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All buys today - let’s hope we get back to where we stared yesterday!!
Just to let everyone know, I’m really clued up about Falcon, was 25% up on Monday, I topped up last week and bought gain at 10% down yesterday. You know it was a stellar result. Been waiting an age for that news. Happy with Phillips meeting. The price is now lower on stellar news and I managed to bin 23% profit in a day. Go figure because I cant. Got to be a raise, we can’t dilute the % holding anymore. Funnily enough not concerned, frustrated yes, but just more time to wait and I’ve got a lot less of that than when I first invested. Onto Cheltenham.
805slo: I agree with what you posted but want to add one minor point and a few other comments. The two 3K wells to be drilled this year will both be drilled/cased back-to-back before they are fracked back-to-back. We therefore won't see the IP flow rate of the first well before the second is drilled/cased. With Liberty being capable of fracking 5-6 stages a day, it won't take too long (~ two weeks) to actually frack (60 stages) of the SS-2H well and then proceed to the SS-3H well. Even at fracking/clean-up, from what I understand, these wells after completion will all be shut-in until all 6 wells are drilled/fracked and the gas processing plant is in place along with the pipeline connection.
As far as the selling, I believe it was all the distressed shares along with the hot money looking for a quick profit. I suspect that we will soon see the end of the selling pressure and then the stock should begin to rebound. I'm not familiar with the London and Canadian market but as 805slo indicated, not many shares were even sold on the US market today - I believe only about $65K - just not any buyers yet.
I feel more optimistic, relaxed than ever about Falcon - that 6.4mmcf/d flow rate was as mentioned a 'stellar' rate. Falcon has sufficient funds to drill the next two wells before it has to go for another raise - I suspect by that point with a couple of 3K 18-20mmcf/d wells under their belt the stock price will be in much better shape if Falcon is still around by then - if not, I'm confident that Falcon will be sold before all 4 wells are drilled next year - Falcon has a sell by 1/1/26 date.
Also don't forget the sole clause rights of Falcon - after the first of the 4 wells in 2025, I believe Falcon could opt out and only loose the production of the following three wells having already earned the 6400 acre participation block surrounding the first well - that production on two=three wells is not going to affect the purchase price of Falcon's 22.5% of 4.6 million acres. - Someone check me on that!
If I had the available funds, I would be buying right here - with this current price I can see at least a 4X return by the time we sell. Falcon owns 22.5% of "The Largest Undeveloped' Shale field in the world. This last week we got a peek under the blanket at what this gigantic field holds. Would anyone care to guess how many 3K wells can be drilled on the current 1-million-acre deeper horizon? Likely about 2000 wells in the Velkerri B alone! And then as Philip said, the Amungee field with its 5mmcf/d normalized rate is no slacker. Some company/conglomerate is going to want Falcon's 22.5% of this its potential concession.
Falcon will raise money via private equity and it will have a minimal impact on share dilution. They are not going to farm down nor will they have to with these flow rates. They nailed flow rates that took many many wells for others to achieve in other areas. And I have been critical of the folks involved. I can’t explain the lack of stock movement but it appears here in the US most of the sales were were small holders. You could watch a sale of a few thousand dollars of stock push the price down a few percentage points. In two days of trading, less shares have been moved then many of us hold. If FOG and TAM nail the next two wells FOG will be sold. Actually, I think if they nail the first one our story ends. There will be no further dilution or anything. They will be sold. 12-18 months. I didn’t understand the rational to sell last week…and I certainly do not understand the rational to sell now. The geology is there. The rate is there. A few more successes and folks will be rewarded. I will be buying more. Personally, I see right now as a very rare opportunity. Obviously, there is still some risk. But I think those who hold and accumulate will be rewarded. And absent a government shutdown or another pandemic, its going to happen within 18 months max IMO. Happy investing;)
If Falcon was to be put up for sale, would it be a) Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Limited or b) Falcon Oil & Gas Limited ?
If it is a) then Falcon would still own the prospect in South Africa.
TBN spiked to 25 right after news, only to fall back to 19 the next day. Been creeping back up now. I think same will play out for FO
Newtofo!
Pleasure to read some words from you. But please, don't make me laugh. I want you to live a long and happy life. We dont have to worry as the Falcon dream will materialise soon (1-3yrs).
I am 100% convinced that your adage will bring me nice buying opportunities soon. But I doubt the SP will go down to CAD 0.10-0.12, my preferred buying zone.
Hey Marsh -- I think you might be in luck as my old adage of "you can always always buy Falcon cheaper" appears to be back and in full force again.
I was positive after the news on Sunday that the adage was dead and gone, but now think that I might be dead and gone before my adage is -- LOL.
Derrik, I wasn't smart enough either. First, didn't sell all my Falcons and still hold some (in the profit zone, though). Second, could have sold when they tripled, but didn't.
Since Sunday, I definitely want more Falcons in my portfolio.
I wish i was smart enough to do that!
Hahaha, not quite, WG.
I had a lot of Falcons for a long time and sold them after they doubled. Wanted to get back in but the price was too high.
I think one thing we learned is the SP ceiling is not really affected by the flow results although the floor would have been dropped by bad results. It's taken us 10+ years to realize this and now we need to know what WILL raise the price? A buyout hopefully. More good results? Maybe- but we thought that before. Actual cash flow? You would think so. But somehow POQ has to monetize this company for the shareholders.
You’ve been waiting for what for 10 years? For the stock to drop 30%? Congratulations!!!
I like it when the share price goes down. :-)
Placed some stink bids a while ago, but they were not executed. Will build up a Falcon position again if the price is right.
Side note: Sunday was an exciting day as Falcon finally hit the jackpot. Been waiting for this for over ten years.
Just watched the investor Q&A and to be fair. It's really positive. To summarize it looks like we want to stay in for the full pilot programme at our 22.5%. we are not looking to dilute or divest any of our holding. While we aren't fully funded for the six wells, we aim to be through a number of avenues available and if worst comes to worst we can reduce or participation on a well by well basis. We should in production by 2026 and generating cash.
We should see real significant value creates over this year and next as we repeat the recent results on longer wells.
We don't see any major environmental issues looming and while we are not looking to court potential suitors now the horizon for a sale is during the pilot program (12,18,24 months).
We have 5m in the bank and a 2.something carry that ladders up to AUS$16m Gross cost.
We are staying in the current formation for the 6 wells.
While he was coy on a valuation or share price. Terms like Multiples of current share price and
significant value creation were used which gives me comfort that the goal is to sell but not give away the family jewels.
Worth a watch if you are in the fence about staying the course.
Really disappointing share movement so far this week but maybe a placement is imminent or maybe not. What I'm sure of though is the pilot program goes ahead with or without us and unless we divest our 22.5% of give away mental royalties our asset will be worth much much more in 2 years.
Finally we can do nothing and see value add. But thankfully it sounds like the intention is to partake in the full 6 well program.
This summary of the Q&A is not financial advice. Haha
Now you will have more time at the stables with your friend Jack. We don't need your type here
I think the price dropped because Mathy's still has 40 million shares to sell. We will only see a TR-1 if he drops below 3%.
POQ said in the Q&A Brian has 9% of FOG shares. (he previously said 15% which was a mistake, Brian has a 15% stake in Tamboran)
O99
I agree. I reckon there's a placing in the pipeline which I have no problem with now that it seems the operational aspect of FOG is firmly on the correct path.
Down 17% today to 9.75p no news but rummer of placing .
Insider dealing and chat in city.
Yesterday my target sell of 11.5p was increased to 13.5p on similar day share price rise .
Was regretting the 10.5p slice on 8th two weeks ago.
What a difference a day makes on AIM.
Shoving needles in my eyeballs and tearing off my fingernails one by one will be less painful than holding on to these F’ING shares. What a waste of the past 12 yrs. Sorry people, I have nothing intelligent to post here. I’m just F’ING angry. No more posts from me. Adieu.
Thanks for the link ITguy.
Atb,
Northern
I can only imagine that today's huge fall in the SP reflects the market's concern that sooner rather than later we are likely to see a very large discounted, i.e. sub-10p per share funds raise, which according to POQ's comments yesterday is likely to be in the form of a placement at the expense therefore of smaller long-suffering smaller shareholders. FOG then gets acquired on the cheap.
I bottled selling big this morning. Brian could make a move and I would kick myself if I was out at the time.
Sold 2 x £5,000 at 11p.
Bought back in at 10p.
Really disappointing but I'm honestly not worried. Played with the idea of selling yesterday to buy more shares back at a level like we are seeing today. But I didn't because for the first time since I've owned these shares Falcon is viable. We have enough cash to see the next long drills through to completion this year then we can sit out on the next 3 (and won't lose access to the acres just those wells) as we are already on the pad that they will be drilled off. But my guess is once the market sees two longer wells giving commercial level gas our share price will move or we'll be scoped up for multiples.
While I could try and scoop up another 50k of shares on the meantime it's not worth the risk which is thos share moves without me on board.
Not trying to sugar coat it either. I'm as disappointed as the next person on the share movement but it hasn't moved on fundamentals or risk. It's moved on human speculation and at low volumes.
Be brave now as for the first time we are commercial and sitting on a dragon's horde of gas. We have 22% and don't have to be dragged through the bush backwards to see value accretion. We don't have to give any holdings away or do a raise at these low levels. Get the two wells drilled and things will change for the better.
What's 6 more months for a much happier ending
If history is any indicator, POQ is already working on the next raise now. $5M cash and balance of carry doesn’t provide enough financial strength to ensure participation in future wells. I’d say he’s looking to raise another $15-20m on the back of these results and the pending 2 wells in 2024. He can’t afford to run out of cash before the completion of the next 2. The institutions know this and are likely keeping a lid on this. Frustrating but it is what it is. Let’s just get on with it and get to the sale.