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A Drunken!arcus Spot on with your comment about mature stores strong performance. Also the company�s analysis of maturity of stores is in line with previous comments. Interim 2018�s will be key for me in terms of making progress of contribution versus a SG&A costs.
I'm fine with that Dave, it will hopefully give me chance to buy more and keep topping up at lower prices. I plan to top up in April, so my worry was the results for 2017 would be better than expected and result in the share price rising. For me, the most encouraging part was that the oldest mature stores are outperforming the original business case.
We're stuck in the doldrums here, can't see much significant movement for a couple of years. Need to be patient as I believe we will get there, but it will be a long haul. Dave
I doubt it, we seem to be stuck in a very big rut at the moment. Dave
The shares are up a little since I last posted, but not as much as I thought. Results next week should keep the share price rising.
Oh no, DPP rising - again! I topped up in the low 30s but wanted it to stay there until I had the cash to top up further in April. Annoying! Then again, my average is far below even the current price.
Oh no, DPP rising - again! I topped up in the low 30s but wanted it to stay there until I had the cash to top up further in April. Annoying! Then again, my average is far below even the current price.
Happier to be holding now back in Profit with current holding. Hopefully results will als provide recent weeks trading update
5 years was just my guess at it having more than 100 stores and strong growth with cash generation. Clearly I would prefer a 10 year stonking growth company. Good day today as full year results date is approached.
>>I hope not. << Ditto, Hugo36! And not even in five years' time IMHO. :-)
I hope not. Maybe, in about 5 years time. I hope they (DOM) concentrate on building what they have in their other countries before they or anyone else gobbles up DPP. Back in, but not for it to be a takeover target but for growth for a few years.
DOM stated this morning under outlook heading we will also review opportunities to enter additional markets in Northern Europe this includes Poland geographically. I note that DPG Australia has franchises in Germany, France, Belgium and Netherlands in Northern Europe. DOM already have a 33% interest in Germany franchise so it could mean extending deals to other territories with DPG. It could mean it is looking at other Northern European countries but as it already owns stakes in Norway, Sweden and Iceland that narrows down the possibilities. Results announcement could be interesting.
Holding out for 30p. If not 32p will do as i'm holding for minimum of 3 years. Not in at the moment. But, in the next 6-12 months will want o be in for the long prosperous haul.
I'd say that they are shortsighted rather than insane. Personally, I wish the results were due out later because I want the share price to remain at this level or lower until I have a chance to top up again!
Hi all. Don't really have anything new to add to the excellent commentary below. I too agree that our company has a bright future and will ultimately follow the successful trajectory of it's international sisters. Hopefully the self-sustaining inflection point is not far off. All that said the recent share price performance has been pretty depressing. No doubt the share price got significantly ahead of itself. But 33p. Really??!! I am convinced that those selling at these levels (except those who do so on a forced basis) are insane. I also try and think of DPP on a VC basis i.e. ignore ST SP movements and top up on the dips. Still this constant erosion does become wearing at times. Are we missing a trick? Or do the impatient "fools" who are selling in dribs and drabs actually know something the market doesn't. Who said this investment game was easy. NB: Sorry for the small rant. I just never thought that having crossed 55 stores, with the 2nd commissary open, following a decent trading update we would be re-testing these levels. The FY results can't come more quickly enough for this bemused shareholder...
Sometime I will put together a spreadsheet showing all the stores in the existing estate which will be past break even point but not yet earning the full cashflows that a mature store would be generating. There are many current stores which were opened up in 2016 and 2017 which will give a significant boost to revenues in 2018, 2019 and 2020 as their revenues gain. I agree on the issue of franchisees and hopefully the national rollout gathering pace, plus the momentum from advertising, will help get more of them onboard. :-) Yes, I hold DOM (a much smaller holding than my DPP) but I haven't studied DPEU in enough detail to have an informed opinion. I like the Domino's Pizza business model so the issue is really the markets DPEU is in.
Sometime I will put together a spreadsheet showing all the stores in the existing estate which will be past break even point but not yet earning the full cashflows that a mature store would be generating. There are many current stores which were opened up in 2016 and 2017 which will give a significant boost to revenues in 2018, 2019 and 2020 as their revenues gain. I agree on the issue of franchisees and hopefully the national rollout gathering pace, plus the momentum from advertising, will help get more of them onboard. :-) Yes, I hold DOM (a much smaller holding than my DPP) but I haven't studied DPEU in enough detail to have an informed opinion. I like the Domino's Pizza business model so the issue is really the markets DPEU is in.
Sometime I will put together a spreadsheet showing all the stores in the existing estate which will be past break even point but not yet earning the full cashflows that a mature store would be generating. There are many current stores which were opened up in 2016 and 2017 which will give a significant boost to revenues in 2018, 2019 and 2020 as their revenues gain. I agree on the issue of franchisees and hopefully the national rollout gathering pace, plus the momentum from advertising, will help get more of them onboard. :-) Yes, I hold DOM (a much smaller holding than my DPP) but I haven't studied DPEU in enough detail to have an informed opinion. I like the Domino's Pizza business model so the issue is really the markets DPEU is in.
Good point on 2nd commissary. The other relevant is that DPP now have a larger number of franchisees which should help to spread some of the new store opening burden. Some of these franchisees have been given loans but again these should get repaid over time. Off topic, I see you are in DOM (like me) do you hold or have a view on DPEU which has franchise for Turkey and Russia? I have a small new holding in that entity.
I forgot to mention it, but what was the cost of the second commissary? That came online in 2017 and would have represented a significant cash investment, contributing to cash burn, which won't be repeated again for a while as they now have capacity for up to 150 stores.
I think you nailed it, Theanalyzer. We have a large proportion of the current estate which is still immature and/or loss making. I posted before about the shortening period for new stores to break even, but the reduced drag on earnings simply from existing stores breaking even (and older, profitable stores continuing to grow) will be considerable IMHO. If we start with 55 stores today and assume they open 20 in 2018 then we'll end the year with about a quarter of the store estate (20/75) under 12 months old; another 15 in 2019 would take us to 17% of the estate under 12 months old (15/90); another 15 in 2020 would take us to 14% of the estate under 12 months old; and so it continues that, even if they open 15-20 stores a year, the 'drag' of new loss making stores will continually be falling. On current forecasts for a group level EBITDA loss of �0.5 million in 2019, it seems entirely possible to me that the group as a whole will be breaking even by the end of next year (the full year loss would likely reflect heavier losses earlier in 2019). It has taken time to build a business but they're getting closer...
DPP had cash of �8.8 million at interim date and operating cash burn was �544,000. Yes DPP spent �1.9 million on building out new stores in interim so interim cash burn was circa �2.5 million. The key issue is how quickly stores mature and start generating cash and profit to fund future growth. As estate grows the impact of new stores cash burn declines versus mature stores. If like for like growth continues I think DPP will reaching that tipping point quickly. If there is a placing to continue to drive growth I will be comfortable providing I can see prospects of mature stores generating cash and profits.
The BIG problem here is the massive lack of funds to move forward.
I'm certainly happy with it, even if it did represent an 'averaging up' for me. I went a bit mad when it was in the mid teens. :-) They say investing should be for a minimum five years - I think longer! - so roll on 2023. I'd predict well over one hundred stores, a company generating growing cashflows and a substantially more valuable entity than it is today.
You did very well. I added the other day at .3495 which I am very pleased with.