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IMHO - At some point there will be an RNS reporting a deal with OCP.
EML will need DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) as an input to the KMP processs.
OCP will need to use the KMP process at its own mine in Khemisset (which is rumoured to have higher % of Carnallite) or have EML do the processing.
Geoff, good post. Agree with most of what you say.
Pre KMP the mine was going to be using around 139m3/hr so an Olympic sized swimming pool of water every 2hrs. That usage is much better now at 56m3/hr.
They also came up with a better solution for the tailings in 2023 as they are now using dry stack tailings, which should be far more environmentally friendly.
If you look at the reasons for refusing to issue the permit in 2023 they are actually the same as back in 2021 when concerns were first raised. I believe this may just have been loose coms when the issues were simply c+p across for a previous RNS.
The next RNS IMO will be either
1, A revised DFS which should extend the life of the mine in years & improve the financials as the new process has lower cut off grades.
2, An off take agreement for the two new fertilizer products.
The EIA approval is hopefully late May or June.
It is understandable that the CRUI have made it difficult for Emmerson to receive the EISA. Pre KMP Emmerson believed that all the work they had done up until that point met or exceeded International mining standards.
My thoughts are that Emmerson will become the new bench mark for any mining company wanting to set up shop in Morocco going forward.
The planet is getting warmer and countries in the hot zones like Morocco are going to have to preserve water. The CRUI have a moral responsibility to do the right thing. In Moroccan terms this will be a large mine and hence has a large draw on water.
By upholding the referral it suggests to me the Ministerial Committee (Government) are taking a more holistic view of Emmerson and see the economic benefits it would bring to the Country in the form of jobs, investment and taxes. If I remember correct the GDP for Khemissett and the surround area was to grow by 40% due to the presence of the mine.
There were 5 reasons given as to why the CRUI could not approve the EISA.
1) use of waste water
2) deep well injection
3) tailings at surface
4) road congestion
5) land users
We know that 1&2 hopefully can be addressed by the new KMP process that has been proposed however Emmerson have not provided any information to us regarding the other 3 issues, particularly the storing of tailings at the surface.
No. 4. I understand the locals not wanting a production plant being built on their doorstep upsetting their utopia but in this case the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Congested roads are part of life. If roads are not there to move goods and people along, then what are they for? Emmerson are building their own road which I understand the locals can use out to the highway and looking at the photos on the Emmerson presentations the highway could handle 20 Emmerson’s before it gets any think like the M25.
5) Land Users. This again is not clear. Is 1 and 5 linked? Is this land owners or land users/ farmers who use the land to support Morocco’s agricultural industry saying they don’t want to share the waste water they use for irrigation due to concerns of shortages when the mine is up and running?
Hopefully Emmerson and the CRUI are having constructive meetings and for our sake we have a positive decision very soon. Thus allowing us to move onto the next de-risking issue and hopefully construction.
You sound pretty despondent (and rightly so) There is an extremely strong financially rewarding business case for the Khemisset project on so many levels but a 7 year drought and a dithering local council have not done us any favours. I also think there has been some back room skull duggery at play to kick this down the road from certain factions in government. Could be wrong here but I can't imagine OCP would be kept hanging on a decision for 3 years.
The EIA approval committee will certainly have a date on the calendar to meet but unless EML enquire and inform us then we'll be the last to know. Clarity and communication have been very poor and most RNS's raise more questions than they answer. If you feel you are going to lose the rest of your money then you should sell up now and get out with some cash rather than none. I'm not prepared to do that having been here 3 years. I believe the recent KMP scoping works will get this environmental approval over the line and deliver even higher margins/profits than the original feasibility study so I'm going to stay put
I appreciate it's really difficult to remain positive after all this time. Wishing you well in whatever decision you choose to make.
Are shareholders just being strung along for years so the money raised has kept the BOD etc on a good living . Communication has been minimal and confusing.
Surely the next meeting of the local decision makers on issuing the permit will be on a calendar somewhere 🤔 😀 😄
Yet we are left in the dark looking for the early RNS on the subject every morning. Clarity is needed but won't be forthcoming.
Never will I invest in a startup company ever again.
Sad I know and I have tried support startups and been screwed every time.
I am still in and will more than likely lose the rest of my money.
Companies can scam shareholders and its exceptable.
and take inflated salaries for little work and when things go wrong it's someone else's decision or problem.
Signed Frustrated Shareholders
8 April RNS stated the revised EIA would be "....submitted in the coming days... "
"The Company and its consultants have therefore been preparing a revised EIA to address the concerns previously raised by the CRUI including the improvements arising from the Khemisset Multi-mineral Process ("KMP"), and this document will be submitted in the coming days."
Say 15 April submission - Then we would expect an answer by Mid July 2024.
We’re coming up to 2 months since the EIA decision was bounced back to the Dibley Parish council for review. Does anyone have any thoughts on how long before any news is forthcoming? I heard 90 days was bounded around but after 3 years waiting to date who knows?
Swaz.
When the EISA arrive your nonsense charts, and your 'friends', even AI is going to look awfully silly. Even more silly if the EISA is refused. Suggest you try something else. May be open a corn feed shop and supply Castlepaul with his dailies.
Charts and technicals don't mean anything on AIM it's all news driven and sentiment. Save them for the Blue Chips.
Hi all, I am working with one of my partners & now using advanced A.I. to offer a detailed analysis of my charting system. I thought I would share my latest #EML data with this group. Here are the existing charts I have drawn for #EML with the A.I's perspective & overview, based on how it interprets market data. https://www.tradingview.com/x/17R5wbRD/
### Chart Analysis for Emmerson PLC (EML) - Daily Time Frame
Overview:
The chart displays a consolidation pattern with a recent breakout. The daily time frame reveals a price compression in a rectangular consolidation zone between GBX 2.45 and GBX 2.80. The breakout above this range, supported by increased volume, suggests a potential continuation to the upside.
### Technical Indicators:
- EMA Crossovers: The 9-day EMA (2.40) has recently crossed above the 21-day EMA (2.34) and the 50-day EMA (2.29), indicating short to mid-term bullish momentum.
- Volume: An increase in volume on the breakout day supports the bullish sentiment.
- Support/Resistance: Previous resistance at GBX 2.80 now acts as support after the breakout, with the next significant resistance near GBX 3.54, the high from earlier peaks.
### Strategy:
Confidence Level: Moderate-High
Trade Setup:
- Position: Long
### Conclusion:
The chart setup for EML suggests a bullish outlook following the breakout from its recent consolidation pattern. Trading strategy focuses on capitalizing on the momentum, with a stop placed conservatively below the breakout level to protect against false breakouts or retracements.
💡 Risk Management Tip: Monitor the EMA lines for potential crossover reversals and adjust the stop-loss accordingly to manage risk effectively.
The UK has just experienced the wettest 18 months, since records began in the 1890’s. There’s still chatter about a summer drought, though. The issue isn’t with the rain fall, it’s with its retention. No new reservoirs, water loss through old pipes, too much fresh water being allowed to run off to tidal rivers etc.
Articles written by people who have never had their Gore-tex soaked right through from an endless downpour in the west Highlands! They also relate to water management and timing issues as much as total rainfall variations across the country.
Easy to pick articles from the internet that support one side of an argument while ignoring all those that don't. So here's another, just for balance:
https://www.environment.gov.scot/our-environment/climate/changing-climate/
"There has been an increase in rainfall over Scotland in the past few decades, with an increasing proportion coming from heavy rainfall events. The average year in the last decade (2010-2019) was 9 % wetter than the 1961-1990 average."
The "increasing proportion coming from heavy rainfall events" being one of the things that contributes to water management issues there. So loading it into tankers at point of fall would be opportunistic, but then shipping them to Morocco would contribute to global warming and then we're back to square one. Plus ça change!
Note that it’s all speculation rather actual fact. Learn to read please. Risk, threat, nothing about less rain and is plenty of that. Glasgow almost every day it is raining check the weather forecast.
Nearly.
https://www.insider.co.uk/news/scotland-at-risk-water-shortages-32644022
Scotland faces water shortages unless immediate action is taken to make the country more resilient to drought (2024)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-65928250
Warning Scotland faces threat of water shortages (2023)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-61864347
East-west split in Scotland as water scarcity threat grows (2022)
EML, should just buy a tanker lot from Scotland and ship that to Morocco. Rains enough up north they will be glad of the extra revenue.
6. Bribery and corruption
In 2022, Morocco ranked 94th out of 180 countries (87th in 2021) in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI). Corruption remains a major challenge in Morocco and the government has taken a series of measures to address this. These include the establishment of a new anti-corruption commission, (know as the ICPC) and the creation of an Ethics Committee, aimed at eliminating corruption and fraud within firms.
More generally, to improve the business climate and create a more attractive environment for investors, Morocco is seeking to introduce greater transparency. Measures include: adopting an ‘access to information’ law; reforming government tender processes with a law requiring open bidding; and creating a specialised unit working on money laundering.
Visit the Business Anti-Corruption portal page for further information about handling corruption in Morocco and measures you can put in place to protect your company. Read more information provided on our Bribery and corruption page.
That’s the £100,000,000 question. We have to hold our nerve at this late stage in the approval process if you think it will pass or sell up and take some money if you think it won’t. Whilst it has taken 3 years from first submission, the environmental credentials have never looked as good with the new KMP now part of the process. The big negative is Morocco is now seven years into a drought and not four. I’m holding out for a yes to the ESIA application having been here over 3 years.
When is it going to land?
When the ESIA is rejected
Is there a barrier at 3 p . ?
When’s this going to explode ?
Extracts from interview with Azzedine El Midaoui, Director of the International Water Research Institute at UM6P, discusses the complexities and successes of Morocco’s approach to water management.
At the heart of this discourse lies the integration of cutting-edge technological innovations into water management practices. Embracing water-efficient and eco-friendly technologies is paramount for sustainability.
El Midaoui emphasized the “interconnectedness” of various research domains, ranging from fundamental research to technological innovation, each playing a pivotal role in addressing the complexities of water management and climate change.
You're an optimist.
How about 10p on approval and 20% of NPV on completion of funding
Not on approval 10p max then double again by 2026.