Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Mexico’s Annual Inflation Rate Ticks Up, Backing Cautious Banxico Stance on Rates
Annual inflation hit 4.48% in mid-March, core prints at 4.69%
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-22/mexico-inflation-rate-ticks-up-backing-cautious-banxico-stance
Https://www.vaneck.com.au/blog/gold/the-2024-gold-miners-rush/
@dogger69 : Willy Wonker : filtered
Allowing for inflation, all time high gold price would be over $2,500.
There is a huge upside here.
Silver/gold ratio currently at 87
Gold leads the way. Near all time high. Big disconnect with silver price, and gold miners and PM miners in general. Either gold price falls or silver and miners go up. Situation can't stay this way forever.
Fresnillo closed in USA at the equivalent price of 465p UK.
The ME conflict may not spread until after the US election.
I have stopped listening to anyone who predicts silver will take off and silver squeeze. The cult will slam it back down. Won't happen unless 3rd world war breaks out or the middle East war spreads
Needs some special event I think to get silver to hold more consistently over $25, it normally resists
Silver Squeeze: The Movie (Part 486)
Created by: J.P. Morgan
Directed by: Andrew Maguire
Produced by: Keith Neumeyer
Starring: Bonker, Max and Reddit Wall Street Silver
Rated "R" for Repetitive
I believe the USDMXN rate has a secondary impact on Fres profitability compared to, say, the silver price (+$2 to silver AISC or less?), and it will mean-revert anyway. The JPY/MXN carry trade started in 2020 will collapse spectacularly at some point, as all carry trades did in the past. BOJ already raised its rate, and BOM already cut. That is not enough to break the inertia and start the repatriation of money just yet. However, the carry trade becomes more fragile as the new direction is set. Any exogenous shock could blow it now.
"Quarterly candles can give VERY POWERFUL signals.
5 trading days left for #SILVER to regain a CONVINCING breakout posture..."
https://twitter.com/badcharts1/status/1771137193903362523
Different view on things ....
"In our opinion, the 4-1 vote significantly reduces the probability of a rate pause in May," said analyst Luis Adrian Muniz at Vector Analisis.
"In this sense, continuous cuts seem most likely, at least during the next two quarters."
but
Banxico said that headline inflation is still forecast to converge to its target of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point, in the second quarter of 2025. Its forecast for year-end headline inflation was revised upwards to 3.6%, from 3.5% previously.
Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Ramos in a note to clients that Banxico's "inflation forecasts for end-2024 are still too optimistic."
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-mexico-cuts-key-interest-rate-25-basis-points-11-2024-03-21/
Jonathan Heath, a member of the ( Mexico)central bank’s board, cautioned the market should not necessarily expect another cut in May.
“We see this is a kind of fine tuning . . . simply so monetary policy doesn’t become too restrictive,” Heath told the Financial Times after the decision on Thursday.
“If we make some cuts before the end of the year, they wont necessarily be continuous cuts, we will remain very prudent.”
https://www.ft.com/content/48f63355-756c-47ab-984e-bac8337397a6
Silver has too many derivative contracts and short players and they hold the price down ... they are always looking to be more "in the money"
The derivatives can be held open for months on end and they will close them when some data point they watch meets their numbers..
Maybe if the FED reduced the 2yr Treasury yield or when this big period of US borrowing peaks in April/May ...who knows
Apologies if this has been posted before. It's a link to a video of people in China buying gold on Feb 14th (which, of course, is Valentine's Day and the fith day of the Luna New Year, so a 'special' day to buy gold). However, it does demonstrate the high level of demand for gold in China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qql-SXqVaiI
They will let it go once 'they' have finished loading up, IMO.
Hopefully soon, but I have said that before! :) GLA.
COMEX could be about to crack like it did in March 2020 with both Gold and Silver going No Offer for a good while because there's 200x more paper than there is actual metal.
It sounds exciting Bonker, but I have no idea how to interpret that? Any chance of an explanation of it's significance?
Guys - HSBC have quit COMEX and taken their physical Silver with them - it's now in London.
Like Musk buying a Silver mine for Tesla wasn't enough - get ready ...
https://x.com/bonker_99/status/1771127172469584267?s=20
For those interested in exposure to precious metal stocks read this article about B2 Gold (BTG on New York, BTO on Toronto) : https://seekingalpha.com/article/4678486-b2gold-stock-a-sector-leader-on-the-sale-rack
And compare the valuation metrics such as P/E, EV/Ebitda, FCF-yield to those of FRES. Just saying.
Agreed LW, but I think Crypto is really a red herring. Fiat currencies are already digital. Then it comes down to regulation/traceability etc and big CORPs/sates are on the case. I agree with him also on Crypto and don't touch it. Maybe I'm just a luddite and need to work around ideas that involve producing something, owning something, being able to build things etc.
I'm very interested by Peter, but he doesn't seem to have moved his stance over the years. That could mean that it shouldn't be moved and he has courage in his convictions, or it could mean that he's just 'stuck'. Personally I find I'm in tune with him and like him and his views.
Fresnillo drop was all about delivering a low level of profit and dividend. Fresnillo has up and down cycles. The up cycles have a level of profit and dividend plus 4 times greater at a nadir point. 2023 performance was worse than 2019. 2024 is a recovery year and i believe we shall see an SP plus ÂŁ2 from here. It may take months and a couple of good quarter reports showing AISCs getting lower from 2023 levels.
He is not humble, I think it is fair to say, and also does not take criticism well either, but that does not concern me.
He has got a lot of calls right. He is very intelligent (if clearly stubborn, eg crypto) and IMO brings a lot of education and ideas to the table. And does not lack the courage of his convictions, which is a breath of fresh air, generally.
I happen to agree with him on crypto. But fundamentally because I do not think the global establishment are going to tolerate a parallel medium of exchange, if one ever gets too powerful.
Not least with their CBDC plans. Now that is something that should worry all critical thinkers. Hey ho. GLA.
Thanks LW, I try to look it out. He looks to be drunk often to be honest and also somewhat bitter about his views on PM's vs Crypto and a bit like a stuck record (in an interesting way) on Polaroid and other tech stochs of the period.