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Probably worth keeping in mind that although there are plenty of studies saying that we have ridiculous amounts of metal in the ground in out licences areas and the surrounding area (where we do not yet have licences and therefore cannot be sold by us), there are an equal amount of studies that have tested the extent to which it would be worthwhile mining given that the associated costs would not allow the level of profit the buyers would like. For example, a few studies have assessed different methods of washing the metals metals to try to see whether a cost effective solution could justify mining for the more difficult to reach metals. The research tends to range from no - depends on the make up of the metal as implementing new methods costs money. These were relatively old studies though and with the increased metal process then those results may be different and those metals that previously would not be mined could be attributive. If you want to read them yourselves then they are all online (just run a literature search), but at this point the BOD have done all of the leg work and told you what we have to sell.
I would therefore ONLY take the numbers given by the company to make your valuations (i.e. the experts who are running the business and selling it for us). The numbers given at MT are 15Moz pd equiv (maybe 19Moz with the exclusivity for the surrounding 5km). I work that out to be 80p-120p. There is obviously a lot of speculation about the role of AP increasing resources and the possibility of another licence which would be incredible and blow out valuations out of the water, but until that is RNSd by the company then we can only assume that we are selling 15-19 Moz Pd equiv (and potentially the rest of the company too). We can only sell what we have, and what we have is in the RNS. I can sell my own house, but I can't go around putting for sale signs up in my neighbours garden and expect the profits from that too.
The numbers have not changed since last year when the flanks, potential sale of assets etc. was announced where everyone bought in at 1-3p realising they were onto a winner and are now sitting several 1000% better off. Ultimately, until the numbers are changed by the BOD via RNS (which I actually think has a high chance of happening!!!) then I would not assume sky high profits. Still an easy 4-5 bags if buying now IMO even without any resource increases or new licences. It's an easy buy for making profits in a reasonably small time frame with the lowest risk that I can see on AIM, but if you're expecting 30 bags from here via a sale without a huge hike in resources/ licences then I think you will be disappointed.
If we do get increased resources then David has an excellent piece valuing it here: https://twitter.com/DShox1/status/1290553825170984961
If we even 20 bag from here with no increased resources or licences I will buy a car of your choice and try to eat it.
Have a good weekend folks.
Alta (Deramper at
Deramper at 80-120.
lol. bye
This disclaimer will have us all forever guessing. No need to place the disclaimer in the FSP RNS if they were not looking to apply for the additional numbers quoted imho -
"In relation to the additional 25Moz of PGMs (those resources in addition to the 15Moz contained in the Mochetundra Project and its flanks) it should be noted that there is no guarantee that all these additional 25Moz of resources will prove to be economic or that Eurasia will be granted a licence over all of these 25Moz of PGM resources."
GLA
It was this man, who first brought up the larger figures during an interview, almost as if he wanted his share of a payment from such things -
"ALEXEI CHURAKOV
Strategic advisor to the board
Mr. Churakov is a former Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley senior investment banker specialized in the mining sector. He has a background in cross-border M&A transactions operating from Moscow, London and New York. Alexei brings his extensive experience in mining M&A as well as maintaining a hands on approach at operational level."
I guess we'll just have to wait and see exactly what happens.
GLA
Interesting read, but saying you can only use figures that have been RNS’d as EUA owning them and then saying use 15m oz in your valuation is very contradictory seeing as we haven’t been granted the additional 13m oz licence yet.
I posted a breakdown yesterday on here of the average time period for each application. Working off the average, the additional 13m oz will likely drop towards the end of Sept (assuming that it is actually granted). Using your logic though, which I agree with to a degree, you should even be factoring in the 13m oz at the present time.
Very presumptuous saying an easy 4-5 bags if buying in now, considering the only broker note we’ve seen on the matter (and released on EUA’s website) indicated a value of 54p, inclusive of the flanks.
Although Eurasia do not currently hold licences to surrounding areas and even if we are currently not applying for these, there has to be an added value factor to any buyer due to the proximity.
shouldn’t* be factoring
Something we know is definitely happening is this, as CKE have been contracted in to complete it -
"A Detailed Project Design Report was contracted to Central Kola Expedition and approved by Murmansk Nedra in October 2019. The report sets out the statutory work required to complete a detailed Feasibility Study (Russian standard equivalent of a Definitive Feasibility Study) and a revised reserves statement building on the existing Feasibility Study and state approved reserves."
GLA
Broker notes aren't worth the paper they are written on imo
Broker notes are indicative based upon set criteria being met. They show a companies NPV, which is how most developers estimate a projects worth and decide whether or not to proceed.
Detailed ones are very useful tools. Many people just look at the ‘valuation’ and get disgruntled if the share price doesn’t match it.
Moneymaker,
I base all my thoughts on the stuff below, particularly the last quote increasing the production plan since they are from the annual report and the FSP RNS. Don't see it as contradictory as it is in an RNS and wouldn't get signed off by NOMAD if it was false information.
Mac,
Fully agree that we have a ton in the pipeline which could unlock some of that additional 21Moz but for me until we have applications RNS'd then I'm not including it into my valuation to avoid ramping to new investors.
“The total amount controlled by Eurasia and under flanks exclusivity right application is c.15Moz of PGM as per the State Cadastre with an additional c. 4Moz also within the 5km exclusivity area.”
(https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/xjypn1x)
“As previously announced the application for the flanks areas at Monchetundra received Ministry of Defence approval (see RNS dated 17 December 2019). Approval by the Federal Security Service (FSB), the last remaining federal body, whose approval is required for the flanks licence application, was also subsequently confirmed to the Company by Sevzapnedra (see RNS dated 9 April 2020). The Directors expect the license to be issued by Sevzapnedra (the regional licensing body) soon as per standard process.”
(https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/xjypn1x)
“MONCHETUNDRA
A fully funded development project; with 15moz palladium dominated PGM resource, it is one of the largest assets globally not owned by a PGM major.
Asset overview:
Ownership: 80%
Operating Partners: Sinosteel, Central Kola Expedition
Region: Murmanskaya Oblast, Russian Kola Peninsula bordering Finland.
Mine type: Open pit
Licensing: Mining license to 2038. Financed via Sinosteel EPCF.
Status: Preparation for production.
Product/Offtake: PGM and base metals concentrate (Palladium dominant, Platinum, Gold, Nickel and Copper).
Infrastructure: Road, Rail, Sea Hub, Power and labour. Close to Finish border
Mine life: >20 years
Target production: 1,000koz at full capacity
Exploration upside: Expanding mineable reserve base via acquisition of adjacent licences.”
(https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/rmom18x_).
Only reason I post any of that is because new investors are going to see this ever increasing nonsense now over £7 sale, shove money in, not get £7 and be annoyed and dismiss peoples research in the future. I know several new investors that are utterly convinced of a £5+ sale and refuse to believe anything else (even though using their own calcs they never get anywhere near £5). I think its utterly wrong because they have invested based on the word of someone else and although I doubt anyone can lose money on this (unless they are short, Sam, or Tom), that blind faith in ramping/ deramping will eventually lead them to get stung.
Great write up. Thank you. Altruistic also. Good to see.
I have never quoted and price figures for a sp at anywhere near that evel, but i will show the numbers that appear in RNS. 40Moz appears in RNS with that disclaimer in the FSP, there is absolutely no reason to include that figure if they were not looking to apply for it, none whatsoever.
Both CKE and AP have been working away, both provide a similar service, it's up to any new investor to research what they do, and then decide what is applicable and what is not.
Exploration is very much happening.
GLA
I have provided the DFS quote from RNS which applies to CKE, who were mentioned last oct.
Here is alexei boucher, our exploration manager, pictured with AP -
https://www.instagram.com/p/B-ZhwV-jEjC/?igshid=e6ceqkq8kpw0
Like i say, any new investor can draw their own conclusions as to what is happening.
GLA
The board are in total control here !
They are going to get the best value for share holders as possible.
place your bets , the wheel is spinning , we just have to wait for it to stop .
no body on this bb can alter that now.
That's exactly right stix, but we can guess what they're up to from what they've provided in RNS and what has appeared on social media.
You don't include figures in a FSP RNS with a disclaimer for no reason. If at least part of those extra figures were not to be applied for, then there would be no reason to include the figures in the FSP RNS.
GLA
For every person that says estimates of £2, £3.50 or even £7.20 are nonsense, I’m willing to bet you’ve all done the calculation to see what that would mean with your holdings
Nitrokev people will want to know how you came to these conclusions, and what your value would be then to come out with this statement that £2+ is nonsense.
I think you missinderstood me, I absolutely don’t think they are nonsense!
I don't think that he said that it was nonsense but that there are people that have said that?
What happens when flanks licenses are confirmed dazaliam, what happens if extra figures appear on top of previously stated FS studies?
There are a few things going on that may add substantial value at certain points.
You would then habe to factor any premium on top of the new trading sp at the time.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens with it all tbh. Either way, it's up from here i would say.
GLA
Mac, I've agreed with every post I've read from you since you always point people to information to help them research so I hope you don't think I was having a dig at you. Just gets my back up seeing sky high valuations and aired that to the BB in general. If even one newcomer decided to go away and read an RNS before investing on the promise of a certain price then I'll consider my post worth it. Benefits people to get into a habit of doing their own research. Maybe that's just the academic in me but I think that's reasonable.
Nitrokev, yep you better believe I've plunked all of the numbers in to see what it would do to my holding lol. £1.50 and I retire at 28. We'll I'd give up the lecturing and stick to my statistics so I'm not too bored. I don't think £2 is nonsense especially if we get all the additional goodies but I do think away up at £7 is. Just my view but maybe I'm in the minority and we will soon find out!
Can't believe I feel like the resident deramper with a 80p - £1.20 target lol. Bring back Frankey and Spikeyj to take this heat.
Anyway. I'm off to the beach.
GLA
Alta
Sorry Nitrokev I completely misread that, happens after spending all reading things on here! Apologies :)
Ha ha it’s fine, I can see how it could be misread
And yeah Nitrokev I'm not one of those people, but I am certainly one of those who has the calculator app open a lot to see what these figures translate to lol. GLA!