Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I enjoy his podcasts, but he has been saying the same thing for years.
I have a heavy weighting in my p/f of PM stocks. Have done for several years. Side pot trading a few of the names has helped me to keep a degree of sanity to date!
Had I just bought and held pretty much all of them, I would be underwater in every single one I think.
At the time of print, this only applies to FRES now, but I am continuing to work on lowering my average here, while trying to de-risk with slices etc, when I can.
Naturally I would love to see silver have a good run, to at least test the ATH, as every other commodity has in the past 40 years except silver, but if it happens, it happens. Not putting the house on it.
On the subject of PF: if you have not already seen his speech to the mortgage bankers in 2006 I think it was, well worth checking it out on youtube. GLA.
I think the market is pricing in the fact that Inflation in Mexico will take longer to fall back to 3% due to the Central Bank projections ....sticky inflation in services and wages just like elsewhere
the purchasing power of those Dollars changed into Pesos is a HUGE headwind given the % change over say 15 months so the exploration costs this year of $190m for example gets you somewhat less achieved for that money than a year ago
must be tough on Mexican families getting remittances from family members sending money back home from the US
FOMO, I bought some more just below 450. My 442 limit did not trigger. That still confuses me. So I guess my average now is about 445
I watched Peter Schiff yesterday podcasting and he was recommending buy gold/silver and gold/silver stocks, don't wait for pullbacks, buy and hold and you'll be rewarded in the PM supercyle like you've never been rewarded before. I sold all of my FRES (mean entry 452ish) and have bought back 20% at 441 today. That's a huge advantage. If he's right about the PM supercyle and I think others have suggested Silver/Gold will break out and head to the moon, then FRES appears to be undervalued. It appears to be a trade with somwhat limited downside (nothing is safe and no-one can see into the future and I believe a significant holder is selling and I don't know why).
peter was drunk and he admits it on the podcast and you can clearly see it, but he's not a fool. For anyone interested, here it is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkfBPYLuGQg
Exactly EQ, it's absolutely scarey how powerful human nature is.
What's odd here for me, is that I bought below 442 and yet my limit buy at 442 didn't trigger. How is that possible? I'll not leave my screens until I've got a sensible position here
People are wired to look for reasons and causes. If the share price dropped, it must be because of this or that. Most likely it was forced selling in the illiquid market. Once selling is finished and absorbed, the share price will mean-revert back to the fundamentals. With the current market cap, only silver reserves and resources are priced at around $1.6/Oz. If silver goes up, this share will get ballistic.
Well, maybe I'm wrong fog, but the chart is saying it's being dumped. I've just bought at 441.6 or thereabouts, plus I think I had a limit at around 442 which must have triggered. I'll continue to accumulate as I've done up to now and I'll drop it the moment the profit is good enough. For me it's working like a dream to be honest. The drop today might well be finished so I'm looking forward to evidence that the buyers are getting the upper hand. To now my buys are speculative. From now, I'm looking to jump on the back of a whale
The largest shareholder ex Peñoles only has 8.7m shares, so perhaps it's more than one institution selling because this has gone on for months. Average daily volume is 1.3m but we've had several days recently of 2m plus.
I think a major SH is selling fog, that's been guiding my decision making. Yesterday my average entry was around 452, today I'm starting from scratch and hoping for 442!!
I don't know why the selling is happening, but it is. The divergences you're talking about can only go so far (as long as there is no 'accounting issue').
If you chart USD/MXN versus FRES there is a relationship, but it's only part of the story...
1-2% since December 2023 doesn't begin to explain the collapse from 600p to 450p. Ditto, c10% peso strengthening YoY wouldn't halve EBIT and the share price...
Hi Poker where do you think the peso need to be for this to move up and have a decent capex ? I was reading that some think peso will weaken during the U# election and the Mexican elections.
The Capex was higher earlier as they were acquiring own equipment to replace contractor suppliers. The process of doing all that is probably moving to just sustainable capex as that process gets fully completed.
March has been terrible for the FX .... dropped firmly below 17 peso/Dollar and only just moved off the low
no wonder they have cut the CAPEX
The question is ..how much have they hedged , and how many Dollars have they moved into Peso ahead of the strength of the Super Peso? ... doesn't sound like the CFO did a lot and didnt expect the super strengthening
457 close USA side. ( pound drops in value) USD gains a little against mx peso.
453.5p taking 1.27 for USA/pound pairing.
Https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/announcements-of-monetary-policy-decisions/%7B37E09D62-344B-CB2E-178A-3DFD89B45FAB%7D.pdf
Little impact on currency pairing thus far.
I thought the same. The fact that Zuckerber, Bezos et all have been dumping billions in stock is probably a sign to keep an eye on. Hasn't changed much on US markets mind.
" investors are pushing the world’s most expensive currency to ever more dizzying heights, shrugging off the risks from interest-rate cuts, divisive elections and analyst warnings."
sounds like they are trying to draw in the last of the buyers more like , telling them there are further gains to be made ...whilst some traders quietly start to sell/close contracts
Can't help wondering whether we're off back to 440/442 or below. Dropped heavily into close.
I'm a hold for now. Not going to top up given the bizarre strength of the Mexican Peso as outlined here.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/usd-mxn-mexican-peso-so-strong-investors-fear-betting-against-it
Zinc supply tightening ....prices need to rise again after 2023 fall
https://www.mining.com/web/glencore-halts-major-zinc-lead-mine-in-australia-after-heavy-rainfall/
Who knows what the true value range of silver is, as the PM market it highly controlled and manipulated.
One example Reuters
https://www.reuters.com › article
JPMorgan to pay $920 million for manipulating precious ...
Would have been better holding hoc rather than fres. Hoc still up 7% hoc back down to 4%
So has Milk bread eggs and lots of other products lol fres is a disaster of a share. I hope this tries to at least break through 500 by next week..you can see soon as the USA market opened the cult smashed it back down.
I have been expecting a commodities super cycle (and a new high in silver) for years now.
In 30 years time, I will likely hear the voice of my grandchild asking me if the silver super cycle is about to start. 'Any day now, son' :)