Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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They will need the McGregor's flame ******ant shorts !
Theoretically it should be if the Nomad is up to scratch ... it’s their job to police (in effect its self regulation) but they often have competing agendas themselves.
Can’t remember Where I read it but apparently AIM is more regulated then the main market. They tidying up there act to become more respectable.
Anything over 30p I’m happy, great info from many kudos to you all for the time and research you have given the investment
Nicely structured post and put TBTT back in his box. I thought he wasn't frequenting the bb anymore. More bullsh*t....
18:17, good example of decent discussion under way about differing views.
17:43, unfortunate example of a poster trying to prevent proper debate.
There’s only one thing we can learn from this post and that is that TigerBytheTail drastically struggles to properly value a company. It would be as advisable to disregard any investing advice he/she provides, not just on EUA but on the stock market in general as he/she will likely lose you a lot of money.
16:54, tiger, i think AIM regulation share your curiosity.
re 16:54, #1 ...
(a) ... perhaps hence the lack of a properly costed feasibility study?
(b) but maybe puntersfriend would be keen to work there. he’d fit in.
Brookkers - common practice apparently, good for HL, but sounds like they are saying it irrespective of orders placed?
Have a good evening
Evening DarkEnergy
Tbh it never occurred to me that my broker could be lending my shares out !
I wonder what I will find if I check my Barclays terms and conditions...!
@my_username "clarify the relationship" :)))
TigerBytheTail -
Another very important point:
Impala bought 15% in Waterberg in late 2017 for $30m (=$190m for the whole thing) - when Pd price was $700 / oz - Rh was lower than Pd today.
That's basically betting on long-term appreciation of metal - hardly any margin at those price levels. Basket price is radically different today - and in an M&A scenario that 15% is worth way more than $30m (even tho PGM's mcap is $100m) - i think it is safe to say it is at least 2-3x more valuable in an M&A scenario than in 2017 (= prob worth $500m+ in an M&A scenario).
Taking PGM as a comp - this would suggest MT shld be valued much much higher than any of your estimates.
TigerBytheTail -
1. Re building a mine - key difference is open pit vs underground. Things about health problems etc - are these not applicable to South Africa too and more of a sector issue?
2. Speaking of capital - maybe 15 years ago yes - however in current environment South Africa is really not looking good on many levels (junk status, physical security issues which are huge, possibly more downgrades in the pipeline, massive budget deficit, very high debt loan - in a few years you could be looking at a Sovereign default), while Russia's financial position is stable. Check out the rates Russian corporates are able to finance themselves at - seeing a lot of 5-7% (in RUB) cost of capital and cheaper in USD for those able to access the USD market. That's not to say Russia is the perfect place from capital access / issues mentioned in point 1, and legal possession - however big miners operate in the country relatively smoothly. Besides - if the asset gets acquired by large miner - they can always call up RDIF to take a stake to alleviate a lot of the 'Russia risk'
You're talking as if we are comparing Nevada and Congo - in my view question of 'which is easier to deal with' comes down to expertise of the individuals. For someone/company who has worked their whole career in South Africa and knows nothing about Russia except that it's cold and there's a lot of bears - South Africa would most certainly be the preferred location. For someone with experience / connections / a real link to Russia - there have been a lot of successful investments in Russia despite certain challenges in the country.
3. I don't know enough to comment
4. No one is saying it is a slam dunk with flanks - but there is a strong possibility there is substantial value in them
We entered suspension in a very different world - Pd was @ 3k, physical metal deficit was massive - now we are dealing with an unprecedented global crisis, riots in the US - and a very high level of general uncertainty and negativity. Pd price remains solid @ 2k (good chance to head back to 3k once this all blows over) - let's see how the company wait out all these global crises in suspension and hopefully overcome the challenges. Medium-term fundamentals remain (very) solid.
While we are debating valuation, what is your view of WK?
I didnt realise you were on Jackanory.
1. “Why do you imagine building a mine in the frozen tundra of the Kola Peninsula will be cheap?”
2. “You need specialised tracked transport even to get across the permafrost”
3. “Attracting any kind of a workforce to work there is also a huge problem”
4. “only the most desperate drunks are prepared to work”
5. “It would be easier to obtain capital for South Africa than for Russia”
6. “Everybody understands how corrupt Russia is, and how insecure legal possession is”
7. “There seems to be an assumption on here that Norilsk Nickel will agree to process ore from a third party, and to do it cheap. I know them well. They won't”
8. “Why do people on here keep assuming that the flanks are mineralised?!? There is no proof that they are, or that they will be commercial to mine”
9. “The paid for broker note was the most ridiculous ramp I've ever read”
10. “As I said, MT is worth a $50m to $100m valuation - on a good day”
11. “I'm just puzzled”
Well:
1. Because it has been done, approx. $300M (link below)
2. That is why the transport was created. Mining / transporting goods in permafrost conditions from all the way back has been going on for over 50 years (linked below)
3. Mining is the largest form of employment there and has never been an issue. There are also rail networks like other remote places of work (link below).
4. Stereotyping but even if it were true they still need employment? We have had drunks and crack heads running the UK' biggest institutions for a long time (linked below)
5. Blatant lie. Russia is about twice as well funded than SA (link below)
6. Companies / property / possessions are only seized when there is debt with no plan in place for repayment (link below)
7. If it makes business sense, they would do it. Have you ever heard of a company say “I don’t want profit”?
8. We state what has been RNS’d which is based on the Russian Reserves & Resources Reporting System (link below)
9. Everything is paid for. It was done independently. Companies work for money and do not sacrifice their future as a company to tell lies in reports. If anything a company with something to hide would not be commissioning a report to expose them. (common sense)
10. That would be about $5/oz. previous sales were up to $214/ before favourable conditions.
11. Yes
Links:
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2016/10/mining-company-builds-new-railway-kola-peninsula
http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/cpc/CPC3-65.pdf
https://geocryology.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/permafrost-consideration-for-mines.pdf
https://www.bakermckenzie.com/-/media/files/insight/publications/2016/06/doing-business-in-russia-2016/bk_russia_doingbusiness_2016.pdf
https://www.statista.com/chart/19839/biggest-miners-among-countries/
https://www.drugrehab.com/addiction/common-professions/
https://www.icmm.com/en-gb/society-and-the-economy/role-of-mining-in-national-economies/mining-contribution-index
https://www.intercontinentalmining.com/russian-re
Tbbt you claim to know Norlisk 'well'. Please clarify the nature of your relationship...no need for an RNS. Look forward to hearing from you x
Brookers, ftse
thanks for the correction - I think Ron Wynn is probably American where it is likely common practice (among other unpleasant things)
Tiger if we’re struggling to find a buyer why did they mention potential buyers in the the rns and why are we still suspended pending clarification and also why have we not triggered the sinosteel contract. 10m? Do me favour
TBTT - wow thanks, maybe contact the BoD and let them know the big mistake they are making ...
Easy TBTT........great story.
Just checked HL terms and conditions which state that 'your shares will not be lent to third parties' ...
Hi Erixlie!
This might be of interest to you:
1. Why do you imagine building a mine in the frozen tundra of the Kola Peninsula will be cheap? It's ridiculously high cost. You need specialised tracked transport even to get across the permafrost. (I've been to Monchegorsk). Attracting any kind of a workforce to work there is also a huge problem. By and large, only the most desperate drunks are prepared to work in such a frozen, dark, and toxic hellhole. Almost everybody in Monchegorsk develops lung problems (TB etc.) after a few years.
2. It would be easier to obtain capital for South Africa than for Russia. Everybody understands how corrupt Russia is, and how insecure legal possession is. All it takes is one phone call from the top and the courts swing into action to do their master's bidding. (That's not to deny that SA has problems, by the way).
3. There seems to be an assumption on here that Norilsk Nickel will agree to process ore from a third party, and to do it cheap. I know them well. They won't.
4. Why do people on here keep assuming that the flanks are mineralised?!? There is no proof that they are, or that they will be commercial to mine. The paid for broker note was the most ridiculous ramp I've ever read.
As I said, MT is worth a $50m to $100m valuation - on a good day. And it will be very hard to find a buyer, especially in these times. Some of the figures quoted on this board have been unheard of absurd. If (the all powerful) Norilsk Nickel wants it, then the price will be more like $10m "go away" money.
I'm just puzzled how AIM came to value this company so crazily. Is it because PIs prefer a nice fantasy bedtime story to doing their maths homework properly? Or why?
ftsedow - Ron Wynn disagrees:
This is completely untrue. As others mentioned, you must request a certificate of your stock in order to be in possession and keep them from being borrowed. Most brokers do not do this because the make a percentage for the transaction. Otherwise, with a fully funded account you can collect these interest rates/rebates yourself. Your broker is the holder of your position and reserves the right to loan your shares at any given time. This is written in your brokerage agreement and if not readily available you can give them a call.
Setting a high limit order gives the clearing firm or third party that your broker may or may be under contract with the ability to see where your position will possibly be sold and gives them the opportunity to continually sell and buy back, some times hundreds of times in a matter of minutes, your position. With high frequency trading this often happens from algorithms or a “black box”.
Furthermore, there are plenty of contractors and promoters working the chat rooms and forums telling people falsely that if they set high limit orders they will protect their positions. But actually, they are misleading them in order to scope their possible exits for the reasons previously mentioned and put selling pressure on the order book.
Many argue that these practices are a conflict of interest and rightfully so. Beware people on reputable sites like this that carelessly give you false information because they may have different motives than “trying to help”, especially if they think it doesn’t affect your position.