Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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You might be confusing copper output with Molulu's targeted ore output.
It's about drilling. Unfortunately, last Ann rep shows something like £140k exploration, £497k board wages. July Dec added similar exploration, but needs to be doubled, for phase 1 & 2, but that hasn't been the company's priority. Rewatch the last interview and compare to the RNSed 3% grades 15 months ago. Conclusion: it's all about the drilling
I was in discussion and looking into nearby mines in the Molulu area:
Ruashi - 38000-42000 tons per year
Etoile - 25000-35000 tons per year
Kinsevere - 70000-84000 tons per year
Have a google (-11.36381, 27.56893 Kinsevere) at the scale of these mines then look at Molulu. Quite a stark contrast in the infrastructure. So then I think about the 10000-15000 tons a month claim (120000-180000 tons per annum). This will mean in the next few months Molulu would become the area leader in Copper... or maybe someone who doesn't know the size of the structure he's sat on is just wishing? So my thoughts are whatever RF says we are not going to be hitting 10000 a month, and realistically albeit maybe years away could hit similar to some of these mines but only with drastic expansion which will be at a cost. So this isn't IMO about only the road its about the sales pitch that is coming with these interviews. I looked at the companies behind these mines and they are in the £0.30-£0.50 ranges after years of hard work. So lets not perhaps get ahead of ourselves as a year ago CRTM was in the £0.26 based purely on no product and speculation. So looking at what we have I am thinking buying now with a longterm perception of x5 is acceptable but any more than that is misplaced hope. I absolutely accept no mine is the same and RF could be sat on large deposits but I prefer to benchmark, assess before I move.
To convert the SMEP to a full exploitation licence you need the viable plan and enviromental certificate, but the SMEP can get a one-off five year extension if the Ministry of Mines don't object. The full licence gives a much longer time frame.
OK, so there should be an existing set of env plans from the licence, but i dont see it, a new version would be needed if anything changes (new method, equipment, mining approach, buildings, etc) and probably take closer to three months to get done, but it does need a study to work off. For now, ore sales, shipping off site seem to be fine.
The current SMEP licence expires in December, can be renewed once then a full exploitation licence is needed with feasibility study and enviromental certificate
And from the crtm prospectus:
"The Project is required to be operated within DRC health, safety and environmental laws. The New Mining
Code and the Mining Regulations contain several environmental and health and safety regulations including
the obligation to obtain an Environmental Exploitation Permit from the Ministry of the Environment, obtain
approval for a mitigation and rehabilitation plan and submit an environmental impact study and a project
environmental management plan."
So still to be done.
Its good to ask questions
Interesting question. I thought it was all covered under the small scale mining licence they have (SMEP No. 14784).
Also interesting, that I've not heard RF address, is what is the plan for when the current mining licence expires on 29th December this year ? I believe it is extendable, but from memory in order to extend you have to be able to prove an economically viable mine.
If I'm remembering that correctly, it makes that JORC report and the sales even more important.
Wouldn't crtm need an environmental exploitation certificate from the Ministry of Environment to mine ?
To mine in DRC an environmental exploitation certificate must be issued by the Ministry of Environment after they review a environmental and social impact analysis and environmental management plan and a rehabilitation and mitigation plan. That takes about six months from submission.
Where are Critical Metals?
Normally the ESIA, ESMP and Rehab/Mitigate plan use the feasibility or bankable studies as a base . I don't know if there is a work around from an old ESIA that the licence would have had, but for anything new, they may need to wait until there mining plan is ready to produce the enviromental plans then wait six months for approval.
I don't know, I a trying to work it out
What's wrong Allen/Korriban? Don't like the truth? 😁
Perhaps it will change this time, but it does sound like the same interview again and again for the past 18 months.
You really have to question why RF keeps saying things like "we could ramp up our production from 10'000 to 15'000 (tons) a month just by adding more equipment".
16th March 2023 he said - "By end April, no by end May probably, we’ll be at 10,000 tonnes per month”.
14th June 2023 he said - "Produce minimum of 6,000 tonnes per month, ramp up to 10,000 tonnes per month over the next few months, then potentially up to 15,000 tonnes per month”.
He talks about "ramping up", but production has been what, 6,000 tonnes in total over 18 months ? If that is what is actually ready to go - all we really know is that 2 x 40 tonne trucks have gone to OM Metals before the road couldn't handle any more.
They have never got even any order of magnitude near to 10,000 tonnes per month, or 6,000 tonnes. They doesn't seem to be any mine plan, any equipment ready, or any real infrastructure at Molulu to cope with that sort of ore volume.
It's just silly even to mention volumes like that at the moment.
(but i too find personal insults inapppropriate on a financial investment bb)
This really is a repeat of 2023.
we did a road rebuild and...
we had several buyers interested but only one at a fair price?
we've had to raise £1million to facilitate that sale?
price has utterly tanked over that year so, for new investors this might well be a good bet. for old investors nursing horrible paper losses it's going to take a multibagging to get back to evens.
i'd be happy to go along with that if it weren't for the opacity of the cln fundraise. until that manifests itslef in the first issue of shares and at what price, i'm not confident to be getting back into this and looking for the recovery that everyone wants.
also hate that there's no price on the roadworks nor any info about why there were two placings for the same work?
also rather hate the rerating of the 40p warrants to 10p. implies that 10p will be an easy profit for warrant holders but i find it hard to trust a ceo who engineers personal gain in tandem with retail gain (which has been lacking, considering how many times he's announced it).
waiting on the sidelines until there's better proof. plenty of time to get in on a rise and longer term future.
I must agree with @korriban, it is one thing to identify flaws in management based on a persons professional conduct but labelling them in such away to undermine their appearance is certainly uncouth.
I was reading and listening this morning to Vox Markets with RF and for me it gave the vision but feels like a grand vision but from a starting point perspective which has become repetitive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg5_MZhO5iw&ab_channel=VoxMarkets
8min 10secs "there is a structure we just don't know the length and the width of the structure"
7min 50secs "we will rent out equipment in order to help our mining contractor
6min 40secs "we could ramp up our production from 10'000 to 15'000 (tons) a month just by adding more equipment"
5min 05secs "in our open pit they were mining 2018, 2017 they were mining sulphide ore"
5min 30secs "sell our oxide ore into the market as we mine it"
3min 10secs "we do have inventory ready for off take and we will sell that once the road is rebuilt"
I lose a bit of confidence when RF starts discussing moving from 10'000 to 15'000 simply with more equipment when already stating the structure is unknown. I appreciate he understands the processes and needs to get the road completed first. The 60-90 period started 2 weeks ago when RF stated the road works commenced (so we are nearer 46-76 days I hope). The JORC report should also set out a clearer idea and the sample feedback from South Africa. My question to RF is what inventory tonnage is already present because in 2-3 months I would want/expect immediate production if to invest. I am reviewing my prior investments in copper and looking for a comparable case study to share. I will update soon I hope.
Korriban 👏
I know who I trust between RF and a keyboard warrior 😉
When you come on & refer to someone as "fat boy" I instantly stopped reading. LSE BB is not a tool designed to insult others. Have a good day.
fat boy russell cannot be trusted any more after he failed to notify the market of his sells in a timely manner. this is now a massive avoid. if you're invested you may want to exit now.
what is to stop this piece of s*** from doing the same again? what is to stop this pos from doing something else which rips shareholders off like a placing at a significant discount or death spiral financing? these ******s are allowed to do what they do and face very little to no consequences. maybe its time the ceos are financially penalised by shareholders some way, either through legal means or less honest ways 😁
because its quite clear the dimwits at the fca are way too busy twiddling their thumbs and staring blankly out the window.
@anon.y.mouse valid points but reference point a) I didn't say 'on the 28km stretch there is as you say 8km that needs little rehab'. I quoted @bohercom who extracted the comment from CRTM historic statements that "the last 20km are on a dirt road" (off the N1). My point is CRTM said 20km previously and yesterday its now 28km (https://www.miningreview.com/base-metals/critical-metals-plans-fresh-start-at-molulu/). I am saying CRTM math doesn't add up (historic vs yesterday). I didn't say only 8km needs little rehab thats misleading. The rest of your point is valid on the basis sections of the 28km may not have deteriorated but that's based on speculation.
In reference point b) the big questIon is if and when but should CRTM plan to upgrade the whole 28km as per their statement yesterday this is a positive sign. CRTM wasted much favour with insider trades and lack of transparency and that isn't good management. I hope perhaps the work is done and this isn't an attempt to push along investors with FOMO in a 90 day period whilst more undisclosed events are occurring. Copper has value and on the rise but you need to extract and process or its just words. I will buy when I see the ground truth which isn't through CRTM lens.
@investpest - Maybe worth noting part of the 'dirt' road had already been rehabilitated 22/23, this was solely for the rainy season and solely for the use of Critical Metals getting trucks in and out of Molulu.
The story goes the road rehab increased the local traffic by villagers and 'loggers' in the area so the rehab that had been carried out wasn't sufficient for the 40T trucks that OM Metals were using to collect the copper ore.
I think this answers two of your questions;
a. Maybe this is why the time taken is significantly below what you expect as on the 28km stretch there is as you say 8km that needs little rehab to get to a standard and within the 20km of dirt road there are parts that will not have deteriorated much from prior works.
b. I think in this in mind they have gone the 'whole hog' so to speak, rather than patching only areas of concern in the rainy season or only doing the 20km of dirt road, RF has taken it upon himself to play cautiously get a contractor, price and rehab the full 28km at the same time this should hopefully give a constant supply chain and no delays in production/delivery going forward.
Copper plays are obviously going to get more and more in vogue as the copper price increases, I think you need to invest in the management and with the resource both of which are why I'm invested here in CRTM.
Molulu alone without further M&A has a predicted 15 year mine life and I'd urge you to look at some of the copper grades intercepted in Q323.
@bohercom you hit the nail on the head. I read the same information "Although the route to Lubumbashi City is mainly on the N1 tarred road, the last 20km are on a dirt road. Although the Company plans to fund the upgrading of about 12km of this road". When I saw yesterdays information on "28km" I wondered if a) they read these threads b) someone left the calculator at home that day. Looks like the N1 tarred road is getting an 8km upgrade!
When I read the strong buy positions by @anon.y.mouse I am mindful that the connected company Phoenix Copper through directors is already listed in US and appear at face value a better option, or at least a good template for CRTM to follow. Shared information may give rise to CRTM improving.
@korriban I think 90 day completion of the road would indicate it mustn't be in severe decay if the intention is to make all weather and longterm road worthy for 40tn vehicles to move product. A lot of work goes into road building and is especially impacted by pre-existing, soil condition, terrain and topography etc. The estimated time is 4-7 days per kilometer in the area depending of degredation and provided the road materials, personnel, permissions etc are available. So at the low end I am thinking 110 days and higher 200 days for them to create such a stretch of road. CRTM to prove me wrong and maybe it is I who left the calculator at home today and someone can tell be the speed 1km of road can be rehabilitated especially in an area prone to rain even after the rainy season has passed (https://www.weathercrave.com/weather-forecast-democratic-republic-of-congo/city-610705/weather-forecast-kasenga-today). I will probably have to setup an imagery account to show the current state. Timely they came out 5 days after my post and said road works starting. Maybe they listen to me more than my wife or finally decided to use their money after the rise in negative commentary.
That's a lot of road to be done. Expect 90 days to complete & anything else a bonus. After that game on.
What a great RNS to wake up to Monday morning.
- Confirmation the 28km of roadworks has commenced.
- Offtake agreement with OM Metals still in place.
- US Listing impending should be the end of the month.
Roadworks scheduled to take 60-90 days so essentially between end of June & end of July we should be able to deliver what is on the pad to OM Metals and then restart production with a view of 10k/month as soon as possible.
Look @ the copper prices and you will see the type of profit that will generate @ a £3m MCAP this is an absolute no brainer IMO.
@InvestPest - I for one would be very interested to hear anything you find out about the road. Unfortunately I don't believe that the official CRTM communications are reliable, so any independent information is valuable.
The issue of the suitability of the road was known about since CRTM started, so it is surprising that it's recently become the blocker to any progress. The initial prospectus said -
"Access to the project area is from Lubumbashi City to Malambwe village travelling northwest on the N5 (Kasenga road) on good tarred road, from Malambwe one travels in a NE direction to the Molulu project area which is accessible through “Mama Sifa’s” farm on poor dirt road."
"Although the route to Lubumbashi City is mainly on the N1 tarred road, the last 20km are on a dirt road. Although the Company plans to fund the upgrading of about 12km of this road, until this takes place, there is a risk of difficulties getting to the Project and/or trucking minerals produced from the Project for processing as in the rainy season the dirt roads can become treacherous." .
"Road rehabilitation to commence immediately to provide trucks transporting copper and cobalt ore with a stable access road during the rainy season, which typically runs from October to April;"
"One of the first activities that the Enlarged Group intends to undertake after Re-Admission is rehabilitation of the dirt road leading to the Project. Historically, the road has not been well maintained, which coupled with several rainy seasons, has made the road treacherous. Using a road grader and creating a simple drainage gradient would allow the road to be used in all seasons. The upgraded and improved road would in turn allow for the ore hauling trucks to deliver ore to third-party processing plants in the Lubumbashi or Likasi areas, following expectedly successful oxide mining."
This was all written in 2022.
Funding has also been raised on several occasions - the initial raising in 2022 said $320,000 was to be spent on "capital expenditure including road rehabilitation". There was a raise on 9th Jan 2024 of £215,000, which was to be used for "used for advancing the diamond drilling campaign at Molulu and for the upgrade of the public road to Molulu". Then the latest issue of CLNs on 10th April 2024 to be used for "Improve the public road to Molulu".
It's all very perplexing.
I have been watching CRTM a while and have numerous questions before I make any decisions but the main ones are around leadership, transparency, road worthiness and importantly the potential for profit. To this end I have sought out 2 people with help from my niece online to get the ground truth on the road that appears to be the route cause for investor concern. Ignoring Critical Metals claims I just want to know the feasibility on moving the metals as I cannot invest in something which as the baseline doesn't even have processing covered. I absolutely agree with Katstangler there has been a 'manipulated and deferred progress' report on the mine. So lets get the facts and make an informed decision. I don't seem to be able to update with images so will look elsewhere to post and leave a link here.
But i doubt they'll get an answer: why have there been two placings for the same drilling and roadworks, considering at least one of them benefitted Fryer and his 'insider dealing'. or is he going to say he never knew about the placing until the last minute?
trouble with this share is folk are now too scared to ask real questions for fear it'll harm their chances of getting their cash back so have to be complicit to whateve Fryer does.
I suppose as long as he recovers the share price he'll be forgiven. he'll probably have rerate his 10p warrants down to 5p first, though! (joking... or am i!)
I'll leave you two to chat as can't be bothered speaking to the uninvested who troll this board posting anything negative they can find with half the facts
Just for the avoidance of doubt - every single piece of information in my post is in the public domain. I have no special or inside information. All the information is out there if you look for it.