The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
it's not like Isobel was nailed on, it was still a risk and RKH provide a safety net... Also it's not like we have a queue of suiters with higher offers. The POO is the problem here. The fact remains we have no money to survive.. It's simple you have no money no future... Isobel needs a couple more appraisal wells to fully determine what we have, so currently represents little value to either RKH or FOGL while POO remains low. What we need is time... in order to buy time, you need money... What other realistic alternatives do we have?.... Yep thats correct NONE!
Like many on here I have a much higher average than the current SP... Held and bought well before humpback. We are where we are and humpback was different, we would have different options on the table. However staying in the game is and should be our only concern. RKH has fallen as much more than our SP, the offer represents fair value at present with POO. Combined FOGL and RKH are much stronger and shareholders have a much better chance of seeing the SP return to decent levels. Alone neither will survive. Cash is king at the moment, and cash is what you need to see us through this temporary storm. Assets will one day represent fair value, but not currently. Sensible deal for all parties.
Why are people of the opinion we have been shafted... We have no Money... hence no choice... merge or go bust. Simples. it's better to be part of something than part of nothing.
2016 is the high number of mergers and acquisitions. You see, the current low price environment is ushering in a wave of M&A activity that will stabilize the oil sector by making it leaner and more consolidated. This will lower the number of U.S. producers and birth a new group of heavyweight companies that will strengthen prices. Full article: http://moneymorning.com/2015/12/11/wti-crude-oil-price-prediction-2016-where-will-the-market-go-from-here/
Anyone would sell at these prices is beyond me! Admittedly most are sitting on a heavy paper loss. But don't let you emotions cloud your judgement. In the next 2 months we have it all to come, mergers, aggressive takeovers, results from Isabelle, crp, more news from the campaign including what was found at humpback. Senitement will change here... Of that I am certain.
The SP is taking a battering, but this can go up as quickly as its come down. Oil stocks are currently out of favor, which for the savvy is the the ideal time to buy. We have a safety net now with RKH deal in place. A Merger will happen, It has too for both Fogl or RKH to weather the storm. The reversal will come, and when it does oil prices will be at the other extreme. Patience people patience! Its a waiting game now, but rewards will come to those who wait.
Thanks
Can I ask you to break down the 270 mln bbls.... Thanks in advance
My thoughts exactly they seemed like the wanted to avoid mentioning it... Two sentences to sum up 150days.... Something not quite right there.... "Understanding on 2 prospects, 10 million acres to learn from." I also noticed the way he reference reservoir quality it seem to couple that statement with the lower target HPX Plus Interesting the use of language when referring to this drill... he's now referring to these in the past tense so... "Prospects" indicate the possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring.
It's certainly not a duster... finding oil is the primary objective.. So it is 3 out of 3 in that respect. However we don't know much else apart for a very vague rns. They stated the discovery was not commercial. Could be many reasons for them stating this, quantity, quality, current price of oil and cost to extract. Or is it around the uncertainty about what exactly they have in the 40m zone, ie are they trying to obtain fluid samples. The fact they still remain at the well shows they have something on interest. I wouldn't be righting off the south basin just yet. This proves oil exist.... It maybe a few years, but we may just have found the key to the door. Bodes very well long term.
Due to a number of technical issues samples from the initial 40m of hydrocarbons encountered could not be taken... Without this they can not confirm what they have either way, we know there was crude oil shows which was mentioned in the first RNS. Fogl / noble probably know what it is, however cannot validate this to the markets without samples and conclusive evidence. We know it was encouraging enough for noble to want to keep drilling. The lower targets where always going to be a long shot so they must have seen something good. However without fluid samples the results of initial 40m which may very well contain high quality crude oil have to be deemed uncommercial. They cannot say to the market we think... Or we assume... Until they have the fluid samples they basically speculating on what it might be from mud samples and previous drilling data, which simply doesn't cut it.
They don't know what it is and what they have purely because samples couldn't be collected at the time... Hence it will always be deemed uncommercial until samples have been taken as they simply don't know.
They are trying to obtain fuild samples from the initial 40m?
Following the current campaign FOGL have stated that they will have £20m cash left, with the addition of the $10m say 6.5m compensation for not drilling Jayne east.. So let say an approximate total of £26.5m. Let's just assume 50% of that has been allocated for any humpback contingency. That leaves us with approx £13-14m in the bank. Approx 3p per share. So they are valuing current assets at 9p. Lets for the sake of argument say oil in the ground is worth around $1.5 per barrel, you could agree this should be higher however lets go with it. In the AGM presentation FOGL suggested they have 102m barrels in the NFB, this doesn't include Isobel/Elaine. Therefore we can put a value of $153m (on this. At current rates $1 is worth 0.65p so the NFB is worth about 18p per share. Isobel / Elaine is approx 400m barrels with FOGL owning 40% so potentially 160mb value of $240 barrels or 29p per share So one the discoveries we have once we have cut the necessary red tape we should assume 18 + 29 + 3p (cash left per share) = 50p per share. Taking into account the markets are valuing our north assets at half their current worth, let's divide our figures by 2... So 9p +14.5p + 3p = 26.5p So once the dust has settled and Isobel is confirmed, we can safely assume a conservative SP in the region of 26 - 50p
Totally agree babyroo... The problem is until they release data in regards to the two discoveries they can't be priced in. Isobel and zeb will bring us back to fair value... 40p + However this is going to happen until details are released. Which could be another 3-6 months. Hopefully by then the price oil will be better than currently so this hopefully will play its part. Unfortunately its a waiting game now.
May fluctuate for a week or 2 before climbing back.... Still all to play for.... I'd expect 18p prior to TD at izzy.. Only once details are in will it then reflect true value of say 45p+ Long term i expect FOGL will be wary on any Noble involvement going forward. They have seriously embarrassed TB and the FOGL board.
Whats your view on the SP post izzy, assuming the POO remains the same? Very disappointed with the current value, i think we all thought, including yourself that Humpty would be underpinned by the previous 2 discoveries... i didn't expect it to fall so hard. I appreciate without details it is hard to place a value them, just thinking ballpark?
Although not directly related, it's going to open up the south basin and massively change sentiment here as well. All the stars seem to be aligning to see a massive reversal on the cards. I've just brought my average down. It's been a good few years of pain for most invested here...... but I think that's about to change! GLA
When did you receive it, I'm still waiting. Definite NO from me.
Surely this means they have wind if the deal not getting passed! Why drop it to 142, when it's as nailed on 155 Looking like will get a very strong shareholder vote for No, until they come back with a realistic offer £2.55 would be more like it.