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I believe Noble have played a very brutal game of corporate poker with this drill and, in the short term at least Fogl have come off decidedly second best. See sp still dropping, I am convinced long term by the discoveries but as a long time holder of BOR I have to confess this is making me nervous.
Wasn't meaning you in the slightest. But a few peeps that are probably sitting in the background etc reading this BB, they know who they are and were first to jump up and cry Duster!!.............hopefully thinks work out against them and they will feel foolish in the long run.
I've never said it was a duster. Less than one month ago noble were quoted as saying that the humpback well was showing "encouraging signs"
Are starting to believe what i said after the RNS last week, before peeps were saying it's a Duster etc.........it never was a Duster.....it was just non commerically viable at the price of oil today.
Phill164 i tend to agree with you and have said the same myself . It will be left for the future when the oil price rises and the same with BOR.
I believe what noble were really saying in the rns is that no find in the sfb would be commercially viable in the current market environment.
They cannot call it a dry well since they had already announced oil and gas shows, so noble make an announcement that it is not commercial, a subjective assessment on information only they possess which could be defended as such in the future and is not therefore deliberately misleading the market, they say this despite apparently having taken no fluid samples or done any any analysis, yet they are still there over the well. I believe noble had already "parked" the sfb prior to commencing this drill and I am sure they are well aware in the current enviroment that the nature of the rns they released would severely hit fogl's share price making them possibly a much easier take out or cheaper asset purchase down the line. I am not a conspiracy theorist but very little of what has been released and happened over the last 6 weeks, including the noble cfo's presentation statement about billions of barrels in the Falklands, makes sense to me.
http://www.epmag.com/drilling-rig-contracts-no-more-paying-nothing-825206
These are trained geologists. I can smell something and it certainly ain't gas....
well as FOGL have no interest in extracting the oil themselves anyhow I'm pretty sure they'd still want all discoveries logged in the minutest detail regardless of what the poo happens to be at the time of discovery and how NBL feel about any finds in relation to the poo .......it makes no sense to imagine that FOGL would write something off on the basis of the current depressed poo if it were actually possible to be commercial at a higher future poo....it would then surely still represent a potential future asset and have some bargaining value when it comes to FOGL selling up shop even if poo has still not recovered fully at that point.... ?????????????? I think the point I'm trying to make is that surely an exploration company could take a very different view on such an issue compared to an outfit that is much more focused on actual production....?
Commercial or not. - the problem that FOGL has, and to some extent NBL also, is the RNS of 16 Oct referring to 40M of probably reasonably porous sands with oil and gas in them. That is almost twice the size of Sea lion at 25M. They then went on to say they didn't know if it is oil, gas, or water while at the same time doing wire logs. Of course FOGL/NBL knows what they have but for some reason they don't want to come clean. Looks to me like NBL simply wanted to carry on with Rhea simply to recoup some of their Humpy costs, so therefore its very easy to say its not commercial. That means really I suspect 'we're not going to spend anymore cash on SFB until we at least begin to see a likely NFB return'. Absolute sense commercially but NBL can't say that as to do so would give the New York market the wrong impression that NBL is strapped for cash.
So you think they will announce that it will be commercial if oil reaches $100 a barrel. This should of been stated in the rns instead of playing the game where as pi lose out and mate rates are allowed because at the end of the day this oil ain't coming out of ground for a good few years and god only knows what the price of oil will be....
On apr 2 we had zeb well discovery on apr 9 we was drilling isobel. We have spent 5 days sitting on top of a duster something is not right.... So zeb discovery we had 17.5 mtrs of gas and around 25 mtrs of oil logged booked marked down moved on. At humpback 5 days logging dust particles?????
what has been said to make you think it is not commercial 'at the moment'? there is insufficient information available to arrive at that conclusion is that just pure speculation on your part perhaps?
She is not a duster just non commercial at the moment.
and still she sits atop the duster......
Following the current campaign FOGL have stated that they will have £20m cash left, with the addition of the $10m say 6.5m compensation for not drilling Jayne east.. So let say an approximate total of £26.5m. Let's just assume 50% of that has been allocated for any humpback contingency. That leaves us with approx £13-14m in the bank. Approx 3p per share. So they are valuing current assets at 9p. Lets for the sake of argument say oil in the ground is worth around $1.5 per barrel, you could agree this should be higher however lets go with it. In the AGM presentation FOGL suggested they have 102m barrels in the NFB, this doesn't include Isobel/Elaine. Therefore we can put a value of $153m (on this. At current rates $1 is worth 0.65p so the NFB is worth about 18p per share. Isobel / Elaine is approx 400m barrels with FOGL owning 40% so potentially 160mb value of $240 barrels or 29p per share So one the discoveries we have once we have cut the necessary red tape we should assume 18 + 29 + 3p (cash left per share) = 50p per share. Taking into account the markets are valuing our north assets at half their current worth, let's divide our figures by 2... So 9p +14.5p + 3p = 26.5p So once the dust has settled and Isobel is confirmed, we can safely assume a conservative SP in the region of 26 - 50p
I've been watching this site for some considerable time and have been invested in FOGL for years now. There's been ups and downs as could be expected with a zero profit company, it is after all speculation. The wisest sage on the site and consistently has been eegbvi. There's been neither ramping or de-ramping from that source. We can all buy sell, and guess, bottle it, look at the US frackers whatever. The real point is we are dealing with a finite resource, a low oil price, Saudi/US and others politics. If the price drop frightens anyone drop out. This isn't for you. Otherwise enjoy the ride but look for consistent advice on this blog, not rampers and de-rampers. Hold tight, simply put we don't know what's going to happen, but there's oil down there.
We could of done 4/5 appraisal wells on izzy and zeb. I think im getting the hump....
5 days and counting another 20 and we could of drilled izzy
If 101 reasons for delay maybe they should tell us one of them !!
Well I can give you one possibility. They're still logging etc which wasn't done pre announcement Wednesday night. Doesn't mean its oil of course but merely that they have a lot more information for the next SFB modeling round.
babyroo will you chill out and stop moaning.there is probably one hundred and one reasons why the er has not got moving yet, not every thing in life is a conspiracy theory, you have been watching too many x files.as for fair value of the share price i think the current price is fair value and thats coming from me who is down 55% i brought in at 25p.i could not give a monkeys if the share price goes down to 8p because the facts are buying shares is a longterm investment and it might take 5 years to get the full benefit of buying onto fogl.too many people expect to buy shares and expect them to rocket in a week and when they dont they blame every tom dick and harry.the reason fogl shares are at 12p is the market has no concrete info to put a proper value on fogl.put yourselfs in the mm's shoe's, last thursday everyone who's bottle went cashed their fogl shares in at probably big losses, the mm's are suddenly flooded with all these shares so they are hardly going to be offering you a good price if you want to sell yours.now the mm's probably have a large overhang of these shares they have got to sell before the price goes up again.this is the risk you take when you buy aim shares then can and do drop 50% on bad news, when you buy shares in bigger companys like shell you have plenty of chance to get out at a fair price on bad news, as big companys shares do not usually drop 50% on a duster.
Since announcement are they having more technical problems have the thrusters gone, or is this all planned so isobel result doesn't come in till argy elections result hhhhhmmmmmm...
Probably by someone who knows exactly what we have at humpback, never trust americans especially banks and oil companies give you aload of spin and benefit from it. Why are we still at humpback hasn't it cost enough, can't get the plug in because of high pressure......