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Having held since last year is we strike oil, SP falls, we strike more oil and guess what, SP falls. Then we drill a duster and SP falls. What do we have to do to get a decent rise? Nothing because this is AIM the destroyer of value.
Bar charts yes but the problem is they can change in a few minutes so only of any use at that particular point in time.
When I mentioned rushing a bit at the end I meant NBL seemed not to try too hard re any liquids plus pressure and flow tests. Of course they may have had a side track problem with that also. Its all economical with the truth to me. No lies but an awful lot missing. Whether the institutions get a lot more info under the cover of confidentiality agreements that's another matter though.
Barchart for 28/10/15 signal is 96% sell... And this was without today's RNS...
There's a big chunk left out at the end LSE lost it somehow. Gist was Saudis will fix the weather as shale will be down plus Iran is overblown but problem may still be Russia and Iraq production. NBL will drill more ARG while FOGL probably organises a placement on the back of Isobel while PMO/RKH argue re developing Isobel or sealion first. Would also expect SP to recover starting with Isobel spud. All just opinion as there are no details to analyse. Re FOGL cash I suspect it will be somewhere between your number and mine so FOGL has no real problem unless another deal pops up.
Why am i starting to believe that the sfb drill was already a side show before it started what with noble having bought into the nfb after the zebedee result. I may be wrong but i think fogl have to drill one well in the sfb to satisfy their licence requirements but beyond that is it possible noble rushed the end of the drill as eegbvi suggests because they have no intention of developing the sfb in the current market and now want to concentrate on the north.
Been reading and trying to decipher the word meaning of these two announcements plus the previous one of oil, gas, water, even perhaps olive oil. I think overall its fair to say that much of this situation is caused by NBL commercial politics (nothing to do with the Argies) as its clear that NBL set out with a Q3 budget plus timetable with probably ARG/ Rhea fitting into Q4 2015 so that costs can all be defrayed in 2015 at least as far as any drilling is concerned. Hence the sudden end rush and no flow tests or pressure tests. They will instead largely rely upon well logs and lines into early 2016. From that they both know now that they have oil not water plus some gas probably mainly in the HPX section which in my opinion NBL foolishly pursued as at that depth it was almost certain to be gas or condensates. FOGL was absolutely correct on that bit in not getting drawn into it. As to the analysis etc from the well logs plus lines they will certainly know what they have oil which is I suspect 28api crude plus some gas. The question then arises, how much, is the porosity ok and where are the main oil pools or deposits ?? These will all now need to be factored into any likely calculations. Meanwhile the well has proved the effective seal plus a working hydrocarbons system which is more than any previous SFB well ever did. This will take NBL and FOGL into Jan 2016 by which time hopefully NBL may have had Rhea success thus defraying its Humpback costs and FOGL a good Isobel result allowing it some room for a share placement or underwriting manoeuvre. I doubt it will at this stage be a rights issue judging by today's market of only 2% or so of FOGL issued shares actually changing hands plus since FOGL is fully carried re Isobel there's no great hurry for more cash unless another deal suddenly pops up. Be interesting to see how much cash FOGL has left now but based on $95mln at the start I think they have to pay 27.5% of about $160 mln or so plus there is another $10 mln due to them so they should have about $35 -40 mln left out of which there will $5mln or so for analysis and CPRs once PMO agree to that bit. Clearly no Humpback CPR will be due. Returning to the question of the Humpback well being non commercial I would not be at all surprised to see Humpback finally flagged up as being possibly 150-200 mln bbls but needing a Brent price of $75-80 to be worth bothering with on its own. SFB is much deeper than NFB and also somewhat further from P Stanley and PMO has already hinted that sealion is ok at $50-55 per bbl so if we allow for profits the extraction cost should be in the $40 range including taxes and pipeline to port of shipment. That would likely take Humpback/SFB into the $55-60 range for costs per bbl so its makes it quite obvious the call of yesterday by NBL. What we have at present is the golfers on the fairway deciding the next stroke to the green and the pin while looking
was noble able to release a rns on humpy drill results while the uk markets was closed . good job there's oil in north basin .
I have lost money today .its only relative if your buying or selling ....we all know the pit falls and rewards so simply stick or sell patients patients or walk away with a little bit more experience Good Luck
Yes indeed, Fri 11th Sep 2015 16:01, I had my finger clicking the sell button top of the spike but Barclays not accepting the trade, unable to get a price and then the speeding ticket RNS came out and plummets back to the low 20's. Now sitting on a hefty paper loss. Talk about the MM's looking after their city mates.
I did read somewhere FOGL have cash for the next drill then continue for the next few years with no future commitments so basically after the next drill they need cash one way or another to do anything. I've no idea if Humpty had a knock on effect on this cash situation. I'm thinking about purchasing some FOGL now as there is surely a good chance of making a quick 25% without subjecting yourself to any drill results ?
Well at least there was a large volume of shares traded today compared to the normal low liquidity...Or is it too soon to start making light hearted conments
Late RNS?
Lies, damned lies and.............Fogl BOD. A LITTLE birdie tells me that an investigation may be underway re: Frantic Friday (Family Shares!)
Lies, damned lies and.............Fogl BOD. A LITTLE birdie tells me that
FOGL have about $10m in cash still, and wisely handed the over-budget bill on this well to Noble in exchange for the 35% of the lower ( over budget sections ). So $10m is plenty for a long time. Years even.
please excuse the duplication of my post - some technical problem on the site. Anyway,off to read the chapter and verse of today's RNS ,can hardly wait. Nurse...my tot of whisky,s'il vous plait!
They were up over 5% yesterday after news release , but then they had good news from the GOM and are not in the least reliant on the Falklands unlike FOGL.
I,ve been out all day,a half term commitment,and can hardly believe what has happened today. The abandonment of Humpy is a colossal blow and we will have to wait for Isabel etc. I was in DES when they hit water but was never expecting a 33% drop here. Too much. I haven't yet read the full RNS but have got the picture. Let us sit tight and await the next instalment. This share is surely worth somewhat more than today's 13p. Today's news plus the drop in oil price have led to this sorry state of affairs but ,given time,things should improve and we should see a return to the 20s . All imho. I am as gutted as all holders here,but would not bail out at this price. I think - and hope - we have hit the bottom and will see a gradual improvement in SP until next year. Meanwhile....NURSE! The Valium,please!!
I think everyone took a bath on Afren. I sold at 24p but had bought at 27p so I lost here to. normal trades. We may see some more slippage here in the next day or so, but I hope for all this is the bottom, it still has good assets , and cash, but I agree Rockhopper offers a much safer option between the two, and you may see Insitutioninvestors doing a straight swap between the two. we played on the 50% average out.
see their share price is up 1%....b******s
With regards afren that was total greed by the bondholders they wanted 89% of the company. I hope that some people see time for what went on at afren because that is what they deserve.
Shaggymac I sent my question just before lunch.i have no doubt I'm now blacklisted by fogl. I'm a man of my word I did undertake not to post reply.i feel very bad about posting it. I did point out to fogl that shareholders should be made aware and asked fogl to issue new rns so that all shareholders would be party to the information.
I dare say I am being naive but how do they know this if they were not able to collect samples, and why did noble i am sure say less than a couple of weeks ago that there were encouaging signs at Humpback, which was after they had drilled through the main pre drill targets.
Start pushing this skywards tomorrow to make loads out of it.