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Hi Justanotherbot,
looks like you are quoting me from one year ago.
Well, at least Nick has said in a credible way that they made comprehensive efforts to address the supply issues.
But I had another look at the operating costs and the G&A expenses compared to the revenue even in the best quarter last year: not profitable - and even less chance of profitability at the current low vanadium prices. I'd be happy if the next half year numbers prove me wrong.
But I am holding on to this because the Feasibilty Study is due this year, and with it there is hope of progress with the mine. According to the PFS when constructed it will make money even at very low vanadium prices. It may cost more than the originally planned $100 million, just lets hope Nick doesn't want to make the mine as sophisticated as his byproduct studies but keeps it simple and cheap.
Hg64 - gets the comment of the day for the FAR board - last two paragraphs are a check mate. Nicky boy needs to get himself together and make this plant profitable.
"So my guess for the end of 2023 is anywhere between the current s/p and 25p.
My reasons:
With delays due to supply chain issues FAR still has steadily modernised the current production as planned, so I am confident the final modernisation step, the nickel processing facility, will be completed in Q1/23.
But I doubt they can reach their production and profit goals. In the interim report Sept 15th they explained poor financial performance with
- logistical issues due to the war,
- “increased trade debtor balances” (i.e. buyers didn’t pay yet) while the company paid for the purchased material in cash “in order to secure a flow of concentrates”,
- “loss payable provision … with respect to product sales that have suffered negative market price movements”
So my guess is 2023 will not be a loss making year but a year of continued hope to improve profitability. At least the improved operations will keep the company afloat without need for further cash raises, and that will keep the share price from falling further."
Totally agree, this business model of buying material to process has proven so unprofitable for various reasons, like not enough material delivered (production at 30%), bought in too expensive and sold end product at a loss after vanadium price drop, producing for 2 years on expensive diesel before finally swapping to natural gas, transport issues...
And after 3 years still didn't buy a used excavator, dumptruck, caterpillar shovel and a grinder to start getting their stuff out of the ground.
Instead Nick spends money on studies how to sell a byproduct of the future mine to the tyre industry, hopefully.
Good enough for me to buy in today.
FAR’s compelling investment case, said the broker, which has a risked fair value estimate of 33p.
This actually went from 11p to 42p in March - April in 2021,
Let’s go
Amazing how much it moves on small volume. If any big buys came in this would fly
Small amount of buying and this moves!
Life in the old girl yet!? Looks like news inbound?
Full ask paid....almost
Balasausqandiq is a best-in-class vanadium deposit with significant by-product credits capable of generating negative costs of production that underpin FAR’s compelling investment case, said the broker, which has a risked fair value estimate of 33p.
From the last feasibility study produced the cost of building mine was around 100 million which is cheap for a project of such high NPV. So once the feasibility is out and as long as the economics haven't shifted too much we will have a very attractive mining prospect.
I agree that we need a more dynamic leader to run this ship. Sir Mick hopefully gets that role.
Good luck
They can't just dig it out if the ground, they still have to fund and build a major processing operation infrastructure, that's going to cost a very big wedge of cash, they will will need a full feasibility study to attract the extra funding.
Come on
They should hire a proper CEO to run company. Nick Bridgen should fire himself.
Is the price increase a small rerating after the report still only have a market cap of £25m, no idea what a good feasibility study would do to the market cap I know will still be in the ground but like oil they should have a good reserves ready to extract
Feasibility, there’s stuff in the ground… dig it out process and sell… can’t believe they are still buying in unprocessed ore?! but im no expert!
Fingers crossed
2023 final results RNS out this morning.
Mixed bag - but what did stand out is vision blue have converted their CLN into ordinary shares, taking their stake of FAR to 23%.
Some results not at levels that were expected, but I think that was a given per the info in previous RNS’s.
Will be averaging down when possible.
Random RNS didn’t tell us anything
160% increase in pentoxide but still only 81T. Very small operation that doesn't seem to be growing.
Hello all, a few days ago I was listening to the radio about the AIM index and how quite a few companies are delisting from that index. On this program, A CEO of a UK biotech firm was bemoaning valuations and how his company had reached important milestones yet the share price had hardly moved. This firm has delisted from AIM and is now listing in the US.
This concerns me for FAR. If FAR does reach important milestones: the feasibility study confirms what we expect, if the price of vanadium goes up, if the company starts to post good balance sheet figures, but yet the share price only goes to say 50p, then could we see a delisting? Vision Blue understands the Canadian market.
I know of course that FAR are not listed on AIM but they are listed on the main market so there should be more money there but big companies like ARM have dismissed the FTSE and headed to the US.
What are your thoughts on this?
Sorry - I meant to say that I have 'no particular expertise....' .... doh!