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Reference the concern about a hostile takeover if trading resumes soon.
Worth noting that in the rise from 0.5 to 7.2p we didn't see anyone entity amass over 3%, so should anyone attempt to buy 30% of shares in the coming weeks/months it would propel the share price up massively.
Board have decent skin in the game around 25%, with the LTH having sticky hands there isn't the scope for the hostile takeover at a low price.
On the Takeover exemption for 28 days, that relates to 2.6 and the naming of interested parties and intention to make an offer now the FSP triggered. If someone fires in an official bid we will be informed under 2.7 and 28 days apply for them to PUSU (Put up or Shut Up) regarding the bid details. So see a 2.7 RNS and we are in the final stages...
"we are in the final stages..." god I hope so I've worn the carpet out............
just for academic discussion (and clearly not a case scenario I'd like since I'm invested) -
if someone puts a bid at 15p (which is a low ball), and market reopens thereafter and jumps to just under 15p, what's stopping from the bidder in turning hostile and gobbling all the shares at that price range even if the board recommends the bid be rejected?
Just market forces ... heavy buying would jump the price, no?
Er, we won't be selling so how is this 'Someone' going to get all the shares to do this fictitious takeover ?
It would be interesting to know how many holders there are that have sticky hands as a percentage of the total shares. I know the bod have over 20 percent so if there's enough of us too then it would make a hostile taker impossible. I know I wouldn't sell out cheap and a lot of other people wouldn't either. I'm certain the bod wouldn't so that's over 20 percent to start off with.
No. In a takeover where a bid has been announced, it's unlikely buying would outmatch selling in a way that prices will go up. The stock market is influenced by supply/demand as well, and that's how stock prices go up/down. Heavy buying (by institutional scalpers + bidder) accompanied with heavy selling (by people who want to lock in their gains and not wait for the entire sale process to go through, or worried that the bid might be rejected outright without any other bid incoming that might cause heavier selling later on), would commensurately result in a stagnant SP.
Ian_, you make the point that you will not be selling. I won't too, at that price. But we aren't the only one holding EUA shares, and there are many more beyond the BB. I'm sure you remember the times where people were selling off at 3p or 5p at large amounts on this BB - there are some people like these who would at 15p or some low ball figure as well. Sure I do not hope, but given Dana's hostile takeover, or Ophir Energy's low-ball takeover, there is always a chance that the situation like this might arise, even if we don't like it.
I'm personally hoping 37p (valuing EUA at 1 billion pounds) or more. £1 would be nice. I'm just wary because there are so many ifs we can't control especially if EUA starts trading again.
Just had a secure message from Aj Bell informing me that Eurasia is up for Sale, anyone else had the message ?
Alfe - its 28m shares approx. for 1% of EUA. Looking back at daily volumes we had around 100-170m around Indaba week. When shares were cheaper late October we saw 600-700m volume but price was in 2-4p range.
Like I said, not a chance of a hostile takeover below 30p, the for sale sign is hanging on the front door now - they have to play by the EUA/UBS rules now.
I think the pertinent question is: what is the BOD looking for in terms of their own price range? If BOD is happy with hmm, let's say, 25p (higher, but not entirely very pretty), we almost have to go with them since they control 20% of the stake. And 25p isn't entirely unreasonable for an undeveloped resource.
The ACF report they commissioned said 56p - but the important bit is: is that a high-end figure or a low-end figure for them?
HappyScot - I think you hit nail on head, some will sell. To use your numbers, I would suggest selling for 20-30p with an average below 7p (fairly safe to assume we all have this, many below 1p) is far from 'hostile' and you would be more than content with that.
If price does get that high and we haven't had a bid yet - clear the bid would need to be above current SP. so many will hold on for further gains. Indeed fresh II funds will scoop up as many as possible, Global Merger Arbitrage is the fancy term for those who specialise in this activity.
Personally, I doubt anyone would get more than 10% from below 3% without a massive rerate, under the takeover code we would be informed once above 1% or 3% as normal, so their cover would be blown and the rerate happens.
Dont forget anyone trying to get a hostile takeover percentage - will initially be competing with Shorters desperate to exit, regular punters who missed out at pre 7.2p & big boys who were accumulating with all the after hours buying pre suspension.
I think the buying pressure will outway any selling pressure - coupled with any rerate from initial offer.
Anyone selling will at least await for the initial upswell before offloading any - why wouldn't you.
Hi, Alfe,
I think what you have to remember is many just jumped on board due to the rise without fully researching, and were nervous of any drop in share price and dubious of finial outcome, now that they have been informed by the well researched on here and now having seen what we have all reiterated and the recent RNS's stating the company or its individual bits are up for sale, they can now see some real value in holding on to this stock and await the payday without having to do any selling as all the hard work has now been taken out of our hands and we just sit back and reap the reward, the BOD will get the best price for whatever is sold and you need not worry..
GFD, The delay in the Flanks final issue has been at the back of my mind for some time. I just hope there is nothing underhand going on and the delay is genuine.
Haven't read all the lengthy posts but why would a hostile takeover suddenly appear now after the company has announced a formal sale process? A hostile takeover attempt can happen anytime but I see no reason for the company/asset sale to trigger something like that...?
GFD, they may have requested further information, at some stage with the first WK flanks they did that which lead to a small delay.
Whatever it is, the BOD are confident at this stage to put the sale price up and to complete their 2015 plan, which was to
"crystallise substantial value from our Monchetundra interests".
The company will have been in constant contact with Sevzapnedra throughout.
GLA
I agree goodflyingduck, I alluded to this in an earlier thread - Why has the for sale sign gone up without the flanks licence being issued.
Its a x6 multiplyer on any SP
We cannot make informed decisions without it.
If fair value is 50p, why would people sell at 10-20p?
Even more reason to prefer this not to come back to trading
Offer stage
Vote
Conclude Sale.
Ta very much EUA.
I agree if they come back to market lots of people including myself will probably be tempted to sell some if it relisted at say 25p. I don't want to be tempted to sell any before the process is finalised as I prefer true value for all my shares that i've held on to.
To be fair that prediction table on here is people’s guess of the share price at the close of the first days trading not a final sale value.
Russian law tells you that it's in the bag either way, they just have to follow the process to obtain it -
"Under Russian subsoil licensing rules, where a Company or entity holds a mining permit the Company has the automatic right to apply for exploration ground directly adjacent or surrounding the already identified mineral reserves, to a limit of 5km. This application shall be uncontested and further protects the rights of the company to which the mining permit has been attributed"
GLA
In all cases the fair value of MT is significantly lower without the Flanks licence, than with it.
How could anyone even make a serious bid on the company without it ?
It dosent make sense to me to put the company up for sale without it.
Therefore I have to ASSUME they have it before the for sale went up & have just not RNS it - tho why that should happen I dont know - as you would think its in shareholders & potential bidders interest to know if the licence is included in the sale price.
My prediction was 10.8p but my final sale value is a few multiples of that.
It would be bedlam. How would it lead to an orderly market.
Shorters trying to get out.
Ii 's trying to buy in.
Mm's up to heir usual tricks and assisting the shorting brigade.
PI's trying to trade
Hope it doesn't return, but will be prepared should it do to try and add to my holding.