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Yes some huge buys expect a TR1 shortly.
Hi Thunder I had an email from investor relations advising there won’t be a trading update for the 3rd quarter.
Some big buys late today - some good news on its way?
I expect a trading update in November sometime.
Schlumberger and Halliburton both announced very strong results this week and market demand in oil and gas seems good, so I have faith that Offshore and Marine Support divisions will be ok in H2. Tankships also seems to be back up and running fine and don't seen any market issues for that one in H2.
My current concern is Specialist Technical - still no announcement of any major new contracts, and it turned a loss in H1, that is dragging on overall group profitability - as specialist technical has historically been higher margin - need some good news on a defence or nuclear contract win. That is the key in the immediate term for me.
Share price continues to grind lower, I think there is a seller on the books. Any disposal news between now and Xmas could put a rocket up this if it alleviates the debt concern.
Margin restoration and debt reduction are the key, I have some faith, but its still not out of the woods.
I wonder if there will be a trading update in the next few days.
This day last year they provided one, I'm more and more confident on this share with the recent tie up with I Energy in Saudi as well on the Fendercare side of the business.
https://www.james-fisher.com/news-and-insights/news/james-fisher-strengthens-middle-east-presence-thanks-to-fendercare-partnership-with-i-energy
Looks like the huge Total Mozambique LNG project is going to restart in early 2023, I think James Fisher are involved in this, so could be a very promising sign if it does go ahead:
https://www.energyintel.com/00000183-adc2-d96f-a1f7-effad60e0000
@Thunder2040: Thank you for your extensive reply - really much appreciated on my side. I have to say that I have done only little research but I often find that if I get the basics right (company at a low valuation but operating in an increasing/growing market) that my gut instinct often gets it right.
Your detailed write up below actually makes an intellectual case so much appreciated by me.
Hi Henry
I did endless research into this company when it initially dropped during covid and had bought at what I thought was the bottom then, it was then a far riskier proposition because revenue was tanking and the debt was larger - management wrote down assets, and the CEO did not inspire me, so I actually sold out but have been watching.
A few key things have now turned a bit more positive here in my humble opinion, despite the still subdued margins:
1) They managed to dispose of one the dive vessels and pay down debt with the proceeds - the other one they kept, Spearfish, is now fully charter for 2022 - this was dragging on them a lot last year as neither vessel was utilised. If they can get debt down to 2x ebitda that would be a game changer.
2) Tankships, the reliable cashcow is now getting back up to full steam now that lockdowns have ended, infact, with current energy issues, demand for tankers will likely be very robust and this was echoed in the H1 results I think - this provides a bit of an anchor in terms of profit to support the other divisions as they come back online.
3) A lot of the deferred projects will be coming back online now that covid has receded - although they seriously need to sort of Specialist Technical - no sure what is going on there. Marine Support will come good I feel in H2, especially if they can establish some work on LNG ship to ship to get Fendercare firing, as they were talking about on the H1 results call - demand for that must be high atm given everyone is screaming for LNG! I just sense that the tide is just turning a little (pardon the pun). They are saying H2 will be stronger and this time I see merit to this outlook.
4) The new CEO has a very strong CV in my opinion, time will tell, but I feel he is more technically minded than the previous one, I also like the FD, think he spoke well on the H1 call and knows the business - this has given me new hope that they are the ones to sort things out at JF with correct actions to restore the healthy margin they used to have. The track record of growth pre 2020 is very good, nothing changed longterm
5) The medium term/long term market outlook has further strengthened - offshore oil and gas, wind and even nuclear (energy and defense) are all prime for huge sovereign investment globally. This company has highly specialised engineering capability that will be utilised, of that I am certain - they need to bid on work that restores the margin and be confident in their expertise commanding a premium price. One thing that has not changed is the 'WIDE ECONOMIC MOAT' - this is the phrase I really must say is the reason I am in this share. Huge growth potential, and very strong defensive properties = big winner.
Obviously the economy is going to face some real headwinds in the near term, but I am confident enough to buy now and avoid missing the boat (apologies for the puns) as I feel they will be insulated to a large extent and feel down here at
@Thunder and Skerries: I had a second bite at 318p. The thing that I like is that James Fisher offers specialist services in areas that will see growth in the medium term. Any buy in the low 300s will pay out - in my personal opinion.
Thunder - an excellent summary with which I agree entirely. Recent institutional investors, Odyssean and Aberforth Partners add more weight to the argument.
I have been out of James Fisher for a significant number of months, primarily as I had very little faith in the capabilities of the now departed CEO and team. The new CEO seems to have far more relevant experience in offshore energy so I am willing to again place my faith in the ability to turn this around and note the bullishness is the tone of the last update with regards to H2.
Strategic reasons for the investment have also strengthened recently, with all James Fisher's key markets now looking to be in heavy demand for at least the next decade, given the pressing need to invest in all manner of energy infrastructure and defence, with much of this investment also likely to come from governments, who could provide lucrative and secure long term contract income. The Abu Dhabi’s NMDC Group strategic agreement is exactly the type of tie up this company needs.
I also note recent interim results, and in particular, was satisfied that the balance sheet, although highly geared, can withstand near term headwinds and thus the risk of a placing seems less pressing than it did previously. Also expect a material disposal in H2 to further delever.
Although the deep value play nature of this does come with a reasonable level of risk, the defensive nature of the business gave me the confidence to re-enter at a shade of 300p. I do believe this could double or triple within 2-3 years and provide a robust anchor investment for the portfolio for a good while, which is previously had for many other investors I have noted through my many hours of research.
Not invested here, yet but keeping a watchful eye.
Looks as if H2 will be better but worried that debt is quite close to the covenant limit of 3.5x EBITDA. From the charts, the SP has also dropped below the 50 day moving average so seems a bit risky to invest now with the macro backdrop looking so gloomy.
Not reinstating the divi looks the right move but overall feel the business looks fairly solid and hope to get in once markets and the SP are on a more solid upward trend. If the SP was valued by holders at c£10, something similar should be achievable in the medium term.
This is true but the funding to companies like JFN should start very soon and continue for a decade at least IMO.
Probably, but it takes circa 5 years to build each one. They'd need to start 3 or 4 right away.
It's materialising now at last: Boris 'goes nuclear' as he prepares to sign off on first of EIGHT new atomic reactors: PM to announce part-takeover of £20bn Sizewell C and plan to build one power station EVERY year until 2030 to solve energy crisis.
I do wonder most days why I got into this share...... just when you see light darkness follows
NMDC of Abu Dhabi ......... or of India ?
seems to have been a catalyst to the price recovery. for those who added near the 250/260 range... well played.
Whether taken out or recovery over years, few can argue that the trajectory now is up.
Will be like AGK, a bid when least expected, sitting back and waiting to see how it handles the dizzy heights of £4.
Good luck to LTH
Long way to go...buy and forget..
And the year before that £20! Although Nuclear Fusion is some way off but game changing, Nuclear Fission is IMO the only way out of the upcoming energy crisis. Unfortunately, renewables won't suffice for at least another two decades. Then factor in that most cars/ transport will be electric only means even more Nuclear Power Stations and Nuclear Mechanical Handling will be required.
If this is the start of a recovery, there is still a long way to go - a year ago this was trading at £10 !
I have two lots of these bought in July. Hope they have turned the corner now for a long term hold
This is really starting to tick up now is something happening in the background ?
Institutions loading up here follow the money. https://www.oitplc.com/about-us/investment-approach/
Good timing Cookie
Glad to (finally) see some positive movement here!