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JPMorgan raises Fresnillo to 'overweight' (neutral) - price target 750 (500) pence
Production report on 24th April.
Https://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/World-Silver-Survey-2024.pdf
"Fourth, given the supply-demand fundamentals, I believe that the silver price has a strong base and over time will be higher,
probably significantly higher." Chairs statement.
Fres still No.1 producer in the world.
Https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-industrial-demand-rose-11-percent-to-post-a-new-record-in-2023/
Easier to read and digest.
From the Silver Institute report:
"Overall, silver demand exceeded silver supply in 2023 for the third consecutive year, resulting in a structural market deficit of 184.3 Moz."
Can someone explain to a thicky how this is possible. In A level economics I was taught demand always equals supply (as in demand is what is actually bought rather than some fantasy notion of what I wish I had)
@Saigonsally
There is supply and demand.
But in the metals market, there is also production & Inventory
Inventory is also broken down further into the inventory that the miners have to supply to market and inventory held by the market.
When inventory levels are running in continual net deficeit YoY eventually they reach the stage where demand is unable to be met from inventory held by the market and there will be a supply shortage and prices will rise.
For example....
in a major supply shortage, metal prices would have to continue to keep on rising until sufficient deposits that were once uneconomical to mine at the prevailing spot price eventually become economical to mine at whatever that price may be to bring these into production.
In the commodity space the price swings can be dramtic as we have seen recently with Uranium (400%+ rise in spot prices) where it became obvious that the price was going to have to rise considerably for miners to continue to make a profit and meet both present and future demand expectations.
Thank you PP.
SS
Https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-will-yen-carry-trade-end
Eventually I see much more than 750p here, but that topping tail (especially for silver) looks like it is playing out now, so not buying PM miners at the time of print.
Not selling any either, because I have no need to - but fully expecting some paper loss increases in this one for now.
A period of consolidation for metals definitely looks on the cards now but the average silver equivalent price is all that matters... Higher for longer is also definitely on the cards.
YTD average silver price $24 or have a billion EBITDA on an assumed equivalent cost of $19 an ounce. FRES has started a cash build cycle
*half a billion
Damn auto correct
Quote below from saigonsally post. Just to say Portfolio, great post. It helped me to better understand it also. Thanks for the question saigonsally. I didn't even know I needed to know the answer
"Overall, silver demand exceeded silver supply in 2023 for the third consecutive year, resulting in a structural market deficit of 184.3 Moz."
Can someone explain to a thicky how this is possible.
"Overall, silver demand exceeded silver supply in 2023 for the third consecutive year, resulting in a structural market deficit of 184.3 Moz."
Can someone explain to a thicky how this is possible.
It's possible because the silver price is too low, and this low price does not provide enough incentive for miners to invest in producing more silver. The price of silver is low because it is determined by 'paper futures trading' and not by the fundamentals of supply and demand.
This is unusually strong after average results so its looking good for £7 soon. We usually get a 10% drop.
PM prices are rigged, the evidence is there.
Because silver is now an industrial metal now ???
Jmax, show me a market that does work how it supposed to, I’ve yet to find one
According to Michael Oliver, the silver rockets will take off in April - and last October his forecast for the gold price is close to coming true. At the time of his forecast gold was at about $1,950. He said it would make a $600 jump, so if gold gets to $2,550, his forecast was correct..
"Michael Oliver – The Mania In The Silver Market Is Directly In Front Of Us" - see his reasoning.
https://kingworldnews.com/michael-oliver-the-mania-in-the-silver-market-is-directly-in-front-of-us/