB), the only state agency for transmission of electricity from power stations to the national grid, today said the electricity demand across the country was 16,200MW at 2pm.
However, electricity generation stood at 12,753MW, resulting in a deficit of 3,447MW.
https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/energy/keep-ac-25degc-close-malls-8pm-ensure-uninterrupted-power-power-division-839256
Hi Adam ---lets just take a really simply look at the figs.
-Since the 16th shares traded amount to around 40 mill.----If we assume half are sales, then 20 mill have gone.
-But that's too simple.
-I watched the days when every buy was getting filled "DIRECT" from the inhouse sell order, so on those days virtually all the T/O were sales ---(buys filled by direct sales).
-It's been a hard one to follow but i'm fairly confident my figs (6-8 mill left to sell), are much nearer the mark than yours.
-We could easily go home one evening only to see a large late trade, and that will be that.
-As I said, it may take a day or two after they have finish, before people realise that there is no longer a seller----That is what happened with the last raise---2.2 for 3 days after they finished and then a straight line to 9.5 p.
-Getting to the stage where trying to be too clever could be a mistake.
-Just my opinion.
-DYOR
Redeye i was typing out my post while yours went live so only just read it. I believe we’re thinking along the same lines…my figures do however match up with sha***d.
I still believe there’s a decent amount of churn left and the makers will create a market soon for them to offload, be that a random spike or off the back of imminent news is anyones guess.
My figures match up pretty much exactly the same as yours sh***ed (nice name lol).
They took the placing, essentially buying for the same reason as us, to make a profit.
They’ve sold some early, recouping some of the cash used in the placing and will continue to do so until they’ve recouped the fronted money, once they’ve banked that it’ll be interesting to see what they do with the remaining 20% or so shares they’ll have for free.
Getting through a churn of 30 million shares is no joke, especially for a ‘binary bet’ of a share that is GCM with historically low/average trading volume, it’s a massive gamble to take for 10-15% profits…
Given we had these guys and plenty of others interested in taking up the placing, you know they’ve been given more info on current happenings with the company than us pi’s (we’re usually the last to know) - anyone who thinks ‘market sensitive info’ isn’t subtly or blatantly presented to financiers is playing ignorant.
To conclude, nobody is throwing away 2m into a company in Bangla that’s never turned a profit, unless they are 100% certain of returns…have a think about it guys.
Shagged---you are of course right as to how Axis is handling this Subscription----but I have different figs than you.
-Been keeping a close eye on all the T/O since the 16th, and working out what could be sales by them.---Also, have tried to second guess as to where they would stop selling ---ie when they have recovered their £2 mill outlay--would they then "run the rest"
-My best guess as at 10 am on Fri and using an average of 7.2p , was that they had 7 mill to go, to take them to about 27.6 mill to have recouped their money.
-At least another 1Mill gone so far today (even at the rock bottom 6.5p), so starting to run out fast now, and could explain why they are happy to take down to 6.5p just to clear it.
---A day or two for it to sink in that the seller is no more, then we will move straight back up.
-Keep em peeled
On the other side, is Hasina really waiting for investors to be on board? Unless they are specific Bangladeshi investors, I doubt it. So does it really matter how many are sold on already?
'Axis Capital Markets Limited ("Axis Capital") has subscribed for the shares on behalf of its clients.'
Mostly, but not always. these 'clients' aren't buying the shares for the same reasons as you and I. i.e- they don't give a hoot about the longer term prospects of GCM and simply want to sell their shares at a higher aggregate price than they bought them. In this case they were bought at 6.5p so as long as the buyer is shifting them above 6.5p then they'll be happy.
So far this particular seller appears to have sold several chunks at varying prices but no higher than 8.5p and the largest of those chunks was for 4.5m shares. There have been several more chunks around the 1m plus mark but really not too many from what I've observed. Perhaps 9m shares sold by the seller at a rough average of 7.5p? Crude estimate I agree but that would equate to only £675,000 worth of shares sold.
Of course, you could argue that Axis's client/s may be shifting them in much smaller amounts ie 100,000 at a time too. It's possible but I'm not banking on it .
30 years , extendable at GCM’s discretion.
Can you explain 'perhaps 1.3 to 1.4 Mill to shift'
Are they already amongst the free float or not?
I thought they were entering the market last week?
The shares that are 'not shifted' where are they if they're not part of the total floated shares?
Also; if not yet sold onto the market, surely we can expect a further downward movement in SP as the supply of shares tick up?
I'm not being pedantic I'm curious as to where this information is coming other than the initial RNS.
I'm not surprised. Not enough buying to get rid of all the placement shares that haven't been moved on. I reckon still at LEAST £1.2m to shift. Perhaps even 1.3-1.4m still to go.
Some delayed buys yet to print
I think this is the buyzone
Surprised we haven't gone on a run higher yet with PR due to start any day and newsflow to start
Watch this space
Used to trade Gcm back in the days
Took a few more myself too..
Took another £500 at 6.7p….lets hope the move up is imminent
Back to placing price, time to load up, Could do with a positive RNS soon to flush out the rest of the placing churn
I can understand your skepticism Mankini.
Governments can be slow and just delay things but the state of play now with their energy crisis is beyond despair.
The trouble is that the residents in bangladesh are so accustomed to their lifestyle of having regular power cuts etc, they don't fight back and demand better quality of life with being provided the basic necessities.
It's a difficult one, this one, hope that they do what's best for the people and economy but who knows.
That is why i became cynical / sceptical for many years recalibrate.
From my opinion Hasina was never going to give the goahead as she gave a pre election promise not to mine Phulbari back when she was first elected. Although, the noise coming out did suggest she was going to break that promise. Hence this article.
As we know, she didn’t break that promise.
However, i have felt for the past year that this term would be her last in office so what has she got to lose now. Add to that this elections manifesto promise of mining their own coal. The dire straits they are in financially & energy production wise.
Plus all the positive statements coming out, the ease of raising funds still.
It all points to an imminent goahead to me
Not enough analysis done on this news- New projects, Chinese RMB transaction top agenda FM may go on advance trip next month. The old Moneyweek article emphasised the scale of Phulbari and PC is state directed. The Finance minister and Hasina probably have a lot of related issues with the granting of permission to OPM and for PC to take it to the next level the issue of being paid for work would be top of the agenda for Xi and then there are the logistics of the job. China would not allow PC to sign operational contracts without the physical on the ground route for the achievement of them.
I don't know if this trip delays further progress to GL but I can see that a thorough discussion on related issues is what Xi would require and this is the stumbling block to overcome the GoB have discovered.
Plus according to that it’s 2034 for the initial lease. So still a while. And as others have said if the GoB doesn’t act now then maybe it never will anyway
“ and may be renewed for further periods of 10 years (GCM’s option).”
There’s a clue in this bit 🤦
Is this Hsxinas plan let it run out and take ownership?
Not as GCM
The £8/£9 price was in Asia Energy time.
Worth people having a research at other assets etc that were going on back then too. It’s all on GCM’s website.