The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Must read all, Jerome Powell speaking at 12pm EST.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historic-repo-market-insanity-10y-treasury-trades-4-ahead-monster-short-squeeze
If JPow doesn't signal the Fed is willing to implement significant yield curve control then unfortunately gold is going to crash through 1,700. It's defended that key support level several times in the last week (even just 10 minutes ago) but it really is squeaky bum time later.
perma if JP doesn't the whole market will crash. This is now more than just manipulating PMs. PMs will drop as the herd runs to liquidate their holdings but then after a few months it will skyrocket back up amongst the disaster and smoke.
As I said in my post today, the whole of corporate America and American consumers are so hopelessly dependent on debt that the Fed needs to keep rates artificially low so I expect the announcement to be significant yield curve control. This is of course good for gold but I am going to hold off anymore physical purchases until it's confirmed. Who knows, markets might have a tantrum if they don't hear the right things from JPow and then gold sinks below 1,700, and from there it could be a very long way down.
I agree PB better to take a 5% loss upwards and know rather than take a 20% and risk a surprise. We will see, we won't know till 5pm UK time.
I know very little about charts, but looking at someone who supposedly know the 61.8% retracement is at 1697, so as Gold passed already the key support at 1760 and another support at 1717 the key support to watch is now 1697. So I suspect that Gold might "hopefully" for a very short term go below 1700.
DK, thanks for that. I didn't know there was a disruption in the repo market. Last time they had to step in and act. I remember taper tantrum well . They wanted to scale QE down and market had a wobble and liquidity dried up. They had to act. They started printing money and this is on a one way ticket to hell.....
Ultimately, real assets are the ones to hold. Commodity miners, precious metals (silver is money, always has been.), bitcoin, even properties if interest rates don't go too high. I hold all those and I have had a think about bitcoins recently. I think, bitcoin as good as it is, will most likely be superceded (due to cost of network) in the future when technology moves on. Which comes back to gold. Compared to gold (and silver), bitcoin will probably turn out to be a flash in the pan.
In many languages, the term for money is 'silver'. It has always been money until the last century.
DK, thanks for that. I didn't know there was a disruption in the repo market. Last time they had to step in and act. I remember taper tantrum well . They wanted to scale QE down and market had a wobble and liquidity dried up. They had to act. They started printing money and this is on a one way ticket to hell.....
Ultimately, real assets are the ones to hold. Commodity miners, precious metals (silver is money, always has been.), bitcoin, even properties if interest rates don't go too high. I hold all those and I have had a think about bitcoins recently. I think, bitcoin as good as it is, will most likely be superceded (due to cost of network) in the future when technology moves on. Which comes back to gold. Compared to gold (and silver), bitcoin will probably turn out to be a flash in the pan.
In many languages, the term for money is 'silver'. It has always been money until the last century.
Is anyone here stacking silver as well? Physical premiums are insane at the moment plus there's VAT if you take delivery. I'm just continuing to stick with gold for now...
I would love to stack silver. The VAT has put me off. Know of any countries in europe that has no vat? Be great to get my hands on a few 1000oz bars. Pass it to the kids some day.
I wish UK would remove VAT on silver bars. If they do, there would be a flood....
Let someone stack it for you.
https://twitter.com/Sprott
Promised myself I wouldn't buy Fres again, just did though. Been a good earner over many years.
I've bought PSLV for a while (never touched JPM SLV scam) but there really is no substitute for holding physical. As they say, if you don't hold it then you don't own it...
i topped up my holding at 910 yesterday, having bought in at 560, 600 back last year. Have got more dry powder if it drops to 800 range
You were in that low and you didn't sell at >1300? My initial entry prices were a bit higher than yours (up to 650/700) but I completely exited around 1350. Then I went back in at 1100 and I've been underwater ever since haha.
Good website, if you haven't already seen.
https://www.silverinstitute.org/
Hi Perma.bear, yes unfortunately, doh. Thats the problem when you get your gains so soon. FRES (580) & HOC (98) were leading my portfolio for a time (went up to 1400 and 330 respectively). Now, these two have come down and the likes of BP, RDSB, CCL, RR, ESC, AML, FEVR, MTRO, CINE, LLOY, BARC, HSBA, TLW have gone up a fair bit. Im just a long term buy and hold value investor.
I hold 59 stocks in all, 21 have gone down an average of 24%, 38 went up an average of 46%. I'm now in a good position to top up further especially with Stocks ISA allowance available in April. I have no where better to put the money so I allocate my cash and leave it.
Powell have already said he will tolerate inflation and not raise rates. It is the bond yield that is the issue. Bond investors are demanding higher rates for putting money in because they expect inflation. Inflation>bond yields=good for gold but right now it is the other way around. High yields sucks liquidity and money from other assets which is bad for recovery, so to bring it down, Feds will have no choice but to buy the bonds to keep it down or at least say they will. it is a case of who will blink first. Japan has been doing it for yonks and EU is at it too. Only months away from reopening and real inflation setting in.....diesel at the pump has gone from 119 to 127 in the last few months.....
Not good if you are a pensioner relying on bonds to pay your retirement....
the USA is already pumping cash into the economy at an unparrelled rate. There have pumped in like 8T over the last 12 months and thats like double their tax take. The dollar looks like its started a 8 year decline, and if they pump too much too soon, they risk trashing the dollar in an alarming time frame. They are already going to get massive inflation in the US which will be politically dangerous. So looks like the animal spirits are pairing back behind the scenes. Currency cant devalue at a massive rate else it will suddenly crash and everything breaks.
Hi carvegyber, no probs my pleasure. That is a major issue in the repo market. I don't know if you have seen this link ? Danielle DiMartino who is sharpe as a knife said their was a liquidy issue in the market which sent my wheels in my brain spinning at full capacity last week. This just confirms what she was talking about. Just goes to show on a normal day trading in the market or PMs, you don't need to think about so much of the plumbing in the market but when the situation is like this you have to look at so many factors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zH8Tg9nCzhc
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly surged above 1.6% on Thursday. Until the Federal Reserve declares an intervention to bring down the long-end of the curve, equities markets could see continued "nervousness" said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence.
Gold has literally been teetering on 1696 since JPow spoke, it's agonising to watch!
PB. Looks like no reprieve.....
To quote South Park: "aaand it's gone". Key support for gold at circa 1696 has been breached, time to do some more stacking...
Powel is not prepared to intervene and the bond yield curve started to march up again
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
who is going to win ?
What's everyone's view on how it will go from here considering Powell didn't make any good noises? Dollar is very strong now but gold and especially silver seems to be holding up relatively strongly considering.
some interesting views are expressed in this article a few days old
https://kingworldnews.com/sprott-if-you-are-worried-about-the-action-in-silver-gold-just-read-this/