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when you buy shares in a company and that company makes a profit year on year then in theory the share price goes up.fogl have at the moment not done this, hence this is why their share price is where it is.in years gone by companys with no profit and assets were given crazy valuations like in the dot com boom and some of the massive share values some of these oil exploration companys were valued at even though they had no proven oil finds.now in todays more realistic climate even proven oil in the ground is not worth what it once was in respects of a company like fogl's share price.the market now wants to see proven profit before its then reflected in a companys share price.sealion is a pipe dream at todays oil prices.what people have got to remember is fogl are the tail of the dog and we will be wagged by the dog which in our case will be noble and pmo who inturn themselves will be told what to do by a bigger dog if they are interested in our oil finds.the shareholders will then be fed whats left on the bone when this has happened
I'm clearly too slow in writing a post.
Callerone I agree with most of your post. I would like to point out though that they do have confirmed oil In the form of their share of Sealion. FOGL stated there share of material resources in pl004b to be 102mb. This doesn't change much. However I see so many posters say that they don't have any confirmed oil. I think a lot of people seem to forget about FOGL's share of Sealion.
Hmmm... You are clearly someone who finds it difficult to admit to a factual mistake, so I won't waste your or my time with further debate.
it might as well be a myth then phil as its not factered into current share price of fogl and the last time i looked pmo were over 2 billion in debt so not sure where the cash is going to come from to bring sealion into production in todays low oil price climate
"...the facts are the way things stand fogl are a company with no concrete oil finds", I suppose the share of sealion from the desire deal is a myth then ?
babyroo you have not got a clue your the one talking rubbish.the facts are the way things stand fogl are a company with no concrete oil finds until cpr's become public knowledge.even when the cpr's eventually come to light fogl will then have to decide if they want to go into production to produce the oil, which is a total non starter as they would never have the funds to do that.that would then leave them with one other option and that is to sell their share, which will also result in further problems due to the fact that fogl are not sole owners of any finds so any sale would have to tie in with fogl's other current partners which is easier said then done.also add on the fact the current oil price climate where in my honest opinion no other company will be paying a premium for oil in the ground especially when you consider the fact the falklands is a high cost area to produce from. for your information i am invested here but unlike a few others here i do not live in a dream world where i think this oil slump will all be turned around in the next 6 months and everything will be rosy in the garden.also one thing i have learned from investing in aim shares is never to jump in too quick and invest, as the share prices of aim companys can fluctuate up and down rapidly due too poor market trading size, because of this there are always plenty of chances to buy into a aim company if you bide your time. anyone buying in now at 12p are getting a fair price and in my opinion and they have a very good chance of at least making 80% return on their money if the next two cpr's come back good.i remember reading once that 75% of aim companys never make a profit so folk should bare this in mind when investing in aim.we should also bare in mind that if fogl are not going to produce oil from their finds then at what value will current share holders get on their investment.by this i mean would fogl return any of the profit to their shareholders if they managed to sell their share of the oil.there is a lot of rampers on this bb and a lot of folk will beleave some of this rubbish that is wrote and invest their hard earned cash on this so called advice.i like to write a balanced view which gives a person the chance to weigh up the pro's and con's of a company.i have always said fogl will come good eventually, it just wont be as quick as people think.the same rampers on here that were claiming fogl would be £1 soon are probally the same people who's backsides have gone and sold their shares on the cheap at 12p due to thursday news.i like to invest in a company and not gamble
Noblesse oblige: noun 1. (often ironic) the supposed obligation of nobility to be honourable and generous
Totally agree babyroo... The problem is until they release data in regards to the two discoveries they can't be priced in. Isobel and zeb will bring us back to fair value... 40p + However this is going to happen until details are released. Which could be another 3-6 months. Hopefully by then the price oil will be better than currently so this hopefully will play its part. Unfortunately its a waiting game now.
Callerone Fair value ? I dont think you are in here otherwise you wouldn't be speaking this sh*t. 2 larger than expected strikes and a non duster out of 3 drills, 12.75p does not represent fair value in this situation. No rise on successes, 40% drop on what many people "knew" would be a let down before it happened !! Fair value my arse.
13p is fair value considering where we are due to lack of info regarding cpr's.eegbvi hit the nail on the head when he said fogl are holding cpr's back due to the fact that they will need to release some good news to help with future fund raising fogl will need.this will all happen after the next drill when it will be clearer what we have and how much will need to be raised.as with any aim company you can be as sure as night follow days that at some point the money runs out and the cash call comes.trouble for fogl is that the share price needs to be a fair bit higher for any future fund raising to work.i would say share price has at least got to be 40p for this to happen.i rekon all the future cpr's will probally be released in one hit followed by a fund raising rns.
Ha ha, that's got to be a Que for a tune, https://youtu.be/e2GecVOCxSM BW
Here are couple of more interesting articles : Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.html US big oil tells Opec 'anything you can do we can better', http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11650577/US-big-oil-tells-Opec-anything-you-can-do-we-can-better.html BW
how does everyone value it now at 13p?... is it fair value - cheap or overpriced? how many weeks to go to re-drill of Isobel, and what could we anticipate the share price could be by then? could a target price of 19p be considered reachable by then? .......and what would its value be if the re-drill of Isobel is sucessful.?...................thats ofcourse assuming proper accurate and measured information is released by the BOD .
NBL doesn't keep all its eggs in one basket which is what FOGL BoD needs to learn quickly. If they hadn't done the DES deal FOGL would have been finished. The BoD needs to use the time looking at other oil or gas deals away from FI and put SFB in the bottom drawer for now. Its the one thing the BoD seems ok at.
Do seem to have waltzed through this week completely un scathed....ended the week up...tarts!!
Eegbvi If I were ceo of noble there would be a few ex - employees signing on Monday morning
Looks to me that both FOGL and NBL got carried away by all their own 'high impact' hype re SFB. They got that alright but not in the way they wanted or expected.
noody interesting chat with the bp guy. there is no doubt oil will go up again its just a case of when, this low oil price enviroment at the moment ties in with low everything else like metals / foods / luxury goods and cheap credit etc. interesting that it makes you think it could all be a world government created thing to make the economy prosper and get people to keep spending which all governments want and need.at some point these cheap things will all have to go up as high inflation is needed because it erodes debt which the world has plenty of.as i said once before the best thing to cure low prices is low prices.once this massive downturn is over the oil companys left will be a lot more leaner and better companys then before the downturn.
Thanks for sharing that with us.....very interesting
The BP $60 is for the BP/NIOC Tehran talks due soon. I deal regularly with Saudi Aramco Qatar Petroleum and ADNOC. All are looking for $75-80 in 2016 some as early as Q2. The fly in the ointment is the US shale bankruptcy numbers which even Saudi is having trouble with at present. Iraq output is falling and its Iraq that was producing the extra 2 mln bpd. Saudi production has also been reduced but of course Putin is carrying on as usual.
I ended up having lunch with an EX-BP oil trader on Thursday as part of a group. Picked his brains over their POO predictions. He said the $60 prediction given by BP after their last results was very conservative and designed to help them under promise and over deliver and provide a strong buffer for any unforeseen headwinds. He said behind closed doors internally as a company they are targeting an average of $75 per barrel within 12 months. He was keen to state that this would fluctuate + or - a few bucks and he personally thought $80 was probably more likely due in the main to the number of huge projects getting mothballed, plugged and scrapped entirely world wide by the big players . He said by next summer people will be thinking differently about oil in general . Only met him for 2 hours but seemed knowledgeable and realistic.....interesting guy......... I guess it will only help us if we can get the bloody stuff out of the ground!!
yes hindsight is a wonderfull thing but i think it will be a very long time before anyone dips their toes back into drilling in the south falklands. noble had a well to drill in the north,and after zeb and issy finds they and fogl should have been encouraged enough to stay in the north in hindsight.if noble had drilled their well after issy and found a lot of oil then it would have pumped the hype and share price for the redrill near issy.the south with its deeper waters was always going to be difficult.
Should have been but probably wasn't. I haven't seen the contract so honestly don't know.
MMs bought more shares than they sold on Thursday so some will still be held probably by the NOMAD to clear MMs books. Those x million shares have to be disposed of via the MMs probably next week. Until they're gone the SP won't rise. But as bid price is now being quoted looks like MMs are relaxed about selling off the surplus left from last Thursday.