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So a couple of weeks back Tarique sudddenly decided to pop over to Malaysia first before he went onto China, China being Bangladeshs biggest trading partner and investor by far and was always going to his first state visit, the reasons given for he sudden decision would appear , imho, be stretching credibility a bit. I found it very interesting, make of it what you will.

https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/pms-first-visit-abroad-likely-be-kl-then-beijing-4189396

Hi Kipper

Chinas'Belt & Road Initiative'

Not only is use of coal unavoidable its official that domestic resources are going to be used as is will be mined using open pit. It's now in writing in the 'ENERGY ROADMAP 2026–2030 A STRATEGIC PLAN' .

A reminder of whats officially coming :

Barapukuria Coal Mine Expansion Plan

The Barapukuria Coal Mine Expansion Plan has been structured as a phased roadmap. Within the first 180 days, techno-economic feasibility studies for open-pit mining will be initiated. These studies will continue through 2026–27, providing essential data for decision-making.

In 2027–28, feasibility studies will be completed, development projects formulated, and initial extraction activities launched. Based on these results, commercial production is expected to begin during 2028–2030, marking a transition to full-scale operations.

The important thing here has always been the government saying they are going for open pit mining, this has been the holdup for the past 2 decades, they have now stated they are going for it. The statement is in relation to Bara is inconsequential, anyone who has done any research knows that Bara, of itself, isn't economically viable, will only produce a fraction annually of what Phulbari can, even the BCMCL have said it will take 3 years of feasability studies. IMHO the statement on Bara is just the gradual educational PR exercise on getting the populace on board. Practically for the locals it still involves loss of farming land and re location, and the reality on the ground is the existing Bara mine and its management are tainted with all the disasters, corruption allegations, mismanagement, and conflicts with the locals. They know they are way better off with the Asia Energy project. The info on existing coal fields on the Phulbari site has its facts correct about Bara, its issues and connectivity to Phulbari.

The Bangladesh Energy and Power magazine has an article just on the Energy Roadmap, which shows the governments plans on OP , it's well with the whole read.

https://ep-bd.com/view/details/article/MTI4MDc%3D/title?q=bangladesh+energy+roadmap+2026–2030++a+strategic+p

For a bit of context on what I see as the enormity of that news, this is from the Phulbari Site on Coal Field Status page:

Barapukuria is a much smaller basin than Phulbari and as such poses difficulty in that there's not a lot of "mine working room" meaning they'd need to place almost all the overburden material, that has to be excavated to reach coal, in permanently stacked dumps on the surface, allowing little opportunity to do any backfilling. There's also the impact of past underground mining at Barapukuria to contend with.

The most expensive issue for both the Phulbari and Barapukuria deposits would be digging the initial hole to reach first coal. On all fronts it’s more sensible to go forward from Phulbari, its initial excavation on the boundary of the two deposits, utilising the existing plant, skills, manpower and infrastructure, would also allow mining back into Barapukuria and ultimately backfilling of Barapukuria after coal extraction.

In summary mining Barapukuria as open pit, as a standalone project would neither be practical or economically viable. It would be 2030 at the earliest before any approval was given and even if it was forthcoming it would be another 3 years before first coal was reached.

The Phulbari and Barapukuria fields are an extension of each other, they are one giant field. Phulbari's feasibility studies are updated and complete. The pathway to reach first coal is already established with the EPC Contract with Asia Energy’s development partner, Power China. It's the fastest trajectory to sustainable large annual coal production.

DYOR research Google and AI would seem to clarify what the phulbari site is saying, you just have to ask the right questions !

Barapukuria Coal Mine Expansion Plan

The Barapukuria Coal Mine Expansion Plan has been structured as a phased roadmap. Within the first 180 days, techno-economic feasibility studies for open-pit mining will be initiated. These studies will continue through 2026–27, providing essential data for decision-making.

In 2027–28, feasibility studies will be completed, development projects formulated, and initial extraction activities launched. Based on these results, commercial production is expected to begin during 2028–2030, marking a transition to full-scale operations.

The big policy decision was always about utilising Open Pit, that has now been taken, and though this is referring to Bara we all know, including the government, that the real gem is Phulbari, that Bara is a lesser and far more problematic project, there would need to be big relocations too at Bara, plus the government would need to fund , or find funding for it. Phulbari is a no brainer now the OP decision is taken, roll on Tuesday.

https://ep-bd.com/view/details/article/MTI4MDc%3D/title?q=bangladesh+energy+roadmap+2026–2030++a+strategic+p

From the phulbari site...The Khalashpir coal field, covering 12.25 square kilometers, has reserves estimated at 685 million tonnes. A 2017 mining proposal suggested that approximately 164 million tonnes of coal could be recovered using a proposed underground longwall multi-slice mining method. Feasibility studies (2005-06) recommended adopting the longwall mining method for extraction.

While specific annual output figures depend on the final approved plan, similar projects have aimed for 1 million tonnes+ annually.

The field is located at depths ranging from 222 to 516 meters in the Pirganj upazila of Rangpur. It is geologically challenging including loose, water-bearing Dupi Tila Aquifers that can cause significant water inrush during deep mining and can require artificial ground freezing to manage it.

Based on available studies and project timelines, it would take approximately

6 to 7 years to begin coal extraction from the Khalashpir coal field once active development work commence. However, this timeline is conditional upon approval, securing investment, and overcoming technical challenges, as the project has remained in the planning stage for over three decades. Earliest first coal 2033 but likely much longer.

Unless they are completely unresearched, which I doubt, they know this already, 1m a year is a drop in the ocean and a long way off. I think this is simply PR to say we have looked at other fields and the only one we can get any relief in sufficient quantities in the coming years is Phulbari

If I was lending to them before I put good money after bad I would want to know how they are going to realistically turn their economy around and specifically the energy sector

From that article : “Global coal prices haven’t yet risen significantly. But freight and premium charges have increased sharply. We’ll discuss these issues with the Power Division after the Eid holiday and then make a decision.”

From the BBC:

QatarEnergy says there has been "extensive damage" to the plant used to convert natural gas into a liquid, so that it can be carried around the world aboard ships.

The company suspended production at the plant two weeks ago, because vessels were unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and it was running out of storage capacity.

Under normal circumstances, restarting it would have taken several weeks.

But a severely damaged plant could be out of action for a lot longer than that. There are precedents for LNG plants that have suffered major fires being shut down for more than a year.

Bangladesh gets the vast majority of its imported LNG from Qatar.

A year on they will be half way to extracting coal from Phulbari. It would be economical and political suicide if they didn't, for them the timing is a gift

Coal miners are poised to benefit from a rising coal price as a result of the Iran war, says Bloomberg Intelligence.

Analysts at the market research firm say if the Iran war disrupts liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies for several more weeks, coal prices could rise to between $165/t and $185/t.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/coal-prices-poised-for-growth-as-lng-spikes-on-the-back-of-iran-war-2026-03-18

Reading through the article it looks like BD has had to buy LNG at over 2.5 times last years price.... and exporters are wary of selling coal to Bangladesh because of payment issues, and in a sellers market it's going to get even harder to source imports. They were in enough trouble before, multiply that by 2.5 and they are in big trouble..... there is relief on the horizon and it's increasingly likely that they will finally give Phulbari the nod.

'Bangladesh has ramped up coal-fired power generation this month so far, as the country faces an acute LNG shortage triggered by disruptions to shipments from the Mideast Gulf caused by the US/Israel–Iran war.

Coal burn could rise further this month, as LNG imports are set to fall sharply.

The country purchases Indonesian thermal coal of GAR 5,000 kcal/kg and above, a trader said. Argus assessed Indonesian GAR 5,000 kcal/kg coal at $72.46/t fob on 13 March, up from $69.60/t before the conflict in the Mideast Gulf began. Low and mid-calorific value Indonesian coal prices are also elevated because of uncertainties surrounding mining firms' 2026 production quotas.'

"Brokering into Bangladesh is not easy because of payment issues and negotiating letters of credit from banks," a trader said. The country's reliance on overseas supply continues to strain its foreign exchange reserves and is raising concern among exporters.

The war in the Mideast Gulf has led to state-owned gas distributor RPGCL awarding spot cargoes at much higher prices than usual. It awarded a 15-16 March delivery cargo to trading firm Gunvor at $28.28/mn Btu, and another for 18-19 March shipment to trading firm Vitol at $23.08/mn Btu, traders said. Bangladesh was last in the spot market late last year, securing a cargo for 4-5 January delivery at $10.37/mn Btu from TotalEnergies, and a 9-10 January delivery cargo from South Korean trading firm Posco at $9.99/mn Btu.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2802238-bangladesh-ramps-up-coal-fired-output-on-lng-shortages

Asia spot LNG prices double while coal up around 14%

War-driven LNG shock seen destroying Asian gas demand

Bangladesh, Philippines, Thailand ramp up coal output

MUTED SPOT COAL IMPORTS, RENEWABLES ADOPTION

The key Asian benchmark for thermal coal has risen 13.2% this month. By comparison, European coal futures are 14.2% higher, ​with Kpler analysts expecting EU thermal coal imports to rise 36% to 30 million tons this year on low gas ​inventories.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/asia-pivots-coal-middle-east-conflict-chokes-lng-supply-2026-03-17/

Brent Crude has now dropped from $116 high to current $88, US Crude now below $84 on expectation that Trump is heading towards ending engagements in Iran

12:22

BREAKING

Qatar's state-owned energy company, QatarEnergy, says it has halted the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after Iranian attacks on some of its facilities.

It says the attacked facilities were Ras Laffan - an onshore gas processing base - and Mesaieed - another key site for Qatar's natural gas production.

The Gulf state is one of the world's top liquefied natural gas producers, alongside the US, Australia and Russia.

...and where BD gets most of its LNG from.

The 1,320 MW coal-fired Banshkhali Power Plant, operated by SS Power-1 Limited, stands on the brink of shutdown as it cannot unload coal from an anchored ship because of non-payment under the Letter of Credit . The company's CFO, Ebadat Hossain Bhuiyan, has repeatedly contacted the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) through letters and calls, but no resolution has emerged.

BPDB cites delays in receiving funds from the Finance Ministry as the reason for the holdup.

With only enough stored coal to generate electricity for about 10 more days, the plant faces forced closure if fresh supplies are not unloaded soon.

Another ship is en route to Bangladesh, with three more scheduled to arrive in the first week of March, but opening LCs will remain impossible without settling the dues.

The outstanding electricity bills have accumulated over roughly five months, surpassing Tk4,417 crore.

As the plant relies entirely on imported fuel, sustaining operations with such large arrears has become extremely difficult.

In its latest letter to BPDB, the company has urgently requested at least 150 million US dollars to ensure continuous supply, demanding payment by February 28 and referencing seven prior unanswered communications.

https://barta24.com/english/details/national-en/279970

Here's an interesting tidbit...S. Alam Group (Bangladesh) and SEPCO (China) are partners in developing the 1,320 MW Banskhali coal-fired power plant in Chattogram, a major BRI project. SEPCO China) is a subsidiary of POWERCHINA, specialising in power plant construction. I looked up SEPCO (will they be the builders of the Phulbari Power Stations) link below, for GCM being in bed and have an EPC with PowerChina is massive, they are involved in such huge projects they are not going to be spending time (and they are) on getting Phulbari approved and developed without a large element of certainty. Sepco are just one subsidiary of PowerChina !

https://en.sepco.net.cn

At close: Peel on bid at 8.3 SCAP on the Ask at 8.5 followed by PEEL at 8.6

Don't think we have seen this one before. You can change audio to English using setting button below the video.Have we seen this one before https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Barapukuria%20coal%20mine%20to%20phulbari%20GCM%20asset&mmscn=stvo&mid=EB023650A18AF3D09A90EB023650A18AF3D09A90&ajaxhist=0

I haven't heard anything about any recent Bara Economic Feasibility studies, nor can I find anything in Google or AI, however we do have this from GCM's annual report Page 2..

Progress and Strategic Developments

Throughout the reporting period, GCM maintained strong operational and technical readiness while continuing

its engagement with policymakers, stakeholders, and strategic partners. The Company completed a significant update to its Project Economic Model,

confirming the financial robustness of the Project and reinforcing its attractiveness under current market conditions. The updated analysis

demonstrates an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 20–30 percent, for the project equity reflecting improved capital efficiency and strong cash flow

potential once operations commence.

Not like you searcher, here it is again

Mahmud also expressed support for open-pit coal mining, saying domestic coal resources should be included in the future energy mix to improve energy security and reduce import dependence.

He said the country can no longer continue with business as usual in the energy sector

https://www.deshkalnews.com/news/18544

A reminder this was him s couple of weeks back…

Mahmud also expressed support for open-pit coal mining, saying domestic coal resources should be included in the future energy mix to improve energy security and reduce import dependence.

He said the country can no longer continue with business as usual in the energy sector

https://www.deshkalnews.com/news/18544