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Mr Phulbari
I cannot afford to make Investment DECISION base on illogical view BUT I take as many factor as I can - this is BEST we can do or better we do not even enter investing space.
For me one of biggest factor which i fluence Hasina before is view of local people which she want to respect - NOW we see Local people SUPPORT Phulbari development.
You see I have use LOGIC here and even when we say Hasina make bad decisions in past logic should make us still ask WHY she did this. Part of this we isolate and look at current.
Now we have understood this and see that situation change we can make INFORM investment decision base on ALL know factor.
*Add to this all other factur we discuss like Energy Minister statement, 2 way Govt dialogue, Petro China (with highest level Govt contact) development, FX critical situation & borrowing problem etc).
Now maybe you understand where CONFIDENCE come from and not just lazy Hope! 🦉
"...why we expect Phulbari go ahead in next few weeks!"
Your words, WiseOwl. But are they wise?
Those of us who understand that logic and Bangladesh do not always hang together will watch this space with interest.
HenrytheEighth .Mining equipment. The size of equipment needed for open cast mining means that it can never be electrically powered . Diesel or hydrogen powered engines are needed to propel the machine either through Torque converters or electric motors powered by the engine. Dumpers have a capacity of up to 500 tonnes per load and bucket size for excavators is up to 50 tonnes. (Ten gob fulls to fill a dumper). Engine size required is typically between 2,000 and 5,000 Hp. Electric power is only feasible for Baby equipment according to Lord Bamford (JCB).
SOLAR PARK Project is linked to Phulbari development also for those talking about Eco impact but header is about Hasina decision.
Will understand latest Info / Intel make this clear for those who still rely on Old Info. Keep up!
Professor Islam did have lot more support in past but if you look at his group development and key supporters in higher positions. will understand the support base is much weaker then before.
From base mass support level most of this was from LOCALS before so if we want to understand position NOW we must look at LATEST info!
"Feedback from GOVT AGENCIES I ducates the desire for the local people to be stakeholders and to be motivated to support projects ie offer employment, provide education and fairly compensate for land required and people displaces.
The Project's Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) COMPREHENSIVELY deals with the government's desires for the local people. The SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF THE LOCAL PEOPLE was captured in surveys covering families within and immediately adjacent to the Project Area" - RNS 29th Jan 2024.
Prof Islam's support base is now his OPPPSITION and takes away major obstacle for Hasina when she say she want to support local community.
Maybe understand now (with all LAT ST Intel) why Hasina look to give Phulbari go ahead with Community Suppport and coubtry ECONOMY CRITICAL!
No need to be self proclaim "Hasina Expert" to understand this basic points and why we expect Phulbari go ahead in next few weeks!
🦉
Very true horse one, but those kilns could be powered by renewables.Problem is, renewables are just not cheap enough yet.
But yes, fair one, one of their main exports is something that produces a shed load of pollution.
....good, I am glad you got it - the generator(s) is next door at Phulbari so the carbon footprint for transport / logistics will be minimal.
Add in a solar farm on site, electric dumpers & diggers, staff in well paid meaningful employment (not subsistence rice growing) and you start to see it all come together....
The problem on the horizon is her, Hasina. She got it wrong, but it was somebody else who made the mistake. Tucked up by the Indians - that was Nasrul at fault.... We still have a long way to go.
It will free up a lot of cash to develop a renewables strategy, everywhere needs base load, their best chance is the mine, the lower cost of energy will benefit the wider economy. They're either burning imported coal and broke and going more broke or they are pragmatic and have a pathway forward.
What is the main cause of pollution in Bangladesh?
Brick kilns, surface dust, and vehicle emissions are responsible for roughly 85% of the city's air pollution, while artificial sources are more distributed and actually contribute more. By 2020, the 4500 brick kilns around the nation are anticipated to grow by 50%
This is definitely a stumbling block.
Bangladesh was the worlds polluted country last year.
https://ibb.co/cwF8mLM
If they start agreeing to ever more coal mines, there's no doubt that the world climate change bodies will not be happy.
That said, the irony is that it would actually work out better for the environment, as there would be very little emissions owing to logistics, compared to importing coal from other countries.
The problem is that Professor Islam and his National Committee (un-elected) can punch above its weight and, in such a renta-crowd environment as Bangladesh, they can mobilise a lot of opposition. They would also tap into their green allies around the word. That is, and always has been, the challenge, and it is what has consistently weighed on Hasina's mind. They could stir up a hornets' nest of protest. GCM may be confident that they have everyone on board in those rice farms and in the main urban areas, but they thought that in 2005/6. It also true that the coal seam sits primarily under paddy field, but the number of people to be re-settled will quickly get exaggerated by the nay-sayers, as happened before. This is not to say the mine won't get the go-ahead, but Hasina has to be very confident of her ground before having a big hole dug in her backyard. Balanced discussion needs to take this into account.
The Scheme of Development includes all environmental considerations as developed by Asia Energy in April 2006.
https://www.gcmplc.com/phulbari-coal-project/overview
Why can't this board have normal discussions.
It's actually laughable.
that guys taking ****e then !!!
GCM has had all studies done including environmental & social impacts.
It is the only coal development that is ready to go ahead now
Any project in the UK will require an environmental study before it gets approval!! Will this project require something similar or has it all ready ticked all the boxes as far as the environment is concerned?? Searcher any ideas ???
Thanks Doze,
Much appreciated mate.
It is a complicated one.
If the green light is given, all those issues will naturally fall into place one would assume.
Things are heating up very nicely.
Regarding
mankini i think it was mentioned in the rns that the locals are on board now! it’s the usual environmentalist *******s that has already been addressed in the study.
Doze
I would recommend looking at Fulbari on Google maps, not a very big place really, honestly not sure where the actual coal/ mine will be situated but the vast majority of the area is farmland with a main st.
Jamess, I am assuming the figures for profit will derive from PC sales of coal. After calculation of production costs which are mainly extraction and management involving GCM and PC, the sales to power stations will have a profit element which will be split % tax % operational costs and % to licence holder and quite possibly % to local authorities put in charge of water pumps (as would be prudent for future management). Just my musings as I would like to see the final acceptable face of capitalism applied. A lot of negotiating to do post approval on a country level and technically complicated.
Wolfi, 6,688 hectares can be compared to this data " The Fens is an area of 400,000 hectares, stretching from Lincoln and Boston in the North, Cambridge to the South and Peterborough to the West. " " Data on the 2021 population of Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland taken from the 2021 Census5 show a total of 1,136,000 residents across Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland. " (733 ,900 hectares)
Acid mine drainage amelioration measures need to be watertight! When you look at the fens which have had water management since Roman times you would think it was manageable except we do not have monsoons to contend with or iron sulphides I suppose.
Population density must be greater in Bangladesh
That’s a very good point Mankini - no protestors as yet. That in itself bodes well.
All his negative comments regarding the project have all been fully addressed in feasibility studies. These type of people are never interested in facts.
Also, considering how close we are, have we heard of any more protests in Phulbari against the mine?
No protesters at the AGM for the first time.
Sounds like the author is a bit out of date with his views on public opinion also
One of the questions specifically asked at the AGM was about what inter-action had GCM had with the people of Phulbari to ensure that there was not the same uprising as in 2006, Gary spent a lot of time on this subject and went into a lot of detail about it, but in short he said that a massive amount of work had been done on the ground in recent years and that they have been in very detailed discussions with the people of Phulbari along with discussing about rehabilitation etc etc and that they were very confident that the people of Phulbari were now in favor of Phulbari being mined....
Its probably written all the time, but it did make me smile when i read at the bottom of the article....
"Views expressed in this article are the author's own."
Another scenario out of James's head.
Let us say that the government have agreed to go forth with the open pit mine.
How then do we think the profits will be split?
Given current stake holders are;
Do Power China own any GCM shares?
GCM. ?
Power China. ?
Bang Gov. ?
GCM would share their cut out acordingly, I assume
Gcm Stake holders ;
Polo resources 17.8 %
Dyani. 12 %
Infratech. 4.2
I know the SP would rise and everyone here would be long gone i.e. no one really cares who gets what.
But this is another interesting angle on the whole situation.
Mr James - only one "desperate" is you sir & demonstrate with your own post history (ones who reaf this BB regularly understand this clearly about you).
My reason for confidence is clear - just look at all RECENT articles from different sources that coming out of Bangladesh & even protestor understand Govt looking at this now when before they say no way.
Why?
This is where Economic situation need to be understood. I mention IMF weeks ago when someone here say they are "expert on Hasina" - I tell them maybe more useful to understand lending process at Govt level !
Now we see development with Petro China / Domestic Energy Suppliers and ask yourself very BASIC question - what make those BIG players so CONFIDENT?
In countries like Bangladesh they will have access to GOVT at very highest level - maybe think about this.
Buy or not no problem - many if us understand OPPPORTUNITY is BEFORE any official announcement AND with research base on multiple sources.
Maybe "joke" is one who try to play BB and argue against very strong case for investment yes?
Even funding situation is known for weeks and like I say just look at last finding round with HARD PRICE PUSH because of small impact on postal shares v Upside potential.
Many clever ones are keeping shares tight while the real "desperate" ones try to play BB with straw person arguments 😏
Be Wise 🦉