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The board shouldn't release a bad RNS with no funding plans.
It has been over 15 months since the release of the Pensacola discovery. They have 3 weeks left and still funding news.
I have been mega impressed the way business has been conducted, up until now. If they balls up with this then why believe in the other licences?
The real fall was nearer 6% yesterday. The closing price on Friday was recorded as 20p due to a small trade of £200 in the closing auction when the trading price had been 18p bid 18.4p offer.
15% down yesterday 9% spread new 17p low.
When you need him
Not wanting to end up cuckoo but the new licenses are highly important.
If Deltic have the ability to find gas in, if memory serves, unexpected geology then they have the expertise to find it again. That is they applied for licenses well before the findings at Pensacola had been released, some would say that is good practice others would say very canny
That is the basis of my positive view but am seeking confirmation or refutation that it has value. Now where has Exploration disappeared to? I have always enjoyed his contributions.
And also yours Dr P which are very even handed.
How low can it go? Utter disgrace this with not a word from the BOD. What are they thinking as they draw their big bucks salary.
Shares now trading at 0.85p, pre consolidation.
I am tempted to dip a toe back in but the price action says the SP has further to fall.
Watching.
My understanding is the economics of Selene are much better due to infrastructure. This is why it was more attractive as a f/o proposition. Penascola as far as I know is a much bigger investment to exploit, which is why the f@ckwit political parties of this country have thrown a massive spanner in the works for the f/o and future development. I said earlier the mcap might drop down to £15m, which is effectively the value of the Selene free carry. So that to me is the base value of the company without any value attached to Penascola. From there it's then a coin flip with a 70% CoS to see if it does multi-bag from 15p. Still a gamble though.
I also think £15m mcap may be the nice round number from where they raise cash. You double the share count to get the Penascola drill away with full 30% ownership maintained plus circa £5m cash in the bank. Drop by £5m for every 10% we give-away. One would hope we can get some sort of fee or extra carry for the % loss. I think a £4m raise (plus small fee / extra carry) plus £2.5m from cash in the bank should allow us to maintain 15%. By extension we'll need £8m to maintain 20%.
Having said this I'm unsure if +£5m dilution is allowed. If they don't have the ability to raise up to £10m then mgt are f@cking !diots and shouldn't have a job. They should always have avenues open to raise cash, no matter how confident they were of a f/o. Pure incompetence otherwise.
Hopefully they go for the bigger raise and try to hold onto most of the 30%. Like Dr Patience I felt a raise was the best option when the sp was in the high 20's. And now it's the only option (providing mgt haven't f@cked this up as well). Absolute clusterf@ck but at least the bottom appears to be near.
And yes Delt is a going, zero risk of going bankrupt. The worst case scenario is giving up Pensacola, which would most unwelcome as multibagger becomes multibagger divided by 2!!!
Olearney, I don't know and it is probably irrelevant at this point of time unless Pensacola is rescued as ours. If not, Delt will just exploit Selene and that's most likely the end of the road; no more licences will be accepted. Selene on its own is worth a great deal more than the current share price, so even the worst case scenario is not that bad.
Breach of trust is the real issue if that happens; all credibility will be lost and we just need to max out Selene!
Hello
I am new to Deltic and wonder how close the newly awarded licenses are to Pensacola? Is the geology the same.
I am ignoring bad and trying to focus on potential, though I do see the Final Results mentions Going Concern. But assume that is standard financial stuff.
Selene is probably slightly ahead in terms of maturity and access to existing infrastructure (as I recall), but otherwise I would say they are fairly similar. Most brokers have valued Selene slightly higher than Pensacola. The windfall tax thing is an old story and no different from say Normay, so should not really be the main issue here. Political uncertainty has clearly been very very unhelful, although Labour more or less have shown their cards.
It's profoundly confusing to me that they are struggling with the farm out; even a mediocre one.
Are the economics of the projects very different? I would have thought that the overriding 80% tax is the key factor?
What has happened here. I almost invested more money here few weeks back expecting a steady rise for the planned 2024 drilling
Bdogg, it's clearly not worthless. The operator, Shell, is pushing ahead full steam Q4 (all planned, long lead items ordered etc).
Whether we get our fair share is the ONLY issue!! Those selling are assuming it is lost (and more!)
Yes and no. I feel Labour's position has been made clear and not changed since the Dana farm out.
I think the big oil&gas boys are sending warning signals to politicians (incl potential for Shell listing going to US) and may just feel it is easier to avoid the NS.
The problem here is NOT the (current) tax regime as much as the lack of clarity about what will happen under a new government.
The problem here is the (current) tax regime as much as the lack of clarity about what will happen under a new government.
Is Pensacola is worthless under the tax regime why is Selene any different?
FWIW - I have not had the benefit of any of the broker research that's out there. For my own understanding I have used the numbers of page 13 of the Deltic 25 May 23 presentation. Note that these were before consolidation (so x20 gives the current per share). At 75p/Therm gas price: Selene is valued at 200p/share and Pensacola 120p/share (so Selene 5/8 and Pensacola 3/8 of total).
How is that working for you David6576?
We need concrete news, we are stuck here for now. The big rinse probably done, so everybody else just on standby!! TBC
Glad I topped at 19p back to 30 p and that equates to a 50% gain gla
Expecting strong reversal tomorrow.Not many know the value of these two licences value.👀👀👀💼💯
On your last point, Selene is worth slightly more than Pensacola (as things stands) subject to both being funded. A total loss of Pensacola is more than baked into the current shareprice due to the psychological shock!
Selene on its own is worth a great deal more than the current sp in my view, but we may need to wait for the drilling results to overcome the current shock and fear!!!
So they’ve said they’re not able to raise funds (they’ll always be able to, depends on the terms).
They’ve said they’re not able to get a jv (they’ll always be able to depends on the terms)
Which leaves giving back $200m worth of asset.
One of the top two will happen (maybe a combination of the two) because you can bet your life the bottom one won’t! (And if we did give it back, what would happen to the sp?)
Oh, so happy times for one of our largest shareholders!!!
In reality everybody is exposed here - both small and large shaeholders - if not done fairly and with all shareholders' interests in mind.
EGM followed by fundraise with particiaption of most shareholders would be ideal, I am just not sure if there is enough time. Should have been planned a while back as plan B!! A fundraise has actually been my preference for some time, but now it's a different situation due to the deadline. The CEO has also repeatedly and categorically said it was not a part of the plan to have a fundraise.