SP10 Apr 2024 09:37
Long term holder (now down 60+%), so can feel the general pain. I have particular expertise but after a few years of following this one I had a few thoughts on what is moving this down:
1) Putin. From an increase in direct costs to the business, to an increase in 'risk' the invasion of Ukraine has knocked Central Asian stocks across the board. I am convinced that if the war end FAR would jump 30-40% in a day.
2) The Feasibility Study. We are all here for the Big Project and any delay or increase in cost hits us hard. We just have to hope/pray they get it done on the revised timetable which I think late 2024.
3) The Price of Vanadium. Vandadium prices have crashed over the last two years which I think is due to the economic weakness of China (who buys the V to make steel with). With a low price end product the company is just valued less. And you can see this in the price of the competition too (such as Bushveld) which has bombed this last 12months. In the absence of substantive news it is the price of V which is killing us.
I am still relatively hopeful on FAR, the potential is great and Sir Mick has a good track record. But obviously, until China's economy recovers V pricing will be depressed regardless of anything else. However, if FAR can get the feasibility project over the line and it is positive then I still think this one will 5x within 3-5 years. Fingers crossed....