The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Here's how.. Again from Simply Wall street..
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Eurasia Mining.
AIM:EUA Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 5.8%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year GB Government Bond Rate 0.5%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for AIM:EUA
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year GB Govt Bond Rate 0.5%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6.1%
Metals and Mining Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.80
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 0.801) * (1 + (1 - 19.0%) (0.024%))] 0.867
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 0.867
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 0.53% + (0.867 * 6.07%) 5.79%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for AIM:EUA using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Eurasia Mining is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
AIM:EUA DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (GBP, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 5.79%)
2020 6.72 Analyst x1 6.35
2021 236.2 Analyst x1 211.05
2022 414.62 Est @ 75.54% 350.2
2023 634.54 Est @ 53.04% 506.61
2024 871.14 Est @ 37.29% 657.43
2025 1,099.89 Est @ 26.26% 784.63
2026 1,303.82 Est @ 18.54% 879.2
2027 1,475.11 Est @ 13.14% 940.26
2028 1,613.11 Est @ 9.36% 971.94
2029 1,721.31 Est @ 6.71% 980.37
Present value of next 5 years cash flows £6,288
AIM:EUA DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= £1,721.313 x (1 + 0.53%) ÷ (5.79% - 0.53% ) £32,894.15
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
£32,894 ÷ (1 + 5.79%)10 £18,734.71
AIM:EUA Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= £6,288 + £18,735 £25,022.71
Equity Value per Share
(GBP) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= £25,023 / 2,725 £9.18
AIM:EUA Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (GBP) From above. £9.18
Current discount Discount to share price of £0.072
= -1 x (£0.072 - £9.18) / £9.18 99.2%
(all bets null & void if no return from suspension)
lamtree 0.25p
Spikeyj 0.75p
jarosg 0.81p
Aubrey 3.1p
Buckeye 3.6p
Mincho 4.7p
wasarunner 4.9p
D_W_Fleas 5.6p
Harts 8.6p
Moneymaker2015 9.8p
Krispy 10p
Antha 10p
TheBeastofBodmin 10p
Musso74 10.8p
bluenotred 11p
Pompeyrod 11.7p
B1ll 12p
stockdale 12p
DIMITRYsCOUSIN 12p
belstaff 12.2p
tcxman 12.2p
drthomas 15p
Thesharpercarper 15p
8thOctrecovery 15.2p
ItsAllBalls 16p
squashman 17.5p
Dale02 18.9p
kuffer72 19p
mornington-oz 20.8p
Theroller 21.5p
Boosh 21.6p
Tillywhiz 22p
Herbie53 25p
bry4n 27p
Torham 29.75
lbye 30p
D0berman 30.6p
Alansugareatyour 32p
Romek 32p
Illbetabuck2 33p
Emmystar 34p
Watson003 34.5p
Oilandga 36p
avo333 37p
littlebricks 62p
Seadogsteve 72.4p
GeckoLovesGreed 80p+
Chrisparker1981 £1.20
chriso66 £1.25
Weathergeek £9.00
DanielC43R £9.18
Pradameinhof 48p
28p for me please.
yes, of course, will add you to an updated list tomorrow. i don’t suppose
you & the equally implausible pradameinhof are related, by any chance?
If you take the closing selling price on this LSE website I'll pick 7.2p as the site will have likely crashed well before close! :-)
Please put me down for 7.37p finish
16.8p close 1st day. Thanks
9.3p for me please.
Thanks spikeyj, no relationship with anyone here. Apologies if I appear implausible. My handle was simply set up in the hope that 2020 would be a very special year for the team I support - perhaps that is not to be now but there are far more important things happening out there . 28p is a hope and please take in the spirit intended.
6.35 for me Ian
Thank you for the inclusion Ian, I appreciate your time.
(all bets null & void if no return from suspension)
lamtree 0.25p
Spikeyj 0.75p
jarosg 0.81p
Aubrey 3.1p
Buckeye 3.6p
Mincho 4.7p
wasarunner 4.9p
D_W_Fleas 5.6p
MarkA8178 6.35p
Numbers 7.37p
Harts 8.6p
Smiler888 9.3p
Moneymaker2015 9.8p
Krispy 10p
Antha 10p
TheBeastofBodmin 10p
RR1889 10.7p
Musso74 10.8p
bluenotred 11p
nathdomb 11p
Pompeyrod 11.7p
B1ll 12p
stockdale 12p
DIMITRYsCOUSIN 12p
belstaff 12.2p
tcxman 12.2p
drthomas 15p
Thesharpercarper 15p
8thOctrecovery 15.2p
ItsAllBalls 16p
pakstarr 16.8p
squashman 17.5p
Dale02 18.9p
kuffer72 19p
mornington-oz 20.8p
Theroller 21.5p
Boosh 21.6p
Tillywhiz 22p
Herbie53 25p
bry4n 27p
lfc2020 28p
Torham 29.75
lbye 30p
D0berman 30.6p
Alansugareatyour 32p
Romek 32p
Illbetabuck2 33p
Emmystar 34p
Watson003 34.5p
Oilandga 36p
avo333 37p
Pradameinhof 48p
littlebricks 62p
Seadogsteve 72.4p
GeckoLovesGreed 80p+
Chrisparker1981 £1.20
chriso66 £1.25
Weathergeek £9.00
DanielC43R £9.18
Took liberty inserted myself, cheers spikeyj
(all bets null & void if no return from suspension)
lamtree 0.25p
Spikeyj 0.75p
jarosg 0.81p
Aubrey 3.1p
Buckeye 3.6p
Mincho 4.7p
wasarunner 4.9p
D_W_Fleas 5.6p
MarkA8178 6.35p
Numbers 7.37p
Harts 8.6p
Smiler888 9.3p
Moneymaker2015 9.8p
Krispy 10p
Antha 10p
TheBeastofBodmin 10p
RR1889 10.7p
Musso74 10.8p
bluenotred 11p
nathdomb 11p
Pompeyrod 11.7p
B1ll 12p
stockdale 12p
DIMITRYsCOUSIN 12p
belstaff 12.2p
tcxman 12.2p
drthomas 15p
Thesharpercarper 15p
8thOctrecovery 15.2p
ItsAllBalls 16p
pakstarr 16.8p
squashman 17.5p
Dale02 18.9p
kuffer72 19p
Aandi 20p
mornington-oz 20.8p
Theroller 21.5p
Boosh 21.6p
Tillywhiz 22p
Herbie53 25p
bry4n 27p
lfc2020 28p
Torham 29.75
lbye 30p
D0berman 30.6p
Alansugareatyour 32p
Romek 32p
Illbetabuck2 33p
Emmystar 34p
Watson003 34.5p
Oilandga 36p
avo333 37p
Pradameinhof 48p
littlebricks 62p
Seadogsteve 72.4p
GeckoLovesGreed 80p+
Chrisparker1981 £1.20
chriso66 £1.25
Weathergeek £9.00
DanielC43R £9.18
8 days to go
(all bets null & void if no return from suspension)
lamtree 0.25p
Spikeyj 0.75p
jarosg 0.81p
Aubrey 3.1p
Buckeye 3.6p
Mincho 4.7p
wasarunner 4.9p
D_W_Fleas 5.6p
MarkA8178 6.35p
Numbers 7.37p
Harts 8.6p
Smiler888 9.3p
Moneymaker2015 9.8p
Krispy 10p
Antha 10p
TheBeastofBodmin 10p
RR1889 10.7p
Musso74 10.8p
bluenotred 11p
nathdomb 11p
Pompeyrod 11.7p
B1ll 12p
stockdale 12p
DIMITRYsCOUSIN 12p
belstaff 12.2p
tcxman 12.2p
drthomas 15p
Thesharpercarper 15p
8thOctrecovery 15.2p
ItsAllBalls 16p
pakstarr 16.8p
squashman 17.5p
Dale02 18.9p
kuffer72 19p
Aandi 20p
mornington-oz 20.8p
Theroller 21.5p
Boosh 21.6p
Tillywhiz 22p
Herbie53 25p
bry4n 27p
lfc2020 28p
Torham 29.75
lbye 30p
D0berman 30.6p
Alansugareatyour 32p
Romek 32p
Illbetabuck2 33p
Emmystar 34p
Watson003 34.5p
Oilandga 36p
avo333 37p
Pradameinhof 48p
littlebricks 62p
Seadogsteve 72.4p
GeckoLovesGreed 80p+
Chrisparker1981 £1.20
chriso66 £1.25
Weathergeek £9.00
DanielC43R £9.18
Please could you put me down for 75p. Thanks.
There's a few regular posters missing off the list. Be interesting to see Ballbags prediction. Exactly the same as Lamtree I would say.
Good night all, and let's see where next week takes us
22p
GLA
45p....
Note my 45p is based on return to AIM with Asset sale of MT. Should we return with Flanks, 15p....
Return to market with sale of MT agreed and JV for WK.
Dividend 46p.
GLA.
put me down for 44 please
0.90p with full sale. 0.40p without sale
35p for me
I am joking with the £9 figure..That is a fair value worked out by simply wall street over 5 years projected growth. Thought it would be fun to scare the shorts haha.
Realistically, put me down for 54p if it a sale. 15p if we are going alone but have the funding in place.