Member Info for ADrunkenMarcus

I hold this in what i call my ‘dividend growth portfolio’. Ironically the dividend has stopped growing and, in fact, reversed!

I've held since 2012 at 465p. :) I recall it was sad news about John McClure as I think he died quite suddenly? He had been managing the (now defunct) Acorn Income Fund (actually an IT) with had a hybrid approach of a small cap equity and bond portfolio combined. It seemed to deteriorate after his death.

Finally, I think DPP has got a management team which is executing and getting the company to the sort of critical mass needed. I added to my position.

I'm hoping that they finally have a solid base for expansion without any further equity issuance/dilution. They have built a substantial business underneath the hood, which isn't reflected in the market capitalisation. In the long run, I'm hopeful it can multi bag from here. I don't think it impossible that they get to a billion if they make a success of Poland and Croatia and, potentially, expand into other territories where it is sensible.

A successful sub franchised model should generate enormous free cashflows and a solid capital allocation policy will be essential to maximise returns.

I hope you are right. I've been in a long while. Forecasts show £6.2 million in EBITDA for 2023 and still £1.3 million in EBIT. As time progresses, we need that growing EBITDA to translate into free cash flow and capacity for reinvestment in the business without them keeping issuing more and more shares. Current market cap is £58 million or so, which is 9.4 x 2023 EBITDA. looks very cheap provided they make progress. If they get to a store estate with hundreds of stores in Poland and Croatia (Poland is growing so strongly, frankly the average person may be as rich or richer than the UK in a generation) then why not a market cap in the hundreds of millions, too?

Held since 2015 and the share price is about the same as it was then in nominal terms, notwithstanding a surge above 3300p in 2018. Good dividends and specials in particular (the ordinary hasn't grown since 2018 or so). ROCE is strong and margins decent but have been weakening somewhat. I wonder whether we will see so many specials in future now buybacks are part of their framework? The key for me is they need to get growing - when will the mega programmes pay off?

All sounds good and I've held since 2010. However, in the long run I want to see what happens as they head towards 1,600 UK and Ireland stores. Given that international expansion did not work, how much more growth is there in the UK and Ireland? I note they have an interest in the German venture.

Sadly I only bought DOM in 2010 at 116 (in today's money, allowing for the 3-for-1 share split in 2016). I have bought more DPP in recent weeks!

Held DPLM since 2012 and it's compounded well over 20% per year! Assuming the interim dividend is the same proportion of the full year dividend as historically then we may well see as much as a 38% dividend increase for the year as a whole. Perhaps that's optimistic, but they didn't say anything about rebalancing the payouts.

I'd have preferred it to remain 'as is'!

A long time holder of DOM here and the results look good. The final dividend, representing the entire dividend for 2020, was set at 9.1p which actually represents a slight reduction on the annual rate they had reached pre-COVID (9.76p). Somewhat odd as they could have easily grown it slightly or maintained it, while reducing it slightly doesn't save much at all.

Consensus forecast puts DPP down to generate £1.2 free cash flow in 2022, which puts it on a forward 2.5% free cash flow yield.

The announcements from Friday were quite detailed. Their strategy for the future sounds sensible and they've certainly got a much improved, enlarged unit base for the intended expansion. They also said they intended to finance that expansion through organic cash flow generation. Let's hope!

'I don't want a lot for Christmas, I don't even wish for snow...All I want for Christmas is news!'

RBS completed the takeover of ABN Amro in less time! A disaster it turned out to be, but I imagine that was somewhat more complex than the discussions here.

Interesting comments.
The significant shareholders are:
Pageant Holdings Ltd:17.17%;
Canaccord Genuity Group Inc:12.44%;
FMR LLC:9.51%;
JM Finn & Co Ltd:6.01%;
Christopher Moore:4.94%.

I do wonder what Pageant Holdings' average share price paid is! Chris Moore's holding is needed to take these top shareholders to over 50%, however he's 'only' got under 5% so surely Pageant's views are more significant. On the other hand, they presumably need to get guarantees of over 50% of shareholders to agree for it to go ahead.

One broker is showing it as 0p! Another broker is showing 7.25p. The spread was actually with a 'buy price' of 9p when they were suspended.

Yes, we need to see details of what they are proposing, what the combined company will look like, their strategy for growth in the future / benefits of a merger. I found some data for Dominium SA online but only up to 2018.
Let's get that Admission document!

The spread was big pre-suspension, too. The buy price was 9p and the sell price 7.25p. When they raised capital in February 2019 and quoted the prior day's closing price, they used the buy price and I'd assume any offer in future will need to be with reference to 9p + x % or whatever they might chose.
I really wouldn't mind DPP as an independent company, provided they can get to forecast 2022 cashflow breakeven without further huge dilution. They do have a borrowing facility they may be able to tap in 2021-22 if needed.

I should hope they are driving a hard bargain.
The Q3 recovery in like for like sales is promising and let's hope it continues.
Cash burn seems to be reducing, c. £900,000 taken off the cash balance from year end 2019 to end June 2020, compared to £1,465,000 at year end 2019 vs. end June 2019.
Net cash from operating activities a deficit of £253,803 vs. a deficit of £1,543,415 in comparing first half of 2020 with first half of 2019. (This is partly because they have reduced investment and not opened more stores, however it's a dramatic reduction and many stores opened in 2017, 2018 and 2019 will be either hitting maturity or seeing losses reduce substantially so they don't produce a drag.)
They had said they could get through to summer 2021 without foreseeing further fundraising and had targeted free cashflow breakeven in 2022. They may be able to do this as an independent company and, if existing shareholders got pre-emption rights in any fundraising to bridge the second half of 2021 (wishful thinking LOL) then that wouldn't be so bad.