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Just reading this on the NSTA 33rd round .
A total of 82 offers to 50 companies have now been made in the round which attracted 115 bids from 76 companies across 257 blocks and part-blocks. The licences offered in the round have the potential to add an estimated 600 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) up to 2060, or 545 mmboe by 2050.
Wow now that's a lot of offers from a lot of companies, and Swindell puts out an RNS a deal can't be done ! after reading that i most certainly think there is deal to be done, we have a discovery and a partnership with Shell ffs. Its not a wild cat drill, but an appraisal well, i think by the numbers above there will be quite a few interested, i still dont get the RNS and probably never will with the resultant SP collapse, i just hope there is no underhand skullduggery going on. I hope these numbers give others some confidence in these nerve shattering times. Rot.
Getafgrip, brilliant summary. I hope this is what is going on!! That's why I didn't dump my shares.
If they fail, that's the end of the company as we know it, as no more deals with be done (if you can't do this huge opp, then what are you doing?; then the strategy will collapse, sadly)
DP - I think this is just ruthless management of the FO process. I am disappointed, but quite understand people opting out as investors as there is a lot of traumatic history here. To an extent they are collateral damage to the objectives and strategy behind the RNS. As with Sir John Harvey Jones view: was that business is about slaying your favourite children!
I really don't hold the view that Graham Swindells cannot construct an agreed deal. The only stumbling block is the price & maybe prominence of the FO partner - Dana was an inspired choice if something similar can be replicated. The RNS was for me intended to focus the minds of the negotiators, remind them that they are in a competitive situation, reinforce the fact that Deltic is in live negotiations with several other parties, and that the opportunity to share in part of 30% of Pensacola is time-limited expiring for them in a little over 3-weeks.
I don't think handing back the rights to 30% of Pensacola to Shell and One-Dyas is a particularly realistic threat from Deltic. If it is what is the point in what they do as a company!
Do Shell really want a share of the 30% that the RNS states might revert to them? Essentially this would break the business model, throw Shell partnerships into disarray etc, and alienate Deltic from dealing with them when they are about to be up to their necks in Selene together!
If anyone wants a share of Pensacola, they have 23-days to come up with a realistic offer or the coach will turn into a pumpkin! It seems highly unlikely that if the 30% reverted to being owned by Shell & One-Dyas, that they would then seek a replacement partner! When Pensacola is gone it has gone! A golden opportunity for GS to demonstrate his corporate finance skills & for me that is what he is doing! Hopefully!
Getafgrip, I agree. After the RNS, around 5-6% voted with their feet. That's fine, those with little faith in the management team should do just that.
The more I think about the RNS, they clearly have difficulties closing a deal (and we cannot control the market )and there is no appetite for a fund raise (and they cannot rely on us small investors for the full amount; ain't gonna happen!). However, it may well have been a warning shot from the CEO to ALL statkeholders, including large shareholders, Shell and other interested parties, that a deal must be reached before end of May. It may be high risk brinkmanship, but possibly he had no choice and the CEO does not come across as an impulsive, irrational person.
I have a lot of repect for the team in terms of what they have achieved. If they fail to fix the current problem, my views will clearly change. For now, it's wait and see. In any case, I want to see the fruits of Selene, even if that's all that is left at the end of May!!
Thanks ajilimon
Been invested here 5 years and still learning, didn't learn enough to get out when I was 300% up but hey ho I am still all in but underwater by the biggest margin yet.
If you mean this ...
"Following completion of the well test programme, as planned and previously stated, the well will now be plugged and abandoned in line with the usual procedure for a well of this nature, and the Noble Resilient will be de-mobilised from site.
... from 8th Feb 2023 you need to learn some oil and gas terminoilogy before you invest.
Yup, I remember it well.
Sorry 99
My post was not finished correctly. As I remember that also caused the price to sink. At the time people were saying that it could have been better worded.
23 Nov 2022.... why?
Does anyone else remember a previous badly worded release regarding the pensecola appraisal well when after drilling it would be capped off
I would go for the BoD falling on their swords, or forming an orderly queue at the roof jumping-off point, if the FO has failed once deadline day is reached, or it is agreed on very bad terms for Deltic.
My view is that these negotiations are going down to the wire. Graham Swindells is a tough negotiator - look at the Selene deal. At least give the BoD the opportunity to complete the negotiations otherwise the tea lady (person) will find themseves in charge of them!
Has to go !!! Also all the non exec directors who do Feck all, and the HR lady
The board shouldn't release a bad RNS with no funding plans.
It has been over 15 months since the release of the Pensacola discovery. They have 3 weeks left and still funding news.
I have been mega impressed the way business has been conducted, up until now. If they balls up with this then why believe in the other licences?
The real fall was nearer 6% yesterday. The closing price on Friday was recorded as 20p due to a small trade of £200 in the closing auction when the trading price had been 18p bid 18.4p offer.
15% down yesterday 9% spread new 17p low.
When you need him
Not wanting to end up cuckoo but the new licenses are highly important.
If Deltic have the ability to find gas in, if memory serves, unexpected geology then they have the expertise to find it again. That is they applied for licenses well before the findings at Pensacola had been released, some would say that is good practice others would say very canny
That is the basis of my positive view but am seeking confirmation or refutation that it has value. Now where has Exploration disappeared to? I have always enjoyed his contributions.
And also yours Dr P which are very even handed.
How low can it go? Utter disgrace this with not a word from the BOD. What are they thinking as they draw their big bucks salary.
Shares now trading at 0.85p, pre consolidation.
I am tempted to dip a toe back in but the price action says the SP has further to fall.
Watching.
My understanding is the economics of Selene are much better due to infrastructure. This is why it was more attractive as a f/o proposition. Penascola as far as I know is a much bigger investment to exploit, which is why the f@ckwit political parties of this country have thrown a massive spanner in the works for the f/o and future development. I said earlier the mcap might drop down to £15m, which is effectively the value of the Selene free carry. So that to me is the base value of the company without any value attached to Penascola. From there it's then a coin flip with a 70% CoS to see if it does multi-bag from 15p. Still a gamble though.
I also think £15m mcap may be the nice round number from where they raise cash. You double the share count to get the Penascola drill away with full 30% ownership maintained plus circa £5m cash in the bank. Drop by £5m for every 10% we give-away. One would hope we can get some sort of fee or extra carry for the % loss. I think a £4m raise (plus small fee / extra carry) plus £2.5m from cash in the bank should allow us to maintain 15%. By extension we'll need £8m to maintain 20%.
Having said this I'm unsure if +£5m dilution is allowed. If they don't have the ability to raise up to £10m then mgt are f@cking !diots and shouldn't have a job. They should always have avenues open to raise cash, no matter how confident they were of a f/o. Pure incompetence otherwise.
Hopefully they go for the bigger raise and try to hold onto most of the 30%. Like Dr Patience I felt a raise was the best option when the sp was in the high 20's. And now it's the only option (providing mgt haven't f@cked this up as well). Absolute clusterf@ck but at least the bottom appears to be near.
And yes Delt is a going, zero risk of going bankrupt. The worst case scenario is giving up Pensacola, which would most unwelcome as multibagger becomes multibagger divided by 2!!!
Olearney, I don't know and it is probably irrelevant at this point of time unless Pensacola is rescued as ours. If not, Delt will just exploit Selene and that's most likely the end of the road; no more licences will be accepted. Selene on its own is worth a great deal more than the current share price, so even the worst case scenario is not that bad.
Breach of trust is the real issue if that happens; all credibility will be lost and we just need to max out Selene!
Hello
I am new to Deltic and wonder how close the newly awarded licenses are to Pensacola? Is the geology the same.
I am ignoring bad and trying to focus on potential, though I do see the Final Results mentions Going Concern. But assume that is standard financial stuff.
Selene is probably slightly ahead in terms of maturity and access to existing infrastructure (as I recall), but otherwise I would say they are fairly similar. Most brokers have valued Selene slightly higher than Pensacola. The windfall tax thing is an old story and no different from say Normay, so should not really be the main issue here. Political uncertainty has clearly been very very unhelful, although Labour more or less have shown their cards.
It's profoundly confusing to me that they are struggling with the farm out; even a mediocre one.
Are the economics of the projects very different? I would have thought that the overriding 80% tax is the key factor?
What has happened here. I almost invested more money here few weeks back expecting a steady rise for the planned 2024 drilling