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Agreed.
I’ve been buying again today. The company now has an EV of less than £3mn but a monthly income stream of ca £400k with a total value of about £25mn, so about 5 years’ duration. The current mkt cap implies a discount rate of over 60% pa, which is nonsensical.
I don’t read too much into the irregular trades; just people who got bored or institutions cleaning house. I can’t believe there is much free float left for the market-maker / broker to buy up. I’m personally just looking forward to see what the Board has to say (maybe Q2 2024?) about how the monetisation of the receivable will be achieved and the plan to get the value (my view >GBP25m, note will need to be discounted back for time value of money and risk of non-receipt) back to long suffering shareholders of this stock. I still think it is 3.5-4.5x from here so will continue to hold my 2.5m shares to see but it is risky so not going to accumulate more. But DYOR and formulate your own view.
Today’s trade was a buy at below mid-price
That trade was mine. Including another buy today, I’ve now accumulated 1.4mn shares and might add more if there are any dips on sales. 0.4p per share annual dividends looks a reasonable target, implying a distribution of about 50% of FNK’s free cash flow. That’s a current dividend yield of about 50% and a p/e of about 1. Risk doesn’t look as great as implied by the current share price.
02 Jan 24
09:29
50,000 0.80 400.00
so far today
I bought 650k today @0.7p, and 350k yesterday. I imagine the 500k trade today was also a buy. I can’t imagine LOGI breaking the agreement; it’s too favourable for them and an international court case would surely follow, possibly freezing their entire income in the meantime (see the current SAVE dispute with the Chadian government). Our Directors are significant shareholders, so I doubt they will waste money - but may choose to prolong the company’s existence (and their salaries) by acquiring assets, rather than returning all funds to shareholders. That’s the largest risk from my perspective. But seen as an annuity, the value of the asset is not remotely reflected in the share price, that will surely change next year as regular LOGI payments continue. Patience should be rewarded.
Per the 22/12/23 RNS, a further significant amount collected on the LOGI receivable. These payments are being received by FEN with increased regularity. The net assets by my calculation remain at the GBP25m level with $2m of that in cash on the FEN balance sheet, a reasonably low level of SGA (hopefully) and no other liabilities other than the SAIL loan (payments on that are contingent on FEN receiving payments from LOGI itself).
Perhaps the Board will manage to waste that ever increasing cash pile and/or the payments from LOGI may dry up - no guarantees. I anticipate the Board saying something about their plans in Q2 2024. Up until then, I too am sitting tight with my fingers crossed.
A few chunky trades going through on Aquis which I can only presume are individuals or institutions that have to sell, have just got fatigued, have no faith in the current Board and/or no confidence in LOGI continuing to be able or willing to continue to make instalment payments. We shall see.
Took a punt buying LEK early sept 2021 so avg here is low. deffo a hold and wait for me.
Can’t wait to see if this Board is any better than the last in honouring its commitment to shareholders and managing jts cost. The base is low. The hurdle is low. My expectations are low. I would love to see me proved wrong.
Today’s RNS, is further validation of the hold and wait strategy and I am awaiting with anticipation for further news on what the Board will do next year to monetise the net receivable. With GBP37m of cash and receivable on the balance sheet less about GBP12m owed to SEIL, a net circa GBP25m of net assets. I’m hoping for a some form of corporate event so that we don’t have to wait 4-6 years to collect in the rest of the receivable. As always, DYOR and respect the cash collection risk this entity is exposed to.
Hi ripley94,
I still have some with T212 that have the ticker LEK but the name as Fenikso.
Last 'movement/recorded price' of GBX 1.00 on 30/09/2021.
The stock I moved from D to HL is showing the current (correct) value.
17/06/2022 seems an odd date to me (but Degiro, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ), as looking at the Aquis timeline, it looks like it didn't resume trading until 26/07/2022. (I forget the actual date)
My broker ( D ) has the old name and this as the price GBX 0.95 17/06/2022 01:00 must be last day LEK traded .
Often see large % day gains not sure whats going on .
Prep today’s RNS, further progress towards the monetisation of the LOGI loan and corresponding settlement of the SAVI liability. In theory, the Board should be coming forward in the next 3-6 months with a plan of how they intend returning excess cash to shareholders. For a company with net positive assets in excess of $30m and a reasonable track record of converting those assets into cash every 6-8 week s or so, I think there is a reasonable prospect of shareholders seeing some cash back next year or alternatively, some form of corporate action. DYOR
On the basis of today’s RNS, $47.8m owed to FNK by LOGI and $[15.4]m owed to SAVI by FNK (note - most of the payment of the SAVI liability is conditional upon receipt of funds by FNK from LOGI so a matching asset/liability - a net $32.4m owed to FNK. Costs of running FNK should be less than $[0.5]m per year. Time to collect from LOGI say 5-10 years. Apply a discount rate for the time value of money it will take to monetise that $32.4m net asset less annual operating costs and then take a view on the difference between the price you can buy these shares on the market now [market cap $5m] versus their inherent discounted value. DYOR and caveat emptor.
LEK changed its name to Fenikso and ticker code code to FEN when the settlement with Lekoil Nigeria was agreed Jan 2023. Fenikso ended up with 1 single asset - a $52m or so loan to Lekoil Nigeria who have been repaying that loan since then every 4-6 weeks out of proceeds they receive from Shell on their oil lifting. There is limited Fenikso shares being traded on the Aquis stock exchange. I am anticipating some form of corporate action and a monetisation event next year but all dependant on the oil lifting continuing and minimal shut-ins in the Delta (but please DYOR and make your own call).
Hi Em,
Is this in reference to the old LEK entity..
I’ve had shares suspended in this for years, never had a suspension last so long in all my time.
I’d written it off, but if you’re referring to LEK ( now Fenika ) and think there’s a chance of getting any of it back, I’d be pleasantly surprised but certainly wouldn’t complain.
Further evidence today on delivery of the revised plan by the current board / management with confirmation of the share cancellation. Hopefully, we will be seeing an announcement of cash back to Fenikso shareholders or a Fenikso share buy back programme in the coming months. Whilst there continues to be not insignificant risk around cash coming our way out of the LOGI oil lifting going forward, I see no point selling now unless you have to but please DYOR.
My understanding is that the 108m shares (previously owned by Lekoil Nigeria, Associates and Affiliates) are in the process of being cancelled.
With a remaining loan balance to be received of $48.5m less say $16m owed to Savannah, taking into account future costs to run Fenikso, and assuming 500m shares in issue (post cancellation) maybe a market cap of $30m or 6 US Cents per share versus a current price being traded of circa 1 US cent. All predicated on cash flow from LOGI continuing to flow our way. Maybe worth a further punt now? Views?
So outstanding creditors now paid, a good milestone, and a start made on paying down the Savannah loan of $16.2m. I think that Savannah get the first $1.5m and then a significant majority of the the subsequent LOGI payments are cash to Fenikso’s long suffering shareholders! It will either be a share buyback or dividends.
It was a name change, your Lekoil shares are now Fenikso shares. Try the Aquis stock exchange website for more info or the Fenikso ltd website (there won't be much info on the new company as its asset is just a loan - currently). GLA, Dan
I completely lost track and gaev up on Lek oil. Can't seem to find much info on this new company. Have my lekoil shares been transferred to Fenikso?
Another $644000 repaid today. On track and all going according to plan atm.
Your analysis seems fair to me EM202020 but I fear that the repayments from LOGI may take over 12 years as a worst case scenario (if they typically get around $650,000 every 8weeks). This is a strange stock. They originally had a loan with Olekan if my memory is correct, which he did not pay. Now they have this $51.9M loan to LOGI (same as Olekan really) and hope to get regular payments (every 6-8 weeks) from oil sales at Otakikpo. Quite a risk, so will definitely be interesting to see if these payments turn up. Also, why have the outstanding approx. 108M shares held by Lekoil Nigeria not been cancelled. They were supposed to be cancelled at the end of Jan I think - just a strange situation. GLA, Dan
Will be interesting to see if the ‘monthly’ LOGI redemption payments continue to turn up in the Fenikso bank account