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Thanks CJ
As a few people think I think they will announce at the CMD US day the US listing of FD - this stock could seriously take off in next few weeks - especially if trading statement is ok
I can’t think of many other UK tech companies which have beaten all the US cos AND have such a huge market share of 50%
I think doubling in next 12 months is possible without getting carried away
Yes the news came out at about 10:30pm UK time. Will be interesting to see where the share price opens up on Monday.
Did news of fox etc come out after hours Friday ?
https://sportshandle.com/fanduel-dominant-position-new-york/
Is Flutter grossly undervalued? The arbitrator valued FanDuel at $20bn in Dec 2020 and have deemed it be worth an additional 5% for each year up until 2030. This means FanDuel has been valued at $22bn which is over £19bn. Flutter’s market cap as of right now is only £20.2bn which means all of Flutter’s other worldwide ventures are worth £1.2bn. Not a chance.
The exciting part of the US business is that there are still 20 states to legalise online betting, including California and Florida.
The gambling sector is a massive growth market, expected to treble worldwide between 2021 and 2030.
Don’t let your shares go cheaply. Flutter is grossly under valued at these levels. Third quarter update due on Wednesday, it should make for good reading.
The ruling is backdated from Dec 20, so today FD is valued at $22bn, with the 5% yearly increment. Fox have 8 years before they have to hand the money over, without having to fund the development of the FD business, which ain't great. We have to wait until 2023 until we get a ruling on the FD IPO. Besides the near doubling of the initial $11.2bn valuation, there is still a great degree of uncertainty.
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Closing-Bell/2022/11/04/Fox-wins-arbitration-Flutter.aspx
What are people's thoughts on the judgement between Fox and Flutter? I am confused by this, from what I read Flutter was not against Fox purchasing 18.6% of FanDuel, surely it has a lot of advantages with FanDuel being promoted on the Fox network. I was lead to believe the dispute was that Fox valued FanDuel at $11.2bn which Flutter said was not a fair value.
So the judgement is that Fox can purchase the 18.6% but that FanDuel is valued at $20bn sounds a fantastic result for Flutter. Given that Flutter's market cap right now is £20.5bn but Flutter's 95% stake is FanDuel has been deemed to be worth $19bn, (£16.7bn) that makes Flutter's market cap look grossly undervalued if the rest of the business is seen to be worth just £3.8bn.
It seems to me to be a win for both Flutter and Fox but I guess we will have to see what Flutter make of the judgement and how the markets judge this news on Monday.
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2022/11/02/flutter-entertainment-an-attractive-long-term-bet/
Hi CJ39, I agree with your sentiment regarding Flutter. There are several imminent events that may provide the catalyst for the shares to rise sustainably and materially from here.
In addition to the trading update on 9th Nov that you've mentioned, there is the Flutter Investors' Day event in New York on 16th Nov. Also, the conclusion of the arbitration case with FoxBet is any day now. Whichever way the case goes, the financial impact is mooted, given that so much froth has been blown from sports betting valuation. Nevertheless, once that is out of the way, I can see the shares to climb steadily from current levels. Longer term, there is always that boogey man which is the government white paper lurking in the background.
I have been averaging down my holding all the way to its recent low, and I'm holding it for 2023 when its sports betting turns profitable for the year.
I'm not a betting man at all (other than betting on the house), and therefore have no user experience of any of the betting apps, neither Flutter's nor others'. But I know in this highly competitive environment, a gambling company lives or dies by how good their apps' user experience is.
So, I've a question for you, how good is Flutter's apps? How is it when compared with the competition?
I understand that in the USA the user experience for sports betting apps has been universally underwhelming, unless things have improved lately.
As someone who is really interested in sports betting and bets a lot, I have good spells and bad spells and the 3 month period between 01/07/2022 - 30/09/2022 was a difficult 3 months on the betting for punters. I remember earlier in the year when Flutter announced unfavourable betting results one quarter it tied in with the fact I had a really profitable time. But I was struggling in these 3 months, I am sure other punters struggled too.
But add to that Entain's 3rd quarter update on 03/10/2022, they announced positive results in every area of their business and let's be honest Flutter is a giant in comparison with Entain. Flutter's business is outstanding, growing worldwide and focused online/digitally rather than the outdated betting shops. It is high quality sustainable earnings.
Sports betting is huge and online casino, poker, slots, bingo is massive too, no matter if there is a cost of living crisis the business will be barely effected, people who like to bet will keep betting.
Today's drop in share price is a real gift for people IMO, third quarter results are due next Wednesday and I really see Flutter's share price rising steadily from these levels. To me it feels cheap right now, I believe Flutter's share price deserves to be into the £130s. I'm not massively invested here as I like to spread my shares in a number of companies I trust but Flutter is one seriously impressive company.
My prediction is for the share price to be approx £125 by the end of next week - feel free to call me a clown and clueless if I am wrong.
This is from the Daily Mail today:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11293563/Nadine-Dorries-anger-crackdown-gambling-industry-delayed-FIFTH-time.html
Nadine Dorries' anger as crackdown on gambling industry is 'delayed for a FIFTH time'
...
Former culture secretary Nadine Dorries last night criticised her successor after sources claimed reform to the UK’s gambling industry is being delayed for a fifth time.
Michelle Donelan this week refused to commit to publishing a White Paper on betting laws before Christmas, telling colleagues it ‘needs a lot of work’.
But Mrs Dorries, who oversaw the review until last month, said: ‘The reforms have already been through Cabinet sign-off prior to the new PM taking office. I have no idea what the delay can possibly be. They need to crack on with this stuff.’
...
before buying in here as I want to see how that will effect the business. But from what I read this weekend I’m not so sure the White Paper review is going to be published. Liz Truss has said she doesn’t want the government to tell people how to live their life’s, she doesn’t want a nanny state which it looked like we were under Boris.
Having really gone over the accounts and trading statements I think it’s time to buy into this now at under £100.
From the sounds of it Flutter don’t believe any recommendations made in the White Paper would cause that much of a negative impact as they have already done so much when it comes to safer gambling. But on top of that, unlike 888 and William Hill who’s main business is in the UK, Flutter have such an amazing global business. The market is strong and will only grow stronger, it’s high quality sustainable earnings which converts straight into cash and it’s so prominently digital unlike other bookmakers which cuts down massively on costs. There is definitely loads more positive value and expectation buying in at this price than negative value. It’s always hard to know when to buy in but I think any price under £100 will be a strong medium and long term investment.
1. Will it be a joint listing on Nasdaq of flutter OR Will they spin off part of Fanduel and therefore help the brand by having its own listing.
2. Will they announce on the US cap markets day OR will they announce earlier - more elegant the former BUT rules and regs might determine the latter has to happen. In which case it might be announced soon.
My personal belief is that probably better to spin off a pure play Fanduel as would get a higher valuation and make the investment decision a lot easier.
Has the company ever alluded to which would be better
Thoughts ?
"The question now is, "Who else will make money?"
Looks like people are beginning to notice how undervalued GAN is.
Just interesting from bberg ..
All updated post figures
26 analysts averaging 13378p target price but within
Morgan stanley 15600
Jeffries 12900
Citi 15000
Investec 15600
Peel hunt 14500
Well Fargo 12000
Barclays 13800
88% positive
Analysts are not always correct but enough of them seem to think there is a lot further to go
Thx Mr Gewilla, didn’t know about the mediation October date - thank you
Staying high level ..
Government paper U.K. delayed - overhanging but don’t know when issued
End October for Fanduel mediation result (as you say)
Nov 8th California result of runners and riders (they said on call)
Nov 16th US cap markets day … (I think they will update then on the US listing)
I think they might have upgraded this time but need to keep an eye on U.K.
They said the profit Q2 was after all costs and even ifrs 17 (I think) stock option charges … that is fully loaded !
The figure I read from Entain was an upgraded expection of the size of the sports betting market being $35bn a year (any other supporting numbers ???) .. if you work these numbers through at I think they said 17% or 18% ebitda margin … the upside next few months and years massively outweighs the down side. Reasons to get very excited are very high. I would just joint list the whole thing on Nasdaq. If you were to list new this on Nasdaq now the value would be massively more than £20bn. Just my view relative to other US businesses which are far less exciting. This is new, exciting, under held US funds, a huge British success with massive market share with limited competition in a massive massive market….I think a lot more buyers than sellers next few months as investors read the tea leaves
The bottom was recently 13/7/22 £7.60 showing well down in ( W ) from transfer in date summer 2021.
14% spike 12/8/22 mention next day in Saturdays mail . ( Good news they say )
The high was 16/7/2020 Covid year @ £17.20
CS, your questions are good but unanswerable, except by the board. Will FLTR list 10% of Fan Duel in New York? Who knows? They said they intended to back in 2020, until the row blew up with Skybet over the cost of SB's option to increase their FanDuel holding. These results say that negotiations are continuing, while the arbitration hearing is in progress, and with an arbitration decision announcement expected in October. Is it a coincidence that FLTR plans a Capital Markets Day in November? I couldn't possibly comment, but my nose is twitching a little.
Suspicious minds have much cud to chew over these facts. Perhaps more interesting (to me) is that American investors have been very suspicious of any bookies ability to ever generate real profits in the US - witness the halving of SP's generally in the past 12 months. However, based on today's results virtually every US gambling stock has jumped on the real news that, for FLTR, serious cash profits in the US within 12 months, are clearly in view on the horizon.
The question now is, "Who else will make money?" Fan Duel has 51% of the market. Entain another 24%. That leaves every man and his donkey to fight over the remaining 25% and there sure ain't enough to feed all of them. I believe we can expect a major consolidation over the next 24 months as many of the remaining public betting companies either get taken over for pennies, to acquire their 3% market share, or else go bust.
It reminds me of the historic story of the US car manufacturing industry: At the end of WW1, there were over 2,000 companies there making cars. By the late 1930's there were less than 10 and by the 1950's there were just 3. What took 30 years to play out with cars, will, imho, play out in less than 5 years with the betting plc's. Markets move much faster today.
What about the Gambling Review here in the UK? The government has laboured mightily for several years to produce almost nothing. Yet another postponement has just occurred, while we await a new PM. This old cynic takes the view that the government's revenues from betting are far too large to jeopardise in any remotely meaningful way. So the Review will be an exercise in tossing enough small bones to the well-financed PR campaign planned by the anti-gambling lobby to let the media make a fuss and then quickly move on to the next scandal/ministerial disaster/inflation update/whatever. Will UK plc shares fall, when it comes out? Almost certainly, but not by much and certainly not for long. The profits will remain and will remain valuable.
Where do people stand on this in terms of investing in Flutter right now when we know the Gambling Commission white paper is ready to be released once the government get themselves sorted? The white paper is bound to have a negative impact on UK gambling market, so is it really worth investing right now?
Thx Mr Gewilla - your post was very helpfu
I have done significant reading now and I think think this jn an outstanding structural growth story in Americas back yard !!
I own a lot more than when I asked about New York.
Surely a US listing to be announced alongside capital markets day in November ? How do they answer that question today ?
Quick question - how long will it only be two licenses in NY and how long do current licenses last ?
Thank you
The thing about common sense is that it's actually quite rare in most people's experience. More reading, much more reading is required on your part, CS. Had you properly researched betting in the US, you would know that each state is in total control of the gambling in its' jurisdiction. New York was firmly against legalised betting until this time last year when the state ran out of cash. At which point it turned 180 degrees and legalised it, with effect from . . . (care to guess, CS?) Yep, w.e.f. January 2022. And who was at the front of the queue on Day 1? Yep, it was Flutter with their application papers.
At the risk of being a bit tough on you, there's a old saying, "It is better to keep your tongue still and be thought foolish by others, than to open your mouth and confirm their opinions." Keep researching, CS. This stock will make you a lot of money over the next five years.
Mixed but outlook is encouraging considering economy.
"outperformed" after an abysmal run!!!
Let's just hope that tomorrow it doesn't turn out to be "It's better to travel than to arrive"!!!
Ahead of Q2 earnings report tomorrow, Flutter shares have outperformed its gambling sector peers in the past few days. Some investors must have a good vibe about the earnings report, or may have be heard something positive in the grapevine about the arbitration versus SkyBet that is concluding in the US?
Care to share?
I don't understand your question? They are the biggest US operator via their Fan Duel tie up.