Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Thunder, you did muddle ebitda with ebit...which is an enormous deal
TBF, if you want to read my post history, you will see I was in this earlier in the year but saw the warning signs and got out without too much pain...and have since not rebought. I have set my position out transparently. If you chose not to listen or disagree I don't have any issues. If they breach covenant, what exactly do you think they would do? Either dilute you or flog assets for peanuts, that management presentation for the big turnaround was just blue sky thinking and mumbo jumbo at best. Net debt exceeds market cap, never a good situation.
I've not yet heard them use the word 'insolvency'.
FirstGroup used it in an RNS last year, but it was a huge exaggeration and they recovered. I don't (yet) see any risk of insolvency for FSJ, but I'm happy to hear any genuine counter arguments.
Maybe I'm an idiot! do your own research
Scaremongering. There's no risk of insolvency, at least not for at least a few years
Canetoad your completely right I'm all for opinions both positive and negative I like to read a balanced board.
To copy and paste 2 out 3 paragraphs and not include the paragraph that sits right in the middle is disingenuous to say the least especially the one that doesn't suit your narrative.
Better luck next time Thunder
"Its quite amusing you you forgot to include the following paragraph the 2nd paragraph"
Not surprising at all. He has an agenda. Look at his post history. It's a somewhat suspicious thing to do at best, downright dishonest at worst.
I've now filtered him, as I filter all individuals like that.
Its quite amusing you you forgot to include the following paragraph the 2nd paragraph of 3 which you chose to copy and paste. Seems strange why someone would do that ??
Some might call it slightly deceptive but I respect your view and you could well be right..
For a balanced perspective I have included below the paragraph you conveniently forgot to include.
"Revolving credit facilities totalling £130m have been refinanced in the period on a three year term, with options to extend by up to two years. In aggregate, the Group has £287.5m of committed facilities, of which £247.5m is now secured through to at least 2024."
Unfortunately the paragraph doesn't suit your narrative but as I mentioned earlier you are perfectly in your rights to have an opinion. I just think the CEO who bought 100k worth of shares after the trading update might not see the company as an insolvency risk as much as you do. I know who I'm more inclined to believe.
From my previous post:
''Underlying net borrowings at 30 June 2021 was £178.7m, showing a marginal increase of £3.7m compared to 31 December 2020 (£175.0m). On an IFRS16 basis, including the Group's operating lease liabilities, net debt has increased from £198.1m at 31 December 2020 to £211.0m at 30 June 2021.'
'At 30 June 2021, the Group had headroom against its committed revolving credit facilities of £117.0m (2020: £115.6m). The ratio of net debt (including bonds and guarantees) to Ebitda was 2.9 times (31 December 2020: 2.8 times; 30 June 2020: 2.5 times). The covenant requirement at 30 June 2021 was 3.75 times, which reduces to 3.5 times at 31 December 2021.'
I have looked at the 6 months results RNS from Sept now, they are in danger of breaching covenants here, hence why this will likely go a lot lower - the cash call is likely as others have said. They were on 2.9x Ebit at June, if things are getting worse, will they clear the 3.5 at year end? I believe they also need to refinance in next 12 months, so no way they will get financed at this debt ratio. Net debt at end of June was close to current market cap and margin is deteriorating further.'
You have been warned, this is in freefall because of the insolvency risk
No, the part when they breach covenant Cookie
Thunder at least do a little bit of research before commenting . You ask the question how they going to re-finance and then in the same comment ask when is the facility up for renewal ???
The renewal is at the earliest 2024 so what refinance are you talking about the one they completed 6 months ago !!
I'm taking a small position here and will continue to add at these prices after going through the director buys the CEO recently buying in at 400+ and has bought when the share price was 20+ lets see where it goes from here.
decent post
"unproven" management team (being kind), plus eyewatering debt to market cap (and worsening quickly) ==>serious refinancing risk
There is a major problem here, just look at the share price graph since the pandemic started. Margin deterioration, unproven management team, significant debt levels, bad debts - can't see them turning this around. With the market cap this low, an equity raise is off the table, so how are they going to refinance it - when is the facility up for renewal?
You are spot on. We are waiting until it settles then move in as it may be retreating more yet. No point in rushing in.
@2phevs: I agree with you. I'll be adding more at some stage, though I tend to wait until I see improved fundamentals. @Jolly is a clown - he's just a troll who's trying to wind people up. If he actually gave some genuine reasons, I'd be happy to listren to him, but I've just decided to filter him as he offers zero value. You'll get the idea by loking at his posting history.
hopefully get rid of the fund managers that are feeling the heat of their result driven bosses
never had a crystal ball but averaging down has nearly always made me buy heavier at the bottom if it hits 3 I'm doubling up a bit like tgp this one my strategy made me some decent money there recently GLA (that are actually Jolly well invested here)