Dunelm Share Chat (DNLM)

The apocalypse? The BoE have predicted a 5 quarter recession from Q4. The Fed have predicted a "slow landing" next year (or a small recession in direct terms). I stated my reasons why it these were obvious outcomes in terms of yield curves.

Why am I invested? The stock market doesn't directly follow economics. The next 3 months will see the S&P move higher as inflation falls despite recessionary fears.

You are so so wrong, Homeserve which dropped 40% to 2014 level had received an offer lots of funds pored in to take it privately and sold at almost fair price. I was in total panic at some point but in the end staying calm I made a very nice profit.

Please do your research before you propagate the apocalypse which I can only assume you predicted and you are out unharmed because you are so clever and now you are hare with your comments because you have nothing else to do .

@hedged so are you still invested? Why haven't you sold everything in time given the abundance of knowledge you have?

massive director buys in the last few months, good trading update.
What else can this Co do to attract shareholders? Send them money directly maybe! LOL!
All IMHO.

Chief financial officer. Karen Witts:-
Karen Witts 5 August 2022 1,174 GBP8.4516 24,918

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DNLM/directorpdmr-shareholding-sszc2gefuiips9y.html

Why would a takeover be attractive? The Adderley family hold a massive amount of the shares and I can’t see them wanting to give up control.
If they did accept a takeover, if anything it would more likely be to private equity and private investors would lose being able to hold a solid, well run business.
I see bigger returns in holding this for the next decade than a 30% premium to current sp.

I understand the bigger players invest for the medium to long term.
I get the impression DNLM is a well run efficient Company with a good web site as well.
I think they will perform better than most in any downturn, then when things improove have excellent profits.
All IMHO.

A recession has been on the cards for the US and Europe for at least 6 months. The 2y & 10y inverted a while back and 3m & 10y spread has significantly closed.

Consumer confidence has tanked.
Consumer spending has tanked.
Mortgage approvals down 36% last month.
Inflation predicted to hit 13% in October.

The only shining light is non-farm payrolls, the US increased jobs by 500k which means the fed could increase interest rates by another 75bps.

Where are you getting info that a bigger player may invest?

a bid or maybe one of the bigger players will invest now to reap the benefits after the recession, assuming we have one!
Under £10 a share is silly IMHO.
All IMHO.

Seems extremely unlikely.

We are heading into a recession within 18 months.
There are companies down 80% who also look attractive.
Potential buyers will want to hoard cash too for the downturn.

has crashed from 1500p in sept 2021, to, although it has recovered a bit since the ridiculous lows of under 800p, the current 826p. We have had large director buys when the sp was over £10 and a fantastic trading update on 21st July!!! The traing update sounded just brilliant.
So here we are. Surely takeover Co's must be crunching the numbers here for a takeover. Seems extremely likely to me. Really.
All IMHO.

.

Looking fantastic
Earning/share of over a pound is 60% increase on last year. One to keep for long term income play.

The share price today, and this week, has been showing that this company looks to be resilient.

I agree on the director buys. Hopefully this is more than simply a bear market rally.

Up 3.4%. Let's face it as we know from the RNS's the directors have been filling their boots with share buys and now we know why.
All IMHO.

Im not entirely sure thats accurate. People have had a lot of savings which is being diminished due to inflation so things will get worse for the consumer. If you think things are bad now then it will get worse unless the Govt reduces taxes or commodity prices fall.

The question is, given this context, how resilient is Dunelm and its consumer base?

Looks like they are in an excellent position for when things improve, and are solid while the markets are relatively bad at the moment.
Pretty safe bet by the looks.
All IMHO

The results weren't overwhelming considering the amount of savings people had but I'm glad we beat analyst expectations.

p/e of only 8 looks a bit mean to me - increase in sp justified but market is cautious atm.

It's been on a long time frankly. However the sp has been showing signs of life of late. The sp is shot to pieces.

Great activity leading into results tomorrow.

Probably more important at the moment is the company’s share buyback, which seems to be providing support at £8.00.

I would never consider any equity analysts price target. They are always wrong.

The macro environment is pretty clear, the only firms who can weather another short term decline are those with strong balance sheets and dividend payers.

I agree it's helpful that directors have been buying. They won't be able to control the short term price movements but will be able to convince long term investors that this company is a safer haven in the retail sector vs its peers.

niklol:-
"Dunelm downgraded by RBC"
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Yes. You fail to mention new target £9.50 and the current sp is £8.09.

I'd say anyone short with DNLM is taking a massive risk.
Not only have various directors made large share purchases in the last few months Dunelm have had a massive sale on. A POSITIVE trading update is not out of the question, and the shares have come down from £14 a share to £8.00.
All IMHO.

Q2 earnings are expected to be disappointing throughout the market in the next few weeks. Does anyone have any market consensus or expectations for Dunelm?