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yes eegbvi would have to agree about the share overhang, the mm's must still have a lot of spare shares on their books after thursdays sell offs.the trouble is with aim shares is they are not very liquid and the markets size for the mm's to deal with is in reality pathetic hence the high spreads.as anyone knows who buys into aim shares the spreads can be massive and the share price drops on bad news can be at least 50% of companys share price.the mm's take a lot of stick but in all fairness they have a very hard task priceing aim shares, as one wrong move and they can be left with a lot of shares on their hands at high money.once the panic is over the share price will creep back up, but i can't emphasise enough how crucial good news on this next well is for fogl.anymore bad news will not do this share price any favours at all in regard to any fogl future fund raising needs. in hindsight after the first two well success's eegbvi would there have been any get out clause for fogl to have abandoned the humpy drill and stayed in the north of the falklands? it would have saved us a lot of money. thanks in advance
eegbvi - what do you mean by overhang? Its been mentioned a few times on this BB - why is it important?
Interesting that in Feb there was about $105mln cash plus some FI oil plays, but none anywhere near proven and FOGL @ 25-26p. Now we have probably $30 mln in cash plus about 250 mbo of P50 which even at a heavy market discount is worth $300mln albeit not cash with an SP of 13p or so.That suggests this is well oversold in last week's panic. It was also confirmed to some extent in Friday trades where there was also about an extra 1 mln more shares showing as buys but no price movement so the MMs still have a Thursday overhang to deal with. Even more interesting is that the whole of the panic sells were small PIs so just maybe most of the institution holders are not particularly bothered by the Humpback apparent failure. I say apparent as at present no one knows other than NBL which is still sufficiently interested to do a full analysis. Seems they may be waiting for a higher crude price and meanwhile playing with their new toy ARG. All more thought food, not SP pumping by the way just musing.
So what's next for FOGL drilling wise?
FWIW I think in 2016 POO will rise faster and higher than most pundits are saying, starting as early as late Q1
Think we already have the Isobel gusher. Just a bit too gushing on the first well. The new step-out is more or less an appraisal well to try to increase the likely size of the Isobel discovery. If it works it probably will mean that Isobel is larger and better crude flow than Sealion.
The key to the whole situation is as usual politics US, Russia, Saudi/OPEC. Saudi can probably keep its output at the present price for up to another 9 months if it chooses. But will US shale last that long. ?? I doubt it except for Exxon Chevron and a couple of others. As to Russia its Middle East agenda seems to be keeping hold of its Syrian naval base, hence the recent talks re Assad etc. So first thing is the demise of US shale and there Saudi would like to say to its Gulf partners 'There it worked, told you so' but if by early December its not quite there re the bankruptcy numbers in US then we will see another delaying OPEC meeting. But it will likely give Saudi a face saving formula of gradual output/price tightening geared to OPEC increased oil contracts and falling US shale oil. As to FOGL I suspect the Isobel step out will be ok leading to Jan 2016 fuller information. After that I doubt FOGL will be encouraged to anything more re SFB which although probably holding a lot of oil therein is both difficult and expensive to deal with needing a Brent price of $75-80 to be even worthwhile. NFB on the hand only needs Brent at $50-55 to be profitable so FOGL will I hope start to concentrate upon its other two interesting NFB possibilities plus start to raise a bit more cash in a few months time. FOGL should also look seriously at other confirmed oil areas away from FI now that SFB is dead unless the oil price moves up somewhat. This was I think the real message from NBL last week, but they're doing a full Humpback analysis (on what I wonder) so that does rather suggest that if the oil price rises they will have another look provided its within budget. Meanwhile NBL has its new ARG toy to play with. On the question of NFB development that is getting much cheaper and more efficient with new sub sea systems now being employed so it will likely go ahead based on PMO's $85 in 2019. The interesting bit there is what will FOGL's share be & that initially is down to Isobel. There's also the question of where NBL sits in any final equation and that much depends on the ARG acreage final value. All food for thought. !!
its alright everyone keep stating what oil in the ground is worth, but we must remember if price of oil does not pick up no one will be investing any money on infrastructure in a high cost area like the falklands to bring this oil to production.if you look at history, it will tell you that there are lots of good oil wells never brought into production due to low price of oil in the past.i fully expect premier oil to mothball sealion project if oil does not pick up soon.this next well drill for fogl is massive if we do not drill another gusher then this share price could tank to 5p.when people on this board was moaning about the fogl share price at 25p i did say we were lucky to be valued at that in todays low oil price era.
Waited ....pondered....and can now respond much more calmly to the last FOGL RNS. ****! ****! ****ity-****!! Arse! *******s and ****! I knew I should have sold an age ago....Buggar! Buggar! Buggar! .............and I hope you all have a lovely Halloween weekend ! Please
how much gold do fogl own
not that I will treat your response as any kind of investment advice blah blah....;-)
fogl or rkh?
these gold bars seem to just lose their value continuously
in which case mate we are all doooooooooooooooooomed!!!!!!!!
Zeb was a success yes? At what point does this value get reflected in the SP? On CPR? Clearly not before lol I am OK with Humpy being a duster as this was the most likely outcome anyway but I am unhappy that the potential value of Zeb continues to be withheld from us mere shareholders
maybe I just answered my own question i.e they don't care about new investors or indeed any investors as long as their nice salaries and perks keep rolling on....
so they have just condemned shareholder value until some cpr point maybe in Q1 then? on recent experience more likely Q2 or Q3! why on earth would anyone new choose to invest in the meantime?!?!?! poor communications strategy from the board in my view
6 weeks sounds good mate except that its already been over 6 months since Zeb if they are going to ignore obvious opportunities to add shareholder value then why would anyone invest until CPR's have been published?!
Good luck matey. As Tuggy and FalklandInvestor would say..... 50p by Xmas!!!
strike 1 = sp down strike 2 = sp down 'duster' 3 = sp down Zeb CPR = almost a year to produce apparently Nothing to see here...move along please....
maybe time will tell
maybe too far out and then the sp gets smacked again 10p and less no doubt
I'm talking oil world not the market. Just doing a buy out now and looking at a certain couple of oils we can do a reverse take over of for Q1 2016. If we can do it some of the shareholders there will be in for a huge surprise. Those are the numbers we are using at present as oilco to oilco. Sorry no names or even hints indeed private companies may also be involved.
Very large excess of buys over sells today so MMs likely clearing a large overhang from yesterday. When that is cleared SP should start to rise as sellers dwindled today.
African crude lifted at $3 per bbl. Someone's had a few too many or its a misprint for $25 - $30 per bbl in Africa. That is the actual just now.