The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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The following is worth a quick read.
This article indicates the NT gov't support for the Beetaloo gas is strong and the new Federal position that more gas needs to be secured until 2050 -- with the Beetaloo as one of the key drivers of that gas security. I think this NT gov't position, (along with the contract to buy 40 mm of gas per day from the Pilot project) should guarantee that the EMP will be passed fairly soon.
Now, we just need to see Tamboran complete their US Fund raising program -- and then we will get clarity on when the next two horizontals get underway.
https://energyproducers.au/all_news/nt-budget-underscores-importance-of-gas-in-bolstering-the-territorys-economy/
I always thought that the Australian Beetaloo will beat the Argentinan Vaca Muerta
Oil production in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta play has breached 300,000 barrels a day, following 5 years of breakneck growth. After November’s election of Javier Milei ushered in a more business-friendly national government, many are wondering how high production can rise.
On well performance alone, the Vaca Muerta looks like a world-class play. The Vaca Muerta, unlike the Permian but similar to the Eagle Ford, has both a gas window and an oil window. Recent wells in the oil window outproduce the Permian and Bakken by over 26%, thanks to lower decline rates. The gas window has not seen as much recent drilling, but wells there perform similarly to the Marcellus, making over 4 BCF in their first 18 months (normalized to 10k’).
It’s thanks to this strong well performance that operators have been able to grow production despite higher per-well costs than found in the Lower 48. Vista Energy, in their May 2024 investor presentation, quoted their 2023 average from their Bajada Del Palo Oeste block at $14.3MM D&C per well.
How does this growth rate compare to shale plays in Lower 48? The Vaca Muerta took ~5.5 years to grow from 50,000 bbl/d to 300,000 bbl/d, three months faster than the Bakken took. The Bakken, as the first unconventional oil play in Lower 48, is probably the best analog for development pace, even though other plays are more similar geologically. Supply chains have to be built, knowledge bases established, and offtake/infrastructure constructed.
The Eagle Ford, DJ, and Permian went much faster from 50k to 300k bbl/d, taking 1 year, 2.7 years, and 2.8 years, respectively. It’s worth noting that the Vaca Muerta has accomplished this while having most of its development operated by YPF, which is majority-owned by the Argentine government since 2013, another big contrast with the Lower 48, where smaller operators could collectively accomplish a lot, quickly (not to mention the great rush to hold leases by production).
When you look at the running room left in the Vaca Muerta, it’s obvious that the play is still very early in its development. The play has around 3 million acres in the oil window and 2.6 million acres in the gas window. Blocks that have seen development are
Due to the "very hard working public relation genius" POQ, there was according to this website only one executed order with a value of about 50 Pounds. What is wrong with this guy that he is not promoting this company?
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https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Australian-Producers-Warn-of-Natural-Gas-Crunch.html
This guy is on the board of Falcon
"Mr. Nally was appointed as Non-executive Chairman and to the Board of the Company in September 2021. Mr Nally has over 45 years’ experience in London’s capital markets including 18 years at Cenkos Securities PLC, a firm he co-founded in 2004. Mr Nally was an Executive Director and Head of Natural Resources at Cenkos, where he helped to build, develop and give strategic advice to a number of successful companies in the oil and gas sector. Prior to this, Mr Nally was a partner and director at Williams de Broe and an individual member of the International Stock Exchange of London."
There was big hope that he will help Mr. POQ to promote and to sell FOG. What went wrong in Ireland?
FOG is not the operating company in the Beetaloo.
I worked together with colleagues in an oil company who worked in the joint venture department . A very small team for many different assets, operated by other oil companies. FOG has got only one operator to keep in touch.
So this is a very easy job for POQ. Lets say Mr POQ is an ambigious guy and spends one hour per day for this part of his job. What he is doing for Falcon during the rest of the day? It is obviously not promoting FOG.
In the mean time I think that it is wantonly negligent for the company to keep this passive Mr. POQ in his position at FOG.
Any real alternatives?.
LOL, if you give me this job I promise you to be at least 2 hours in the office per working day. One hour talking with the operator TBN and one hour per day I would try to promote this bird with this massive resource which will follow the same path of development as other shale gas basins as the Vaca Muerta or the established shale gas basins in the US. And I would do it for the half salary Mr POQ is earning .
Then who would turn the lights on and off!