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Terry: As you know - you're preaching to the converted with me. However, it seems that good ole Rusty just doesn't get it though - no matter how low the SP goes! Maybe Rusty that has taken out a big short eh? LoL
I'd be interested in the reasoning too.
Cheers all, 2nd day with some sunshine, so I'm making the most of it. More snow expected before month end.
Fair enough Jim - I've no real issue with anything you say there - I reckon we're not far apart at this juncture.
If ever there was a good time for DEC to go on the offensive via an agressive BB campaign - surely it must be now. The current Peel Hunt BB action looks downright gormless - as you intimate.
Like you notrex I am generally not a fan of BBs as these tend mostly tend to favour the BOD by increasing earning per share which BOD use to give themselves bonuses but BB are at the expense of the balance sheet.
However the cases when it is good are
1. Well below NAV
2. Significant saving on dividends against cost of BB
3. For out of favour companies like Oil and Gas to compensate for ESG sell off
4. Burn shorters
There is one more reason for DEC is that they promised BBs and gave the impression these will be significant so if this does not happen it will be another lie and not good for the SP.
The daily size of the BBs is less than a number of my purchases (what a mistake) so at present too low to have a significant effect.
Some people say they do not work but if you look at the days when a decent BBs have been made the SP usually rises against other days where it falls.
Notrex,
I think our views on BBs differed in a few respects.
- when they were first mooted I thought that the price was too high and DEC's cashflow wasn't sufficient to do meaningful BBs without borrowing (which would have made debt figures worse - potentially scaring investors and would have incurred 10% ish interest) .
- I haven't seen any compelling evidence that BBs support the Share Price for any company (it's very difficult to identify cause and effect in the wider market). At recent price levels, buying back shares to save dividend and as undervalued assets would make much more sense than an (illegal) attempt at share price manipulation.
- I'd rather money "returned to investors" was actually returned to me then I'll decide what to do with it!
Now they have spare cash (saved from dividend) so can buy without borrowing and price is low then crack on - but do it sensibly during price falls, not every day, at the same time, at the same level, irrespective of share price action.
RT003: Why?
Would expect a move to 1400 in fairly short order
Morning SD - I hope you've now calmed down after your recent wobbles? I'm actully not really a fan off BBs - IMO they genetally benefit BoDs far more than shareholders. However, when you can buy your own existing Wells via BBs far, far cheaper than you can acquire them - it really is a no brainer. Clearly, new wells will be required in due course as the existing ones deplete - but that isn't going to happen overnight - and the current crocodile nearest the canoe (actually in it chewing at our legs!) is the dire SP. That is without doubt the current imperative - and good ole Rusty can't now argue he's short of shekels to attack the shorts.
@sd235 11:29am
The recent peel hunt interview couple of days back mentioned by |DEC not using the rcf they save over the longer term in the figure/date mentioned 2.75% pa buy paying of the debt from fcf saving 30% in 2030. That plus share buy backs although small and incremental do make a difference longer term…are investors willing to wait that long? Depends an their relative piece of string.
Dazzle
Share price held up very well in the seller off yesterday.
So do we actually need buy backs to lift the share price?
Probably not as they generally don't work BUT can't argue at this bargain price it would appear mad for management not to pile in. Even increasing the RCF to do so.
Hi Jim, Yes - it does rather seem that poor Axe is rather grasping at straws. As you say, even a cursory look at my posting history tells a rather different story! Poor lad is starting to panic I'd say - still, he's a sight better off than us LTHs.
So Jim, what's your view of BBs now - changed your mind or not?
Axe - a simple read of Notrex' historical posts will make it obvious that your opinion is absolute buffoonery!
Looks like it's only 3750 shares each buying day, in a single transaction each time. This appears to be irrespective of share price, shorts increasing or wider market conditions - hardly an intelligent approach requiring a highly paid broker acting on your behalf.
NOTREX = SHORTER peeps. Continually moaning about his loss, moans when share price goes up, trying to use recent investors as a tool for negativity (I will not be selling out as in for long hold, this will double in next 12 to 18 mths).
NOTREX = SHORTER, clear as glass! 9
Dazzle: If the SP continues to fall, even those who recently bought in and lauded what a brilliant opportunity it was (e.g. skiramp and Axe) will be selling out to avoid the fate of us LTH's. Who is then going to buy here?
Terry is correct - they now have the money to undertake an aggressive BB and burn the shorts - it can most certainly be done. However, good ole Rusty still seems determined to buy every gas well on planet Earth - he clearly has a some sort of power complex (wants to play with the big boys?) - and it's very much to the detriment of shareholders - see SP for incontrovertible evidence!
"I understand yah pain and grievances, has anybody vote against Rusty being made? CEO? Did anybody voted against the dividend cut?"
I voted against everything except the ones like keep the auditors and others not associated with directors or dividend cut.
"Write to or send email to DEC BoD of your concerns"
Already have and got ignored until I sent a few reminder emails and then got a standard useless response.
"There are probably people on here buying more than Peel bloody Hunt "
There are probably many people selling more than Peel Hunt and add in the extra shorts.
As I have said many times to stop this SP decline you have to burn the shorters, this company is in play, I recommend a flame thrower not a candle approach. As for the excuses they did not have enough money they seem to have found it to buy more wells, not a great move when you can BB your own wells a lot cheaper than the new ones. Trusty Rusty has only one aim which is to grow the company at all costs especially to existing shareholders.
Notrex
I understand yah pain and grievances, has anybody vote against Rusty being made? CEO? Did anybody voted against the dividend cut? (use it or lose it? So to speak? That’s what voting for and it will send a message to Rusty that we over upon I’m not amused.
It is what it is, unless investors have more/use voting power against board antics then they just have to put up or shut up for the time being. Or sell out to a better paying company with better paying divvy.. best email doug kris (good luck with a reply)
Imo according to the tech analysis there was a head and shoulders pattern formed and we headed down to the neck after the highs recently and we hit the lower gap/window of around £10.79 but the USA gap window was only slightly lower around after $ ex-rate to £10.59 ish from memory. So i am hoping what with weak holders bailing and the share buy backs slowly kicking off ( or kicking the can down the road a tad) maybe if they buy too much it goes across a thresh hold of efficiency.
Write to or send email to DEC BoD of your concerns, not that i think anyone will as we have a dum down mentality of putting up with sh.ite and not complaining but moaning or whinging rather than be pro active and do something about it.hense the state of the U.K. in general imho.
Dazzle
Morning Axe - send Rusty my best when you talk to him next - kiss, kiss! LoL
Blow your nose and stop snivelling Notrex! Andrex would be a more appropriate name.
It gone way past pathetic. You now are embarrassing yourself, and it's not a good look.
Well there it is - yet another limp-wristed BB - it really is beyond pathetic. Its deja vous time folks - SP falling whist DEC makes a pitiful and ineffective attempt to bolster it with its latest BB campaign - recently trumpeted. This time they haven't even got the excuse that cash is in short supply - as pointed out by Andy below. The shorts must be loving this.
I agree the buyback sucks.
But they also have to reduce the revolving credit facility down. The Fed is struggling to fight inflation and with Middle East uncertainty. Talk of the Fed not cutting rates, but increasing them further is starting to get louder. Bonds hitting YTD highs. Thankfully most debt is fixed.
It might make sense if they bothered to explain to shareholders the massive difference between the fanfare and the performance by PH. There are probably people on here buying more than Peel bloody Hunt …
DEC were paying out approx. $40million in divi's per quarter. The excellent and brilliantly thought out divi recalibration now gives approx 2/3rds of that as potential divi BB. Soooo, say about $25m in extra BB power per quarter. Add on a bit to that as they were doing a sort of BB anyway and we get to about $10m a month or about $350,000 a day.
An we get?? Ta Dah! Er....£35,000 per ENAT (every now and then).
Excellent job Rusty, Heel Punt, etc.